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The Last Days Of Summer: September 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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Agree. The GFS had basically been advertising dry for that period for several runs prior to the 12z run the other day. Now it's been back to dry. Ggem too. not sure about the euro.

0Z EURO is basically 0 for the next 240hrs.   None of the mess in the southeast makes it here.

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#2? Central Park

1	1961-09-16	78.0	0
2	2015-09-16	77.5	0
3	1947-09-16	76.8	0
4	1931-09-16	76.7	2
5	1983-09-16	76.3	0
6	1929-09-16	76.0	2

 

That three year top ten warmest month hiatus went out in style with the record cold February.

We have been making up for lost time since May.

 

 

NYC top ten warmest months  since 1869 during 2000's

 

3/01

8/01

10/01

11/01

12/01

1/02

2/02

4/02

10/02

4/05

6/05

8/05

9/05

10/05

1/06

4/06

11/06

12/06

6/08

11/09

3/10

4/10

6/10

7/10

9/10

7/11

11/11

12/11

2/12

3/12

5/15

8/15

9/15...on track...currently..+7....#1...+5.5.....#10...+3.1

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1961 is the warmest September but set a record low on 9/15 of 49 degrees which has been exceeded  three times since then...it also hit 49 on this date in 1961...There is no sign of any upper 40's any time soon...

The absence of a temperature below 50° would be consistent with recent years, especially after 1990. The number of such days has fallen. The 30-year moving average is now down to 1.2 days per September with such readings.

 

Number of Years with 2 or More <50° Temperatures in September

1970-79: 5

1980-89: 4

1990-99: 5

2000-09: 1

2010-14: 0

 

Number of Years with 0 <50° Temperatures in September:

1970-79: 2

1980-89: 1

1990-99: 4

2000-09: 5

2010-14: 4

 

Sept40s09172015.jpg

 

Mean Temperature of 70° or Higher:

1970-79: 3

1980-89: 3

1990-99: 1

2000-09: 3

2010-14: 2

 

Sept09172015.jpg

 

Decadal Trend (1980-2014):

New York City: +0.3°C/decade

Northeast: +0.8°C/decade

NWS Eastern Region: +0.6°C/decade

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I would also argue that it isn't accurate to say we've been torching since May. Certainly, the months of May and September, and to a somewhat lesser extent, August, were anomalously warm, and therefore the summer feels quite extended this year (much like a cold Nov and March would make winter feel long). However, June and July were not that warm relative to normal. The more accurate description of this summer is a "bookend blowtorch" due to May and Aug-Sep.

Screen_Shot_2015_09_16_at_6_42_59_AM.png

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Drought monitor maintained the moderate drought conditions which looks to intensify with virtually no rain for the next 10 days.

I'm not placing any bets on any subtropical activity.

Very locally here we went from some of the biggest deficits in the region to least last week. -9" to -2" with 6" from event one and 1" from event two so there should be a sliver of slight in SE nassua and western suffolk

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Did the park even drop below 70F? If they did it was probably 68-69F for a low. 

 

Wacky 06z gfs solutions in the LR for entertainment purposes Day 9-10. We might actually see a pretty good shot of cool air to end the month with a very strong high that's been showing up for several runs across the north. 

 

Interior parts would see frosty conditions if that were to setup with ideal radiating conditions along with the recent dryness. 

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Did the park even drop below 70F? If they did it was probably 68-69F for a low.

Wacky 06z gfs solutions in the LR for entertainment purposes Day 9-10. We might actually see a pretty good shot of cool air to end the month with a very strong high that's been showing up for several runs across the north.

Interior parts would see frosty conditions if that were to setup with ideal radiating conditions along with the recent dryness.

68 is the low. Could have hit 67 between hours

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The period from 9/26-30 still looking interesting for at least a significant rain event.   GFS has a piece of 500mb enehrgy break from main flow and has it sit over us in the 9/28-30 portion of the mentioned time frame.   The CMC as usual has a stronger system, but too far out to sea to affect us much. But officially the period is suppose to turn out dry, so who knows.   Any comments?

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The period from 9/26-30 still looking interesting for at least a significant rain event.   GFS has a piece of 500mb energy break from main flow and has it sit over us in the 9/28-30 portion of the mentioned time frame.   The CMC as usual as a stronger system, but too far out to sea to affect us much. But officially the period is suppose to turn out dry, so who knows.   Any comments?

the problem is that it's always 7-10 days away.  GFS had a similar setup for next week and now it's back to dry and warm

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We should see 80F in the first week of October this year, IMO.

the average October max for NYC since 1870 is 80 degrees...the 1940's averaged 84.9 for an October max...the 1950's averaged 83.6...the 1970's averaged 78.1 for an October max..So I too think 80 degrees is possible in October...

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