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September 2015 Discussion


Geos

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It looks like a weak "spout" type tornado touched down on the west side of the Cleveland metro at around 5:30PM on Friday. Although the video isn't the clearest, it looks like the funnel/possible tornado is within a mile of where the video was shot and the condensation funnel appears to be on or extremely close to the ground. The local news outlets of course caught wind of this and are calling it a "cold air funnel" which I believe is completely incorrect; this funnel/possible tornado originated from a low topped convective cell just inland from Lake Erie (within a couple of miles)...and there was clear convergence and hence enhanced low level vorticity in that area as several other slow moving, low topped cells developed in that similar area. Considering there were steep low level lapse rates over the warm lake and the immediately adjacent land, this funnel/possible tornado seemed to form from a process more similar to landspouts/waterspouts than cold air funnels. There were at least two other waterspouts farther east up the lakeshore over the near-shore waters Friday afternoon further supporting that idea.

 

Anyways, link to the video:

 

https://www.facebook.com/Megan.A.Webber/videos/10152959257505448/

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It looks like a weak "spout" type tornado touched down on the west side of the Cleveland metro at around 5:30PM on Friday. Although the video isn't the clearest, it looks like the funnel/possible tornado is within a mile of where the video was shot and the condensation funnel appears to be on or extremely close to the ground. The local news outlets of course caught wind of this and are calling it a "cold air funnel" which I believe is completely incorrect; this funnel/possible tornado originated from a low topped convective cell just inland from Lake Erie (within a couple of miles)...and there was clear convergence and hence enhanced low level vorticity in that area as several other slow moving, low topped cells developed in that similar area. Considering there were steep low level lapse rates over the warm lake and the immediately adjacent land, this funnel/possible tornado seemed to form from a process more similar to landspouts/waterspouts than cold air funnels. There were at least two other waterspouts farther east up the lakeshore over the near-shore waters Friday afternoon further supporting that idea.

 

Anyways, link to the video:

 

https://www.facebook.com/Megan.A.Webber/videos/10152959257505448/

 

That's definitely NOT a cold air funnel.

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Yesterday I managed to miss all the rain completely to my south. I didn't even get a drop after days of the forecast showing Friday being wet and the weekend being a semi-washout. Got chilly and gusty by 4:00 pm and had a stellar sunset.

 

Today its gusty with fresh cold air and scattered fall-like clouds. 2-3 days ago both today and tomorrow were to be rain filled and then it changed so it appears my region is escaping all the rain during this change after the ~50 mm on Tuesday we got.

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I was at O'Hare this morning During a long layover. It was pretty damn chilly and also looking out at the lake effect band was pretty epic. Also had the opportunity to fly over the top of it on my way to Syracuse around 11:50am. It was pretty weird to see the sun shining but looking out at the storms training. Pretty cool weather.

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Low this morning at DTW was 47F. Yesterdays low went into the books at 49F (11:59pm), meaning the first official 40s of the season were September 12th, the first since June 2nd's low of 46F.

 

I always use lows in the 40s as a gauge of Fall coming. They happen in summer occasionally, but not too often, at least officially at DTW (usually the rural areas of SE MI sneak a night or two in the 40s sometime during the summer). They did happen a bit more frequently when DTW was a radiational cooling magnet in the '60s-70s.

 

The longest stretch without a low in the 40s was 122 consecutive days, from May 30, 1920 until September 29, 1920.

 

The latest first 40s of the season (using the July 1-June 30 threshold) were in 1933-34 when a low in the 40s wasnt seen until October 5th.

 

Since records began in 1874....13 years saw at least one low in the 40s every month of the calendar year, however again, a huge majority of that was during the period when DTW was a radiational cooling magnet lol.

1891

1894

1940

1950

1965

1967

1970

1971

1972

1976

1979

1982

1984

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