IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Looks like all the models are showing the pattern change now.Finally. I welcome the cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'm not seeing a full-scale pattern change, at least not yet. It appears to be a transient cool shot - which is relatively common as we approach the autumnal equinox - followed thereafter by rapidly building mid level heights. The warmth will likely not be as robust, due in part to decreasing solar insolation, but warmer than normal airmasses should still dominate in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'm not seeing a full-scale pattern change, at least not yet. It appears to be a transient cool shot - which is relatively common as we approach the autumnal equinox - followed thereafter by rapidly building mid level heights. The warmth will likely not be as robust, due in part to decreasing solar insolation, but warmer than normal airmasses should still dominate in the means.I agree. It's doesn't like look like a full-scale pattern change, but we will finally have high temperatures below 80F for a few days from the 11th. Looks like something bigger is brewing after the 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The GFS has some lows reaching the 40's for the NW burbs the week after next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The GFS has some lows reaching the 40's for the NW burbs the week after nextYeah. It looks like it will be very cool on the 10th and the 11th. Lows in the 50s and highs in the low to mid 70s on those days. That's for the NYC Metropolitan Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Labor Day weekend is looking like a gem on the GFS. Cool nights, warm days, sunny skies and dew points in the 40's and 50's. Chilly enough for a sweatshirt at night and warm enough for shorts during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Labor Day weekend is looking like a gem on the GFS. Cool nights, warm days, sunny skies and dew points in the 40's and 50's. Chilly enough for a sweatshirt at night and warm enough for shorts during the day. That sounds great. That's campfire weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Sweatshirt is pushing it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Sweatshirt is pushing it lol For the North and West, it depends. It'll be in the low to upper 50s (depending on location and elevation) for the nighttime lows. That could put a chill through your spine after all the heat we have been dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Sweatshirt is pushing it lol Always a wise guy. If 50's and lower 60's doesn't qualify as sweatshirt weather to you then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 If the high pressure anchored north east of Maine sets up shop as modeled, we should have excellent weather over the weekend. It should help to keep the humidity in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 As mentioned, Saturday through Monday features warm, sunny skies with very low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Then the following weekend looks downright chilly with highs possibly not eclipsing 65F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 the gfs has had a 2m cold bias all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 the gfs has had a 2m cold bias all summer The 12z Euro is very close, not quite 50's but low to mid 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 the gfs has had a 2m cold bias all summer Even so. The Euro isn't doing any better. It lost the cold front/trough and replaced it with a massive ridge dominating the southern half of the US by the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Charleston airport reported over 7 inches of rain. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The 12z Euro is very close, not quite 50's but low to mid 60's. Could be over done with not reaching 60° IMO. It's the same when it shows 100° in July a week or so out, and it turns out to be 91°. I hate when weather changes drastically like that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The 12z Euro is very close, not quite 50's but low to mid 60's. When do you see that for? I see the euro as having positive anomalies straight through hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 We really need rain here in southern Westchester. Almost every lawn and field is a parched brown from the warmth and lack of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 And the decline into winter begins, looking forward to a more active pattern storm wise since things have been pretty quiet for the most part over the last 4-5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 The Euro and GFS are almost total opposites for D9-D10. The GFS continues to emphasise a massive trough sweeping through the area. The Euro has a very weak trough passing through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Currently 64 @ 415am Average low for 9/1 is 55... Warmest night in awhile up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Sunrise on a summer-like start to meteorological fall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 We are going to see impressive warm departures for the first 10 days of September. Forecast pattern looks like current heat pulse next several days followed by another one next week. current heat round 2 heat next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Another wonderful way to start the day and month in the city. +10 minimum departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 You will wish it was still August. GO September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Is there any way to track average dewpoints per month over the data record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I think September will end up averaging around 70.0 which is about two degrees above average...Hot dry Summers that change to cool wet Falls usually have good winters...We have the heat and dryness now...All we need is for the storms to get going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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