JerseyWx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Sunrise on a day that should become New York City's record-breaking 109th day with an 80° or above temperature: And maybe even another 90°, which would probably be the last. Really nice shot, I think the boats make it look even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 couple of burp/fantasy runs there. Agree. The GFS had basically been advertising dry for that period for several runs prior to the 12z run the other day. Now it's been back to dry. Ggem too. not sure about the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 couple of burp/fantasy runs there.The GEFS still have normal precip here week 2 with above average precip just South and below average over Upstste NY and NNE. You honestly can't expect global models to have a clue that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 NYC RECORD NUMBER OF 80'S REACHED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Agree. The GFS had basically been advertising dry for that period for several runs prior to the 12z run the other day. Now it's been back to dry. Ggem too. not sure about the euro. 0Z EURO is basically 0 for the next 240hrs. None of the mess in the southeast makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 85 here already-today would do mid July proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 #2? Central Park 1 1961-09-16 78.0 0 2 2015-09-16 77.5 0 3 1947-09-16 76.8 0 4 1931-09-16 76.7 2 5 1983-09-16 76.3 0 6 1929-09-16 76.0 2 That three year top ten warmest month hiatus went out in style with the record cold February. We have been making up for lost time since May. NYC top ten warmest months since 1869 during 2000's 3/01 8/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 1/02 2/02 4/02 10/02 4/05 6/05 8/05 9/05 10/05 1/06 4/06 11/06 12/06 6/08 11/09 3/10 4/10 6/10 7/10 9/10 7/11 11/11 12/11 2/12 3/12 5/15 8/15 9/15...on track...currently..+7....#1...+5.5.....#10...+3.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 1961 is the warmest September but set a record low on 9/15 of 49 degrees which has been exceeded three times since then...it also hit 49 on this date in 1961...There is no sign of any upper 40's any time soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 1961 is the warmest September but set a record low on 9/15 of 49 degrees which has been exceeded three times since then...it also hit 49 on this date in 1961...There is no sign of any upper 40's any time soon... The absence of a temperature below 50° would be consistent with recent years, especially after 1990. The number of such days has fallen. The 30-year moving average is now down to 1.2 days per September with such readings. Number of Years with 2 or More <50° Temperatures in September 1970-79: 5 1980-89: 4 1990-99: 5 2000-09: 1 2010-14: 0 Number of Years with 0 <50° Temperatures in September: 1970-79: 2 1980-89: 1 1990-99: 4 2000-09: 5 2010-14: 4 Mean Temperature of 70° or Higher: 1970-79: 3 1980-89: 3 1990-99: 1 2000-09: 3 2010-14: 2 Decadal Trend (1980-2014): New York City: +0.3°C/decade Northeast: +0.8°C/decade NWS Eastern Region: +0.6°C/decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I would also argue that it isn't accurate to say we've been torching since May. Certainly, the months of May and September, and to a somewhat lesser extent, August, were anomalously warm, and therefore the summer feels quite extended this year (much like a cold Nov and March would make winter feel long). However, June and July were not that warm relative to normal. The more accurate description of this summer is a "bookend blowtorch" due to May and Aug-Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Park and KEWR hit 88. KLGA 87 and KJFK 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Park and KEWR hit 88. KLGA 87 and KJFK 84 Amazing, what's the average high now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Amazing, what's the average high now? I think 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 NYC only 4 degrees off the record high with a +11 on the day so far. MAXIMUM 89 111 PM 93 1991 75 14 73MINIMUM 68 545 AM 45 1986 61 7 55AVERAGE 79 68 11 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 NYC only 4 degrees off the record high with a +11 on the day so far. MAXIMUM 89 111 PM 93 1991 75 14 73 MINIMUM 68 545 AM 45 1986 61 7 55 AVERAGE 79 68 11 64 Tomorrow we're already at a 75/60 average. We're racking up the positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Newark also hit 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Drought monitor maintained the moderate drought conditions which looks to intensify with virtually no rain for the next 10 days. I'm not placing any bets on any subtropical activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Drought monitor maintained the moderate drought conditions which looks to intensify with virtually no rain for the next 10 days. I'm not placing any bets on any subtropical activity. Very locally here we went from some of the biggest deficits in the region to least last week. -9" to -2" with 6" from event one and 1" from event two so there should be a sliver of slight in SE nassua and western suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 The park is struggling to hit mid-summer average lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Did the park even drop below 70F? If they did it was probably 68-69F for a low. Wacky 06z gfs solutions in the LR for entertainment purposes Day 9-10. We might actually see a pretty good shot of cool air to end the month with a very strong high that's been showing up for several runs across the north. Interior parts would see frosty conditions if that were to setup with ideal radiating conditions along with the recent dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Did the park even drop below 70F? If they did it was probably 68-69F for a low. Wacky 06z gfs solutions in the LR for entertainment purposes Day 9-10. We might actually see a pretty good shot of cool air to end the month with a very strong high that's been showing up for several runs across the north. Interior parts would see frosty conditions if that were to setup with ideal radiating conditions along with the recent dryness. 68 is the low. Could have hit 67 between hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Another sunrise on another warm September morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 could tomorrow be our last 80 degree day of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 LGA racks up 2 more 70 degree lows yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 The period from 9/26-30 still looking interesting for at least a significant rain event. GFS has a piece of 500mb enehrgy break from main flow and has it sit over us in the 9/28-30 portion of the mentioned time frame. The CMC as usual has a stronger system, but too far out to sea to affect us much. But officially the period is suppose to turn out dry, so who knows. Any comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 The period from 9/26-30 still looking interesting for at least a significant rain event. GFS has a piece of 500mb energy break from main flow and has it sit over us in the 9/28-30 portion of the mentioned time frame. The CMC as usual as a stronger system, but too far out to sea to affect us much. But officially the period is suppose to turn out dry, so who knows. Any comments? the problem is that it's always 7-10 days away. GFS had a similar setup for next week and now it's back to dry and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Impressive diurnal ranges here all week. Although highs have been warm, the dry airmass permits overnight minima to fall to near normal values for suburbia. My high / low splits this week: 14th: 74/50 15th: 82/52 16th: 84/55 17th: 86/55 18th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 We should see 80F in the first week of October this year, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 the problem is that it's always 7-10 days away. GFS had a similar setup for next week and now it's back to dry and warm That blocking ridge over SE Canada is so strong that the disturbances to the south are getting shunted east in the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 We should see 80F in the first week of October this year, IMO. the average October max for NYC since 1870 is 80 degrees...the 1940's averaged 84.9 for an October max...the 1950's averaged 83.6...the 1970's averaged 78.1 for an October max..So I too think 80 degrees is possible in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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