mob1 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The 12Z GFS has quite the rainstorm for next Wednesday, let's hope it comes to fruition as many still need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 12z GFS has a cutter that just dries up as it goes to our north and west this weekend and then there's a funny evolution of a coastal for next Tue-Wed low moves very slowly from well off the SE coast due north to near Hatteras then dissipates. Could be fantasy IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Beautiful pattern taking shape if this closed low to our Southwest sticks around. Eventually leads to quite the coastal storm days 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The Games Models Play. 12Z shows nothing but rain everyday starting 9/23 continuing to end of run. 5" worth!!! as a matter of fact. Yesterday it was bone dry over the essentially the same timeframe. Que Pasa Aqui? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 12z GFS has a cutter that just dries up as it goes to our north and west this weekend and then there's a funny evolution of a coastal for next Tue-Wed low moves very slowly from well off the SE coast due north to near Hatteras then dissipates. Could be fantasy IMO. How does 6-10" of rain sound over about 4-5 days? That would finally end this horrid drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The Games Model Play. 12Z shows nothing but rain everyday starting 9/23 continuing to end of run. 5" worth!!! as a matter of fact. Yesterday it was bone dry over the essentially the same timeframe. Que Pasa Aqui? The Euro showed a similar pattern developing days 7-10 at 00z. Had to figure that one of the two model camps would cave to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 How does 6-10" of rain sound over about 4-5 days? That would finally end this horrid drought. It would, but this is 7+ days out and I have a hard time buying something like that given how dry it's been. Dry begets dry. Let's see if it's still there this weekend, then I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Even the GGEM has it. Not worried about the storm post day 7, just want to get that closed low cranking day 6. That sets up the whole pattern moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 What in the world on the 12z gfs, I definitely see a tropical connection as well from incoming waves. Let's not forget SSTs are 2-3C above normal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Honestly it's a setup we would drool over in Winter. System drives into the block and reforms off the coast. Tons of overrunning followed by coastal. Main difference is that the initial energy comes from the South rather than the Southwest. It all stems from the closed low day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Honestly it's a setup we would drool over in Winter. System drives into the block and reforms off the coast. Tons of overrunning followed by coastal. Main difference is that the initial energy comes from the South rather than the Southwest. It all stems from the closed low day 6. What a flip these models have done. Lord knows we need the rain so this needs to occur. 5 inches plus wipes the drought out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 What a flip these models have done. Lord knows we need the rain so this needs to occur. 5 inches plus wipes the drought out. I won't be greedy, give me a cut off low near Baltimore that stalls for a couple of days. Onshore flow off the warm waters will bring enough rain to make anyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Up to 90 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I won't be greedy, give me a cut off low near Baltimore that stalls for a couple of days. Onshore flow off the warm waters will bring enough rain to make anyone happy. That would do it, especially if we could get it over a couple days versus a 3 hour deluge that just runs off. Up to 90 here. Another warm one. 85 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I won't be greedy, give me a cut off low near Baltimore that stalls for a couple of days. Onshore flow off the warm waters will bring enough rain to make anyone happy. That would be patchy convection. What we need is a stall near the benchmark. It's not to early to start seeing CCB obviously it's rain but it would be a perfect area wide synoptic event. The kind that really soaks in. By the way I went from -9" to -2" last week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 That would be patchy convection. What we need is a stall near the benchmark. It's not to early to start seeing CCB obviously it's rain but it would be a perfect area wide synoptic event. The kind that really soaks in. By the way I went from -9" to -2" last week!!! We got some, but not enough, about 1.50 from both events. Grass is already burning out again here with the low humidity and cloudless skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 That would be patchy convection. What we need is a stall near the benchmark. It's not to early to start seeing CCB obviously it's rain but it would be a perfect area wide synoptic event. The kind that really soaks in. By the way I went from -9" to -2" last week!!! We saw conveyor belt/deformation dynamics with last Thursday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 CMC has the storm, but there's a sharp northern cutoff over the Delmarva. Dumps a foot of rain over eastern NC. Definitely some comedy for these boring times! - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 NYC 80 (+) days 76 of 81 (7/4: 75, 7/9: 79, 9/9: 79; 9/12: 79) EWR 80 (+) days 78 of 81 (7/4: 79; 9/12: 79) NYC TOP 5 80's streak 1. 62 (7/10-9/9/2015) 2. 59 (6/26-8/23/1944) 3. 41 (7/8-8/17/1943 and 7/4-8/13/2011) 4. 40 (6/20-7/29/1966) EWR 1. 69 straight 80 (+) days (7/5 - 9/11) NYC 80 (+) Days 2015 April: 1 May: 18 Jun: 16 Jul: 29 Aug: 31 Sep: 15 Top 5 for Central Park: 1. 108, 1944 2. 106, 1991 3. 104, 1959 4. 100, 1949 and 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 87 at the park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 87 at the park Wow. Tomorrow might actually have a shot at 90° then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The high temperature at Central Park was 88°. Also a sign that the summer is coming to an end and autumn is approaching: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Down to 68. Hopefully lower than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 NYC is currently at +7 for September. Top ten range is from +3.1#10 and +5.5 #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 NYC is currently at +7 for September. Top ten range is from +3.1#10 and +5.5 #1. #2? Central Park 1 1961-09-16 78.0 0 2 2015-09-16 77.5 0 3 1947-09-16 76.8 0 4 1931-09-16 76.7 2 5 1983-09-16 76.3 0 6 1929-09-16 76.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 NYC is currently at +7 for September. Top ten range is from +3.1#10 and +5.5 #1. Very good chance at a top 3-5 finish, maybe even #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 The high temperature at Central Park was 88°. Also a sign that the summer is coming to an end and autumn is approaching: Fantastic pic Don, also a sign striped bass are migrating and hungry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Sunrise on a day that should become New York City's record-breaking 109th day with an 80° or above temperature: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Sunrise on a day that should become New York City's record-breaking 109th day with an 80° or above temperature: wow you are killing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 GFS and CMC back to being bone dry through day 10 of their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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