September 2015 Temperature Forecast Contest

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for September 2015

 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS___ cla ____ORD_ATL_IAH___ exp ____TOTAL

   

ksammut _________________ 98 _ 68 _ 90 ____ 256 ____ 50 _ 58 _ 82 ____ 190 __ 446

_____________ (-2%) ______ 96 _ 67 _ 86 ____ 251 ____ 49 _ 57 _ 80 ____ 186 _____ 437

Isotherm _________________ 88 _ 56 _ 74 ____ 218 ____ 52 _ 70 _ 82 ____ 204 _____ 422

Rjay ____________________ 86 _ 50 _ 78 ____ 214 ____ 56 _ 60 _ 92 ____ 208 _____ 422

Roger Smith ______________ 82 _ 56 _ 90 ____ 228 ____ 52 _ 60 _ 82 ____ 194 _____ 422

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 88 _ 56 _ 84 ____ 228 ____ 52 _ 62 _ 72 ____ 186 _____ 414

Maxim ___________________ 82 _ 56 _ 70 ____ 208 ____ 88 _ 52 _ 62 ____ 202 _____ 410

Damage in Tolland _________ 96 _ 62 _ 74 ____ 232 ____ 50 _ 56 _ 62 ____ 168 _____ 400

BKViking _________________ 78 _ 48 _ 72 ____ 198 ____ 40 _ 78 _ 82 ____ 200 _____ 398

hudsonvalley21 ____________82 _ 52 _ 68 ____ 202 ____ 54 _ 70 _ 66 ____ 190 _____ 392

..

Consensus _______________ 82 _ 48 _ 62 ____ 192 ____ 50 _ 62 _ 82 ____ 194 _____ 386

.. 

DonSutherland.1 ___________82 _ 46 _ 64 ____ 192 ____ 58 _ 36 _ 92 ____ 186 _____ 378

RodneyS _________________ 96 _ 70 _ 64 ____ 230 ____ 26 _ 50 _ 68 ____ 144 _____ 374

Stebo ____________________72 _ 26 _ 44 ____ 142 ____ 52 _ 76 _ 84 ____ 212 _____ 354

blazess556 _______________ 68 _ 30 _ 40 ____ 138 ____ 50 _ 72 _ 88 ____ 210 _____ 348

wxallannj _________________ 80 _ 38 _ 56 ____ 174 ____ 42 _ 56 _ 68 ____ 166 _____ 340

wxdude64 ________________ 84 _ 40 _ 58 ____ 182 ____ 00 _ 62 _ 94 ____ 156 __ 338

____________ (-4%) _______ 81 _ 38 _ 56 ____ 175 ____ 00 _ 60 _ 90 ____ 150 _____ 325

Tom _____________________74 _ 18 _ 44 ____ 136 ____ 34 _ 66 _ 74 ____ 174 _____ 310

Mallow ___________________54 _ 22 _ 52 ____ 128 ____ 00 _ 80 _100____ 180 _____ 308

SD ______________________52 _ 10 _ 34 ____ 096 ____ 22 _ 80 _ 82 ____ 184 _____ 280

dmillz25 __________________48 _ 10 _ 24 ____ 082 ____ 00 _ 80 _ 92 ____ 172 _____ 254

Tenman Johnson __________ 62 _ 10 _ 24 ____ 096 ____ 22 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 156 _____ 252

 

Normal __________________ 22 _ 00 _ 14 ____ 036 ____ 12 _100 _ 98 ____ 210 _____  246

  

-

 

Final Western contest scoring September 2015

 

FORECASTER ______________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL

 

Rjay ________________________ 07 _ 96 _ 94 _____ 197

Damage in Tolland _____________16 _100_ 76 _____ 192

wxallannj ____________________ 05 _ 84 _ 98 _____ 187

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 08 _ 78 _100_____ 186

 

Consensus __________________ 06 _ 78 _ 98 _____ 182

 

BKViking ____________________ 04 _ 78 _ 94 _____ 176

Stebo _______________________14 _ 78 _ 82 _____ 174

blazess556 ___________________12 _ 74 _ 86 _____ 172

Midlo Snow Maker _____________26 _100_ 42 _____ 168

 

dmillz25 _____________________ 10 _ 70 _ 86 _____ 166

Isotherm _____________________00 _ 80 _ 84 _____ 164

Tom ________________________ 08 _ 74 _ 76 _____ 158

SD _________________________ 00 _ 60 _ 96 _____ 156

Roger Smith __________________06 _ 80 _ 68 _____ 154

..

