Morris Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 KNYC struggling to hit the average minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 +7.3 through the 20th at NYC. Warmest August and September pattern at NYC since 2005. +5.5 warmest September +3.1 10th warmest September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 50 degrees at 7 am. Maybe I got under during the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 6z GFS further north with the coastal low precip, up to about Philly with a sharp cutoff-CMC is much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 6z GFS further north with the coastal low precip, up to about Philly with a sharp cutoff-CMC is much further south The strong high will often win out in these cases so I'm leaning towards the southern solutions and we stay dry and cloudy (even sunny). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 The strong high will often win out in these cases so I'm leaning towards the southern solutions and we stay dry and cloudy (even sunny). Agree overall. Some area might see some gusty east winds with the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Feels chilly with the clouds, 61° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 12z GFS continues to move the coastal storm rains north.... through 162 and still moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 12z GFS continues to move the coastal storm rains north.... through 162 and still moving north The main precip gets shunted East. I think this ends up missing but not by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 More interesting, at least to me is the growing confidence of a tropical system in the E Gulf days 7-10 with a trough digging into the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 12z GFS continues to move the coastal storm rains north.... through 162 and still moving north pls no. The lunar eclipse on Sunday is the last good one for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 pls no. The lunar eclipse on Sunday is the last good one for years.that system will probably get a beatdown from the ridge like this wednesday's system will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 that system will probably get a beatdown from the ridge like this wednesday's system will is it two systems or the same system just sitting and spinning? Agree on it missing. Only reason I posted the maps was b/c there's nothing of note to talk about before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 it's the same one. euro forecast from last wed compared to last night's. notice how the bagginess off the coast got shunted from off nj/nyc down to offshore s/n carolina old: new: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 So apparently 6" of rain in one day did not do much to help the vegetation here which has gone back to it's favorite brown. Trees are doing better however as some of that did soak in. Soil moisture is right back to bone dry. This will continue to hurt precip chances moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 So apparently 6" of rain in one day did not do much to help the vegetation here which has gone back to it's favorite brown. Trees are doing better however as some of that did soak in. Soil moisture is right back to bone dry. This will continue to hurt precip chances moving forward I would also think guidance will be too low on high temps...the drier ground will add 1-3 degrees to highs although the lower end of this range will come into play more often with the quickly lowering sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 72/39 in the park and 71/37 in LGA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 18z GFS was making a run for the southern areas at hr 114 only to get stuffed and pushed back south thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 imagine this in a snowstorm-visions of 2/5/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 imagine this in a snowstorm-visions of 2/5/10 You know how much I love rain. If it goes way South like the Euro shows then I won't be disappointed. Close misses are rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 How much further south is the Euro? Canadian also further south too. We really need the rain so I'm rooting for it, but that high looks like it's not moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 How much further south is the Euro? Canadian also further south too. We really need the rain so I'm rooting for it, but that high looks like it's not moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I saw a few drops around 7pm...it was p'cldy during the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I saw a few drops around 7pm...it was p'cldy during the day...Yeah just a trace...sub 70 degree day here with 69 degree high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Nothing but warm and dry to end the month and begin October. Still haven't dropped below 50F yet. We were fortunate to get rains early this month otherwise we would've gone through September with zero rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 48 here. Great sleeping weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Quick turnaround to the pattern after such a cold February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 If one factors the Atlantic's sea surface temperature anomalies (standardized for the 1950-95 period) into the picture, it appears that October may also wind up dry in parts of the East. The standardized anomalies are relatively close to those of 1982 heading toward October. The area of dry anomalies for the past 30 days lines up quite well with those of September 1982. October 1982 was particularly dry from the Ohio Valley into New England and across parts of Texas. The latest run of the CFSv2 lends support to the idea of dry conditions in from the Ohio Valley into New England. However, the CFSv2 does not always fare well when it comes to forecasting precipitation anomalies. Its forecasts for September were much too wet nationwide. The GFS ensembles currently suggest that October could begin on the dry side in parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. In contrast, the latest run of the GFS shows the potential for a significant rainfall late in the first week in October followed by a fairly sharp cold shot shortly afterward. Of course, one is dealing with the extended range, so there's a lot of uncertainty, especially as the current El Niño is already a strong one, while the 1982-83 El Niño was rapidly developing. The main point is that the potential exists for a continuation of the current generally dry conditions in October. But there's enough uncertainty that such an outcome isn't assured. Subsequent guidance will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 If one factors the Atlantic's anomalies (standardized for the 1950-95 period) into the picture, it appears that October may also wind up dry in parts of the East. The standardized anomalies are relatively close to those of 1982 heading toward October. The area of dry anomalies for the past 30 days lines up quite well with those of September 1982. October 1982 was particularly dry from the Ohio Valley into New England and across parts of Texas. The latest run of the CFSv2 lends support to the idea of dry conditions in from the Ohio Valley into New England. However, the CFSv2 does not always fare well when it comes to forecasting precipitation anomalies. Its forecasts for September were much too wet nationwide. The GFS ensembles currently suggest that October could begin on the dry side in parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. In contrast, the latest run of the GFS shows the potential for a significant rainfall late in the first week in October followed by a fairly sharp cold shot shortly afterward. Of course, one is dealing with the extended range, so there's a lot of uncertainty, especially as the current El Niño is already a strong one, while the 1982-83 El Niño was rapidly developing. The main point is that the potential exists for a continuation of the current generally dry conditions in October. But there's enough uncertainty that such an outcome isn't assured. Subsequent guidance will be important. late October 1982 there was a noreaster with almost 2" of rain in NYC...At the time I thought it was a good sign for the winter...February had a similar storm with cold air to work with and we know how that worked out...1972 was the opposite with a very wet fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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