September 2015 Temperature Forecast Contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (vs 1981-2010 normal values) for these nine locations:

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Late penalties begin after 06z on Tuesday September 1st, 1% per 2h late for the first 36h, then 1% an hour after that.

[dmillz25]

DCA:+1.3

NYC:+1.0

BOS:+0.5

ORD:-1.0

ATL:+1.0

IAH:+0.5

DEN:+1.0

PHX:0.0

SEA:-1.5

[Stebo]

DCA:+2.5

NYC: +2.0
BOS:+1.5
ORD:+2.0
ATL:+1.2
IAH:-0.7
DEN:+1.2
PHX:+0.4
SEA:-1.7

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA:+4.1

BOS:+3.0

NYC +3.8
ORD:+1.9
ATL:+2.2
IAH:+2.0
DEN:+1.3
PHX:+1.5
SEA: -2.0

[Rjay]

DCA:+2.2

NYC:+2.2

BOS:+2.2

ORD:+2.2

ATL:+2.0

IAH:+0.5

DEN:+0.7

PHX:+1.7

SEA:-1.5

[Maxim]

DCA:+3.0

BOS:+2.8

NYC:+3.5
ORD:+3.8
ATL:+2.4
IAH:+2.0
DEN:+0.8
PHX:-1.2
SEA:-1.5

[WEATHER53]

DCA:+2.0

NYC:+1.0

BOS:+0.5

ORD:+0.5

ATL:+2.2

IAH:+1.2

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:+3.0

BOS:+2.7

NYC +3.3
ORD:+2.1
ATL:+1.5
IAH:+1.8
DEN:+0.8
PHX:+0.4
SEA: -0.8

[bkviking]

DCA:+2.8

BOS:+2.9

NYC +3.1

ORD:+1.4

ATL:+1.1

IAH:+1.0

DEN:+0.4

PHX:+0.4

SEA: -1.1

[Tom]

DCA: +2.6

BOS: +1.5

NYC: +1.6

ORD: +1.1

ATL: +1.7

IAH: +1.4

DEN: +0.8

PHX: +0.2

SEA: +0.4

[wxallannj]

DCA: +2.9

BOS: +2.1

NYC: +2.6

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +2.2

IAH: +1.7

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.7

SEA: -0.9

[donsutherland1]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+3.0 ____+3.0 ___+2.5 ___ +2.3 ___+3.2 ___+0.5 _______-1.0  ___+0.3 ____+0.7

[Rjay]

DCA:+3.2

NYC:+3.2

BOS:+3.2

ORD:+2.2

ATL:+2.0

IAH:+0.5

DEN:+0.7

PHX:+1.7

SEA:-1.1

Edited August 31st

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+1.6 ____+1.8 ___+1.9 __ -0.9 ___+1.0 ____+0.1 _______-0.3  ___+0.4 ____+2.2

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5     1.0      1.0            0.5     1.0     1.0         -1.0      -0.5   -1.0 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____   ORD _ ATL _IAH ____ DEN _   PHX _  SEA

 

3.7     4.2      2.5            0.7     2.5     -1.5         -1.4      -2.9   -0.2 

 

[Roger Smith]

+3.0 __ +3.5 __ +3.8 _____ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.0 ______ +0.6 __ +0.5 __ +0.8

[Isotherm]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+3.3       +3.5       +3.0       +2.0      +1.5        +1.0            -0.3         +0.5        0.0

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: +3.3

BOS: +3.5

NYC: +3.5

ORD: +2.0

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +1.5

SEA: + 2.1

[blazess556]

DCA:+2.3
BOS:+1.3

NYC: +2.2
ORD:+1.9
ATL:+1.4
IAH:-0.5
DEN:+1.1
PHX:+0.2
SEA:-1.5

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts September 2015

 

 

 

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland _________ +4.1 _ +3.8 _ +3.0 __ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ --2.0

ksammut _____ (-2%) _______+3.8 _ +4.1 _ +3.8 __ +1.9 _ +2.1 _ --0.8 ___ --1.1 _ --1.9 _ --1.2

RodneyS _________________+3.7 _ +4.2 _ +2.5 __ +0.7 _ +2.5 _ --1.5 ___ --1.4 _ --2.9 _ --0.2

Midlo Snow Maker __________+3.3 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.9 _ +1.5 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.1

Isotherm __________________+3.3 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.3 _ +0.5 __ 0.0