Normal ______________________ 00 _ 70 _ 90 _____ 154

..

DonSutherland.1 ______________ 00 _ 76 _ 70 _____ 146

Maxim _______________________08 _ 46 _ 86 _____ 140

wxdude64 ___________________ 00 _ 60 _ 82 __ 142

____________ (-4%) ___________00 _ 58 _ 79 _____ 137

ksammut ____________________ 00 _ 32 _ 92 __ 124

_____________ (-2%) _________ 00 _ 31 _ 90 _____ 121

 

Mallow ______________________ 00 _ 78 _ 40 _____ 118

RodneyS ____________________ 00 _ 12 _ 88 _____ 100

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<< ==== UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-SEP ==== >>>>>>

 

 

... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow ... provisional June scoring in post 34

 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months

 

Isotherm ____________573_489_516 __1578___620_532_670 __1822__3400_

..

Consensus __________601_399_449 __1449___640_593_652 __1885__3334

..

Damage in Tolland ____693_475_501 __1669___548_606_496 __1650__3319_ 200 001_1_1

 

DonSutherland.1 _____ 591_419_469 __1479___631_491_642 __1764__3243_ 101 001_1_1__MAR,JUL

wxdude64 ___________556_423_445 __1424___553_568_683 __1804__3228_ 000 000_0_1__JUN

wxallannj ___________ 602_427_449 __1478___575_536_604 __1715__3193_ 101 100

ksammut ____________522_491_559 __1572___559_429_632 __1620__3192_ 001 301_2_0__SEP

RodneyS ___________ 582_445_441 __1468___492_626_600 __1718__3186_ 220 120

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____648_401_405 __1454___557_568_595 __1720__3174_ 300 021_3_2__APR

BKViking ____________532_381_468 __1381___571_618_598 __1787__3168_ 010 000

Tom _______________ 535_366_419 __1320___662_558_616 __1836__3156_ 000 100_0_1

Tenman Johnson _____509_379_325 __1213___571_594_714 __1879__3092_ 111 013_0_1__FEB
Rjay _______________ 574_361_417 __1352___506_572_630 __1708__3060_ 121 010_0_0__MAY
Mallow _____________ 571_402_390 __1363___498_553_638 __1689__3052_ 120 011_1_1__JAN
blazess556 __________595_347_349 __1291___602_548_595 __1745__3036

Stebo ______________ 499_311_335 __1145___566_512_599 __1677__2822_ 100 000

Maxim*______________543_356_353 __1252___476_556_500 __1532__2784_ 100 110
Roger Smith _________ 409_346_500 __1255___480_522_522 __1524__2779_ 001 210_0_0

Absolute Humidity** ___ 470_380_448 __1298___545_413_520 __1478__2776_ 011 000_1_0

..
Normal______________416_308_344 __1068___518_518_646 __1682__2750_ 010 211
..
SD _________________496_263_290 __1049___548_578_556 __1682__2731_ 000 020_0_0__AUG

hudsonvalley21* ______484_340_352 __ 1176___497_466_576 __1539__2715_ 000 102
dmillz25***** _________ 288_160_144 ___592 __ 116 _318_362__ 796__ 1388 _000 010
N. of Pike*****________ 218_148_159 ___525 __ 196_126_140 __ 462 ___987
metalicwx366*******____ 70 _ 92 _ 96 ___ 258 ___ 66 _ 96 _ 42 __ 204 ___462_ 001 010_1_0
mikehobbyst*******____ 101_108 _ 71 ___280 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 50 ___136 ___416_ 111 000_1_0

Quixotic1*******________76 _ 49 _ 60 ___185 ___ 78 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 220 ___405

UnionWeatherWx********_72 _ 32 _ 38 ___142 ___ 78 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 250 ___392

Carvers Gap******______63 _ 39 _ 38 ___140 ___104 _ 60 _ 80 ___244 ___384

Weatherguy701 *******__54 _ 28 _ 29 ___111 ___ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___250 ___ 361_ 000 001_0_1

IntenseBlizzard2014********82_06 _ 22 ___110 ___ 74 _ 92 _ 84 ___250 ___ 360

SACRUS ********_______78 _ 36 _ 40 ___154 ___ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___162 ___ 316
H2OTown__Wx ********__56 _ 28 _ 20 ___104 ___ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____66 ___170
hockeyinc ********______ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____00 ___ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____56 ____ 56
Uncle W ********________00 _ 00 _ 00 ____00 ___ 00 _ 30 _ 10 ____40 ____ 40

