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The Last Days Of Summer: September 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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There will be plenty of days in the 80s through the last week of September this year. Likely will be a top 10 or top 5 warmest September on record; I think I went too low with the +3.5 forecast for the I-95 corridor.

Any chance of a top 2-3 finish or even number 1? I realize it's very early but more heat looks like a lock.

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Remember 2002? Dry and hot and then Labor Day came and a noreaster every few days. This year's later, but looks like it's starting to show up on modeling.

I was talking about that weekend with coworkers at the beach this weekend. It was a pretty strong nor'easter for the time of year. We had winds in the 40s for two days. Just an absolute sand storm. Huge huge waves too. I went back to school in Maryland the next week an missed at ton of waves that fall. That winter was epic. Especially down there with 33" presidents week. Let's hope we see something similar

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The high temperature so far at Central Park is 97°. That's the warmest September temperature since 9/11/1983 when the temperature hit 99°.

 

The dried out vegetation at the park really helped NYC have more realistic temps for Manhattan this summer.

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The dried out vegetation at the park really helped NYC have more realistic temps for Manhattan this summer.

If this isn't proof of that theory I don't know what is.

Blow torch in the city right now for sure. Water

Temps at the beach this weekend had the old timmers saying warmest this late in the season they have seen. The Atlantic is a bath tub

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The dried out vegetation at the park really helped NYC have more realistic temps for Manhattan this summer.

Yup this has been obvious all summer. Remember the few days after NYC received 2" of rain, they were a couple degrees below most other reporting stations? As soon as the area dried out again, that issue disappeared.

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If this isn't proof of that theory I don't know what is.

Blow torch in the city right now for sure. Water

Temps at the beach this weekend had the old timmers saying warmest this late in the season they have seen. The Atlantic is a bath tub

The obs back them up. I am seeing 75-80 deg offshore waters clear up to near Atlantic Canada. Some mid-upper 80s around Bermuda.

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If this isn't proof of that theory I don't know what is.

Blow torch in the city right now for sure. Water

Temps at the beach this weekend had the old timmers saying warmest this late in the season they have seen. The Atlantic is a bath tub

And to think that just months ago, folks were looking out over frozen seas and lamenting the inevitably chilly summertime waters. Bizarre.

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The dried out vegetation at the park really helped NYC have more realistic temps for Manhattan this summer.

 

For part of the summer for sure (Aug -on).  Some of the the borderline days in Jun/Jul were likely still influenced by the vegetation somewhat.   This should be good evidence to keep it cleaned up there all season long to better reflect the metro area.

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9/13 could end the streak of 80's assuming it stays overcast with the rain potential.  Overall ridge over trouble water pattern as cutoff undercuts ridge.  Once the cutoff moves out its warm again above normal and likely back into the 80s.  90s could be possible within the period 9/16-9/20 in the warmer spots but rains could keep the park on the cooler side again and enough rain could cap the region.

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