Rjay _____________________+3.2 _ +3.2 _ +3.2 __ +2.2 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.7 _ +1.7 _ --1.1

wxdude64 ____ (-4%) _______+3.1 _ +2.7 _ +2.2 __ --0.8 _ +1.9 _ --0.2 ___ --1.1 _ --0.5 _ +0.1

Roger Smith ______________ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.6 _ +0.5 _ +0.8

Maxim ___________________ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.8 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ --1.2 _ --1.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________+3.0 _ +3.3 _ +2.7 __ +2.1 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 ___ +0.8 _ +0.4 _ --0.8

 

Consensus _______________ +3.0 _ +3.1 _ +2.4 __ +1.9 _ +1.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.6 _ +0.4 _ --0.9

 

DonSutherland.1 ___________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.3 _ +3.2 _ +0.5 ___ --1.0 _ +0.3 _ +0.7

wxallannj _________________ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ +2.1 __ +1.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ___ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ --0.9

BKViking _________________ +2.8 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 __ +1.4 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +0.4 _ +0.4 _ --1.1

Tom _____________________+2.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +1.4 ___ +0.8 _ +0.2 _ +0.4

Stebo ____________________+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.2 _ --0.7 ___ +1.2 _ +0.4 _ --1.7

blazess556 ________________+2.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 __ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ --0.5 ___ +1.1 _ +0.2 _ --1.5

Tenman Johnson ___________+2.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 

Mallow ___________________ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 __ --0.9 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.4 _ +2.2

SD ______________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.0

dmillz25 __________________ +1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ --1.5

_________________________________________________

 

If you're checking your forecasts please note, quite a few people used a template that had NYC and BOS in reverse order. I assume you have the numbers you want but this table won't be in the same order as your forecasts (for NYC-BOS).

 

Consensus is the mean of 10th and 11th ranked forecasts for the first six stations and the 10th ranked for the three western stations. If we get more forecasts (noting Absolute Humidity has not checked in yet) this will change slightly. I have not put in the zero line for normal because it's below all DCA (and most other) forecasts.

 

Good luck, the scoring is finished over in August, and while Isotherm leads in both contests (and therefore the all nine), a rather large chase pack has assembled within 200 of the lead in the "main" contest, it's more of a two person race in the west. To catch up from 240 behind at this point requires an average of 60 more points which over six stations is an average of 10 or a forecast improvement of +0.5 degrees. Meanwhile I would need to call a whole bunch of minus tens to catch up, but we've seen that movie before.

[ksammut]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+3.8__+4.1__+3.8___+1.9____+2.1__-.8__-1.1___-1.9___-1.2

[wxdude64]

Late

DCA +3.1

NYC +2.7

BOS +2.2

ORD -0.8

ATL +1.9

IAH -0.2

DEN -1.1

PHX -0.5

SEA  +0.1

[Roger Smith]

Seasonal Max Contest -- September final countdown

 

This report shows the highest temperatures so far this year at each of the nine locations ... any new maximum values will be reported here and the scores adjusted.

 

7th _ BOS 93 ... 8th _ BOS 96 ... 8th _ NYC 97

 

Numbers in red -- errors that can only increase

Numbers in blue -- errors that can decrease

Totals in green -- your accumulated error points to date

 

 

If further changes occur, the table will be adjusted as necessary.

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

____ Max so far __________ 98 __ 97 __ 96 ____ 92 __ 97 __106 _____ 98 __ 117 __ 95 _____ Total (rank)

 

 

SD ____________________101 3_100 3_ 96 0 __ 94 2_103 6_106 0 ___ 99 1 _114 3_ 95 0 ____ 18 (1)

Tom ___________________98 0_ 97 0_ 94 2 ___ 98 6_101 4_103 3 ____97 1_116 1_ 93 2 ____ 19 (t2)

ksammut _______________ 99 1_ 97 0_ 95 1 ___ 98 6_101 4_103 3 ___ 98 0_115 2_ 97 2 ____ 19 (t2)

Damage in Tolland ________98 0_ 98 1_ 96 0___ 98 6_ 99 2_103 3 ___ 102 4_116 1_ 93 2 ____ 19 (t2)

wxdude64 ______________ 99 1_ 98 1_ 97 1___ 99 7_ 98 1_104 2 ___ 104 6_115 2_ 95 0 ____ 21 (5)

 

Consensus _____________ 100 2_ 98 1_ 97 1___ 99 7_100 3_104 2 ___101 3_116 1_ 94 1 ____ 21 (t5)

 