[Roger Smith]

Western contest annual updates Jan - Sep 2015

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL __ (all 9 in brackets) = ranks __ best scores (west)

 

Isotherm _______________ 504_519_684 ____1707 ______ (5107) = 1 ________ 1 0 2 __ JUN, JUL

Midlo Snow Maker ________439_560_676____1675 ______ (4849) = 2 ________ 2 2 2 __ JAN

Damage in Tolland _______ 432_547_525____1504 ______ (4823) = 3 ________ 0 3 0 __ AUG

Donsutherland.1 _________ 402_506_566____1474 ______ (4717) = 4 ________ 0 0 0

Roger Smith ____________ 396_421_626 ____1443 ______ (4222) =10 ________0 1 1

Mallow _________________366_506_534____1406 ______ (4458) = 6 ________ 1 1 0

wxdude64 ______________ 491_409_452____1352 ______ (4580) = 5 ________ 1 1 0

..

Consensus ______________418_410_500____1328______ (4662) = 5 ________ 2 0 0

..

Tom ___________________386_463_417 ____1266 ______ (4422) = 8

wxallannj _______________ 391_376_473 ____1240 ______ (4433) = 7

SD ____________________ 390_394_383 ____1167 ______ (3898) =16________ 2 0 0 __ APR

RodneyS _______________ 410_297_439 ____1146 ______ (4332) = 9 ________ 2 0 1

Maxim*_________________ 260_367_504 ____1131 ______ (3915) =15 ________ 0 0 1

blazess556 ______________298_351_468 ____1117 ______ (4153) =11 ________ 0 0 2

..

Normal _________________410_400_306 ____1116 ______ (3866) =17 ________ 0 1 0

..

Rjay ___________________ 305_340_411 ____1056 ______ (4116) =12 ________ 0 0 1 __ SEP

Stebo __________________ 310_328_399 ____1037 ______ (3859) =17 ________ 1 1 0 __ MAY

Absolute Humidity **_______ 352_328_329 ____1009 ______ (3785) =18

hudsonvalley21*__________ 301_369_308 ____ 978 ______ (3693) =19 ________ 0 0 1

BKViking ________________233_310_385 ____ 928 ______ (4096) =13

ksammut ________________268_208_408 ____ 884 ______ (4076) =14

N. of Pike ***** ___________ 217_191_200 ____ 608 ______ (1595) = 22

dmillz25***** _____________ 122_232_252 ____ 606 ______ (1994) =21

mikehobbyst******* ________ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _______ (830) =23 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR

UnionWeatherWx********_____90 _ 22 _ 96 ____ 208 _______ (600) = 24

H2OTown_Wx********_______70 _ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _______ (366) =31

Quixotic.1********__________ 52 _ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _______ (586) =26

Carvers Gap********________ 94 _ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _______ (556) =27 _________ 1 0 0

IntenseBlizzard2014********__ 40 _ 28 _ 84 ____ 152 _______ (512) = 28

metalicwx366 ********_______ 00 _ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _______ (590) =25

Uncle W ********___________ 26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _______ (130) =32

SACRUS********___________ 04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _______ (392) =30

Weatherguy701********______00 _ 08 _ 30 _____ 38 _______ (399) =29

hockeyinc********___________00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ________ (80) =33

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (3092) =20

 

=======================================================

 

* to ******** have missed one to eight months

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast update for Sept 2015

 

The table of extreme forecasts is getting quite long and so if you want to review the cases between January and August, then check the table near the end of the August thread (post 39).

 

Seven more cases this month brings the total for 2015 to 52 out of 81 so far.

