SACRUS Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Updated weekly sst anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Got all the way up to 99F. Absolulety brutal outdoor conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 You can tell its been dry when Central Park is hotter than Newark. We have about the same conditions today-I'm also at 96 currently. We're looking at day 25 this summer of 100 or hotter, I think we have a shot as it's not 3pm yet here. Edit; 99 at 3pm, pretty sure we hit 100 this afternoon or even 101-102, we've had some pretty big late afternoon surges this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Euro at 12z pretty dry for Thursday night now just .75+ and much less NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Not surprising. .I am xpecting just a regular frontal passage with 1-2 hours of some moderate to heavy rain before it shuts off..much like the last 2 overhyped events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 The first winter Nor' Easter to go over these waters is going to go nuclear. The first SEVERAL Nor' Easters will go nuts over that water. It will all be about a cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Euro at 12z pretty dry for Thursday night now just .75+ and much less NW of NYCwhile the system behind it nails western pa/ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Nice heavy rain signal on the GEFS today with an area of 2-3" of rainfall showing up on the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 while the system behind it nails western pa/ny You don't get a dud with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Except we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Not surprising. .I am xpecting just a regular frontal passage with 1-2 hours of some moderate to heavy rain before it shuts off..much like the last 2 overhyped events Just looks like a few scattered showers to me. You will be lucky to get more than a 0.25" with this setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 The first SEVERAL Nor' Easters will go nuts over that water. It will all be about a cold air source. I agree. Not every storm is going to be strong but I do think we see a storm with the most severe coastal impacts since Sandy at some point this fall and winter. I'm talking a real deal nor'easter like 3/11 or 10/96. 60mph+ gusts and moderate to severe coastal flooding. A wake up call but obviously not another Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Like 3 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Except we have What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Like 3 weeks ago I agree, since a rain event busted badly 3 weeks ago that is definitely a great reason to say this event will behave exactly the same way. I am going to call up the NWS and suggest they fire all of there mets and hire you instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 the eps is wetter than the op and has precip further nw on thursday. it's probably just run to run op noise with convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I agree, since a rain event busted badly 3 weeks ago that is definitely a great reason to say this event will behave exactly the same way. I am going to call up the NWS and suggest they fire all of there mets and hire you instead. Why use mets when we have u giving model verbatim forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 the eps is wetter than the op and has precip further nw on thursday. it's probably just run to run op noise with convection We need the closed low to dig further South than what the Euro OP shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 You don't get a dud with this setup That 500mb map screams big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Thursday looks almost entirely convective with a wave possibly enhancing precip on the front. The 18z NAM portrays this nicely. Sunday is when we could have a much more organized system. If one of the two events are more likely to bust negatively it is the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 That 500mb map screams big storm. Exactly, that doesn't mean it happens, but during Winter we would be licking our chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Thursday looks almost entirely convective with a wave possibly enhancing precip on the front. The 18z NAM portrays this nicely. Sunday is when we could have a much more organized system. If one of the two events are more likely to bust negatively it is the first one I agree with you and my thoughts concern the first event or non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Exactly, that doesn't mean it happens, but during Winter we would be licking our chops. With no blocking, we risk having the surface low go west and us being dry-slotted, but it's hard to imagine there won't be a decent sized rainmaker with that orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Isnt the NAO negative right now? Idk if that correlates to blocking in late summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Believe it when I see it mode. Driving around today and everything looks so dead or faded. There's plenty of early leaf change and dead, dried out leaves. Middlesex is already in a stage 1 moderate drought and has some of the worst rainfall deficits in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Believe it when I see it mode. Driving around today and everything looks so dead or faded. There's plenty of early leaf change and dead, dried out leaves. Middlesex is already in a stage 1 moderate drought and has some of the worst rainfall deficits in the area. Eh, it's not unusual at all for pro longed dry periods to end with a few larger scale rain events. I am playing golf Friday and Saturday so hopefully those two days are mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 today was the hottest day of the year...2014 had it's hottest day in September also...Many other years also... NYC's highest temperature and month. 2015...........97.................September 2014...........92.................September 2013...........98.................July2012...........100...............July2011...........104...............July2010...........103...............July2009...........92.................April/Aug.2008...........96.................June/July2007...........92.................July/August2006...........97.................August2005...........99.................August2004...........91.................June2003...........94.................July2002...........98.................August2001...........103...............August2000...........93.................May1999...........101...............July1998...........93.................July1997...........97.................July1996...........96.................May1995...........102...............July1994...........98.................June1993...........102...............July1992...........93.................May/July1991...........102...............July1990...........95.................July1989...........96.................July1988...........99.................July/Aug.1987...........97.................May1986...........98.................July1985...........95.................August1984...........96.................June1983...........99.................September1982...........98.................July1981...........96.................July1980...........102...............July1979...........95.................July/Aug.1978...........95.................July1977...........104...............July1976...........96.................April1975...........98.................August1974...........95.................July1973...........98.................August1972...........94.................July/Aug.1971...........96.................July1970...........94.................July/Aug/Sept.1969...........97.................May1968...........98.................July1967...........96.................June1966...........103...............July1965...........95.................June1964...........99.................June/July1963...........98.................July1962...........99.................May.1961...........97.................July1960...........91.................July/Aug.1959...........97.................June1958...........93.................July..Some other years...1881...........101...............September1895...........97.................September1898...........100...............July1901...........100...............July1902...........90................July1911...........100...............July1914...........95.................September1915...........94.................September1918...........104...............August1921...........96.................September1925...........99.................June1926...........100...............July 1929...........99.................September1930...........102...............July1931...........99.................September1932...........96.................September1933...........102...............July1934...........101...............June1936...........106...............July1937...........102...............July1944...........102...............August1948...........103...............August1949...........102...............July1950...........95.................June1952...........100...............June1953...........102...............September1954...........100...............July1955...........100...............July/Aug.1957...........101...............JulyThe latest date for the hottest annual temperature is 97 on 9/23/1895...95 on 9/22/1914 99 9/11/1983...The earliest date is 96 on 4/18/1976... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Man is it hot out there. The sun was just incredibly strong today, and honestly it felt like the hottest day all Summer here by far. High was 94° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 EWR hit 98F sometime back in July I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Would today's setup with July's sun angle and daylight have produced over 100 degrees temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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