Tenman Johnson ________ 100 2_ 97 0_ 94 2 ___ 99 7_102 5_104 2 ___ 98 0_116 1_ 91 4 ____ 23 (6)

wxallannj _______________ 97 1_ 95 2_ 95 1___ 98 6_ 99 2_101 5____100 2_113 4_ 94 1 ____ 24 (t7)

Isotherm _______________100 2_ 96 1_ 96 0 ___ 98 6_100 3_103 3___105 7_118 1_ 94 1 ____ 24 (t7)

MidloSnow Maker _________ 99 1_ 98 1_ 97 1___ 98 6_ 98 1_102 4 ___101 3_114 3_ 91 4 ____ 24 (t7)

RodneyS ________________96 2_ 96 1_ 94 2___ 95 3_ 98 1_100 6____104 6_117 0_ 91 4 ____ 25 (t10)

 

Maxim _________________ 98 0_ 97 0_ 97 1___ 99 7_100 3_102 4___ 103 5_116 1_ 91 4 ____ 25 (t10)

BKviking ________________97 1_ 95 2_ 95 1___ 99 7_ 98 1_101 5___ 102 4_115 2_ 92 3 ____ 26 (12)

Absolute Humidity ________ 98 0_ 94 3_ 92 4___101 9_100 3_104 2___100 2_118 1_ 92 3 ____ 27 (t13)

Rjay __________________102 4 _ 98 1_ 98 2 __101 9_101 4_103 3 ___101 3_117 0_ 94 1 ____ 27 (t13)

dmillz25 _______________103 5_101 4_ 97 1 __100 8_101 4_102 4 ___101 3_117 0_ 95 0 ____ 29 (t15)

Mallow ________________ 101 3_ 99 2_ 96 0 __10311_102 5_103 3___100 2_118 1_ 97 2 ____ 29 (t15)

DonSutherland.1 _________101 3_ 97 0_ 97 1 ___98 6_100 3_102 4 ___104 6_116 1_ 90 5 ____ 29 (t15)

Stebo ________________ 102 4_100 3_ 97 1 __10210_102 5_103 3 ___104 6_116 1_ 96 1 ____ 34 (18)

blazess556 _____________103 5_101 4_ 98 2 __10311_104 7_104 2___103 5_117 0_ 97 2 ____ 38 (19)

Roger Smith ___________ 105 7_104 7_102 6__10715_100 3_105 1 ___101 3_121 4_100 5 ____ 51 (20)

 

___________________________________________________________________________

 

Mallow added a prediction of 104 for PDX and so far the max there is 103 (July 30).

[Mallow]

 

 

Mallow added a prediction of 104 for PDX and so far the max there is 103 (July 30).

 

 

I generally did pretty well in the west, but messed up big time out east, especially Chicago.

[Tom]

Roger, thanks for doing all these contests, I don't post often, however learned so much reading posts from you and everyone who posts here....These contests gives amateurs like myself a chance to participate and  have fun.....

[Roger Smith]

Tom, you are doing very well this year, especially the summer months where you won the top points for the main contest. Kevin (Danger in Tolland) also moving up the charts.

 

Meanwhile, here's how September looks after five days ...

 

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (-5d) _______ +7.7 __ +8.3 __ +3.2 ___ +9.5 _ +2.6 _ --1.8 ____ +5.1 __ --3.0 __ --4.9

 

_____ (p12d) ______ +7.5 __ +7.5 __ +5.5 ___ +6.0 _ +1.7 _ --1.0 ____ +3.0 __ --0.2 __ --2.0

 

_____ (p22d) ______ +5.0 __ +5.0 __ +4.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 ____ +1.5 __ --1.5 __ --1.0

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Tom, you are doing very well this year, especially the summer months where you won the top points for the main contest. Kevin (Danger in Tolland) also moving up the charts.

 

Meanwhile, here's how September looks after five days ...

 

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (-5d) _______ +7.7 __ +8.3 __ +3.2 ___ +9.5 _ +2.6 _ --1.8 ____ +5.1 __ --3.0 __ --4.9

 

_____ (p12d) ______ +7.5 __ +7.5 __ +5.5 ___ +6.0 _ +1.7 _ --1.0 ____ +3.0 __ --0.2 __ --2.0

 

_____ (p22d) ______ +5.0 __ +5.0 __ +4.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 ____ +1.5 __ --1.5 __ --1.0

 

 

Well..Damage in Tolland typically leads to Danger as damage is dangerous

 

Thanks. Been a fun year. September is a wire to wire East coast torch. My high numbers aren't going to be high enough 

[Roger Smith]

Heh, I knew that would happen sooner or later, I have quite often typed Danger in Tolland then caught the error and edited in Damage before anyone saw the post. I am not sure why, think it's because I worked with a guy years ago whose nickname was Danger Boy. Anyway, what would really be confusing would be if somebody joined AmWx and used the handle Danger in Tolland.