 

 

Month _____ City ___________ Anom _________ Extreme __ 2nd ext ________ W-L decision

 

Sep 2015 __ DCA ____________ +3.9 _______ +4.1 (Damage) __ +3.8* _______ Win shared by 3

Sep 2015 __ NYC ____________ +6.4 _______ +4.2 RodneyS ___ +4.1 ________ Win RodneyS

Sep 2015 __ BOS ____________ +4.3 _______ +3.8 Roger _____ +3.8 (pen) ____Win Roger

Sep 2015 __ ORD ____________ +4.4 _______ +3.8 Maxim ____ +2.2 _________Win Maxim

Sep 2015 __ ATL _____________ 0.0 ________ 0.0 Normal ____ +1.0 (three) ___ Win see below

Sep 2015 __ DEN _____________+6.0 _______ +1.8 (Midlo) ____ +1.6 _________Win Midlo

Sep 2015 __ PHX _____________+1.5 _______ +1.7 Rjay _______+1.5 (two) ___ W for two; L Rjay

 

*for DCA, two scores tied with the extreme (Damage in Tolland), one was +3.8 with a 2 point penalty (ksammut) and the other was +3.7 by RodneyS ... all three share the win.

 for ATL, three tied for extreme as all forecasts were positive, actual was zero, so that Normal won  but three forecasters with +1.0 (Mallow, SD, dmillz25) share the win.

 for PHX, Midlo and Damage tied for best forecast which was the second most extreme, thus Rjay gets a loss in the table below ...

 

Win-Loss records

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 9-1

Tenman Johnson _____ 7-0

Damage in Tolland ____7-0

Mikehobbyst _________5-2

Rjay _______________ 5-2

Roger Smith _________ 5-3

RodneyS ____________ 4-2

Isotherm ____________3-0

Mallow _____________ 3-0

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

Maxim ______________2-0

SD _________________2-0

dmillz25 ____________ 2-0

ksammut ____________2-1

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

BKViking ____________1-0

Tom _______________ 1-0

Normal _____________ 1-0

wxdude64 ___________1-2

Donsutherland.1 ______ 0-1

[Roger Smith]

All scoring is now updated, congrats to ksammut for winning the September contest despite a 2% late penalty, and to Rjay for winning the western contest. Isotherm continues to lead in both contests, Damage in Tolland and Midlo Snow Maker are also doing very well overall. I can say that I finally got past my nemesis, Normal.

 

Ready to declare the SEASONAL MAX contest, see post 24 for the full details. The winner was SD who eked out a one-point victory at 18 error points for nine locations, over three others, Damage in Tolland, ksammut and Tom who all had 19 error points. For the eastern three sites, Damage and Maxim had a mere one error point meaning two perfect forecasts and one other being one off the mark. Tom and ksammut had only 2 error points in the east. For the central three, the best score was 8 error points by SD, followed by 10 (RodneyS and wxdude64). Chicago (ORD) gave us the most trouble overall with our consensus error being 7 degrees too high, nobody was too low for ORD. Meanwhile, best in the west was dmillz25 with 3 error points for DEN-PHX-SEA, and second place was shared by four (Rjay, SD, Tom, ksammut) all with four error points. The most perfect forecasts for anyone was three by SD (BOS, IAH, SEA). Quite a few had two correct forecasts including all three of the second place ties, Tenman Johnson, dmillz25 and Maxim. All told it was a really close contest at least in the upper half of the scoring. We were all a bit warm for ATL and quite a bit high for ORD, our closest forecasts for them were 1 and 2 deg too high respectively.

[ksammut]

Thank you Roger.

All scoring is now updated, congrats to ksammut for winning the September contest despite a 2% late penalty, and to Rjay for winning the western contest. Isotherm continues to lead in both contests, Damage in Tolland and Midlo Snow Maker are also doing very well overall. I can say that I finally got past my nemesis, Normal.

 

Ready to declare the SEASONAL MAX contest, see post 24 for the full details. The winner was SD who eked out a one-point victory at 18 error points for nine locations, over three others, Damage in Tolland, ksammut and Tom who all had 19 error points. For the eastern three sites, Damage and Maxim had a mere one error point meaning two perfect forecasts and one other being one off the mark. Tom and ksammut had only 2 error points in the east. For the central three, the best score was 8 error points by SD, followed by 10 (RodneyS and wxdude64). Chicago (ORD) gave us the most trouble overall with our consensus error being 7 degrees too high, nobody was too low for ORD. Meanwhile, best in the west was dmillz25 with 3 error points for DEN-PHX-SEA, and second place was shared by four (Rjay, SD, Tom, ksammut) all with four error points. The most perfect forecasts for anyone was three by SD (BOS, IAH, SEA). Quite a few had two correct forecasts including all three of the second place ties, Tenman Johnson, dmillz25 and Maxim. All told it was a really close contest at least in the upper half of the scoring. We were all a bit warm for ATL and quite a bit high for ORD, our closest forecasts for them were 1 and 2 deg too high respectively.