 

Seasonal max contest table is updated, almost everyone gained one point but former 3rd and 4th places are now 2nd and 3rd, former 2nd Absolute Humidity is now tied 4th with three others. (BOS 93 on 7th).

 

Further breaking news on 8th, BOS has topped out at 96 (max so far), and NYC has also reached 97 adding one to the previous seasonal max, and the table is now updated with a new leader, SD who is one point ahead of Tom, ksammut and Damage in Tolland, all tied for second.

 

Seasonal max contest is probably now decided as record daily highs are coming down below the existing seasonal max values. However, a formal announcement will be made early in October.

[Roger Smith]

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

______ (5d) _______ +7.7 __ +8.3 __ +3.2 ___ +9.5 _ +2.6 _ --1.8 ____ +5.1 __ --3.0 __ --4.9

_____ (10d) _______ +7.0 __ +8.9 __ +6.6 ___ +7.9 _ +2.2 _ --0.1 ____ +4.1 __ --1.2 __ --2.2

_____ (12d) _______ +6.0 __ +8.1 __ +5.6 ___ +5.3 _ +1.4 _ --0.8 ____ +3.8 __ --0.6 __ --0.7

_____ (14d) _______ +4.5 __ +7.0 __ +4.6 ___ +4.2 _ --0.1 _ --1.8 ____ +4.5 __ --0.6 __ --1.0

_____ (15d) _______ +4.2 __ +6.9 __ +4.8 ___ +4.4 _ --0.4 _ --1.6 ____ +4.7 __ --0.6 __ --1.2

_____ (16d) _______ +4.1 __ +7.0 __ +5.0 ___ +4.4 _ --0.6 _ --1.4 ____ +5.0 __ --0.7 __ --1.1

_____ (17d) _______ +4.1 __ +7.2 __ +5.4 ___ +4.6 _ --0.6 _ --1.2 ____ +4.7 __ --0.7 __ --1.3

_____ (18d) _______ +4.2 __ +7.4 __ +5.7 ___ +4.7 _ --0.5 _ --1.1 ____ +4.4 __ --0.6 __ --1.2

_____ (19d) _______ +4.3 __ +7.4 __ +5.8 ___ +4.4 _ --0.3 _ --1.0 ____ +4.1 __ --0.4 __ --1.0

_____ (20d) _______ +4.4 __ +7.3 __ +5.6 ___ +4.1 _ --0.1 _ --0.9 ____ +4.2 __ --0.1 __ --0.8

_____ (21d) _______ +4.1 __ +7.0 __ +5.2 ___ +4.0 _ --0.1 _ --0.6 ____ +4.5 __ --0.2 __ --0.9

_____ (22d) _______ +3.9 __ +6.7 __ +4.9 ___ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.4 ____ +4.7 __ --0.3 __ --1.0

_____ (23d) _______ +3.8 __ +6.6 __ +4.6 ___ +4.1 __ 0.0 _ --0.3 ____ +4.9 __ --0.4 __ --1.0

_____ (24d) _______ +3.7 __ +6.6 __ +4.6 ___ +4.2 _ --0.2 _ --0.3 ____ +5.0 __ --0.2 __ --0.9

_____ (25d) _______ +3.6 __ +6.5 __ +4.4 ___ +4.2 _ --0.4 __ 0.0 ____ +5.2 __ +0.1 __ --0.9

_____ (26d) _______ +3.5 __ +6.4 __ +4.0 ___ +4.3 _ --0.4 _ +0.1 ____ +5.3 __ +0.4 __ --0.9

_____ (27d) _______ +3.5 __ +6.1 __ +3.7 ___ +4.5 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ____ +5.6 __ +0.7 __ --1.0

_____ (28d) _______ +3.7 __ +6.2 __ +3.8 ___ +4.7 _ --0.4 _ --0.1 ____ +5.8 __ +1.0 __ --0.9

_____ (29d) _______ +3.9 __ +6.5 __ +4.2 ___ +4.6 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 ____ +5.8 __ +1.2 __ --0.8

 

_____ (30d) _______ +3.9 __ +6.4 __ +4.3 ___ +4.4 __ 0.0 _ +0.1 ____ +6.0 __ +1.5 __ --0.8