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September 2015 Discussion


Geos

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Saugeen Shores - Kincardine - Southern Bruce County

Issued at 18:57 Tuesday 08 September 2015

Importance: High

At 6:57 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing very strong wind gusts, dime to nickel size hail and heavy rain. Doppler radar indicates that damaging wind up to 100 km/h will affect the area over the next 2 hours. Updated or ended by 8:56 p.m. EDT. At 6:57 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing very strong wind gusts, dime to nickel size hail and heavy rain. Doppler radar indicates that damaging wind up to 100 km/h will affect the area over the next 2 hours.

 

Environment Canada is at it again, just some lightning with rain. I think its the main show today and I'm always on the lookout for severe (not really) or just storms with a punch every time a cold front ends a long heatwave; even if its just showers forecast. Port Elgin has some power outages but I don't know if its from this main wave.

 

EC put me under the same warning as above at 7:53 pm, saying similar things like, "Doppler radar indicates that damaging wind up to 100 km/h will affect the area over the next 2 hours"  :lol: . When it hit, there was some force to it but nothing above 55 km/h. Hail? I don't think so. I checked velocity on radar and they're nowhere near 100 km/h, another F- from me. The cherry on top this time was issuing a severe thunderstorm watch 5 minutes after the warning. What a refreshing way to end the day with a good laugh.

 

EDIT: EC quickly changed the warning at 8:18 pm to have less strong wording stating, "locally severe thunderstorms that may be producing damaging winds. This line of thunderstorms is slowly weakening." Finally at 8:34 pm they just dropped all watches and warnings.

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Yesterday, September 7th, was the hottest day of the year imby. 

 

July 7th, 2010, had an afternoon high of 101 degrees, the hottest day of the year.

July 21st, 2011, had an afternoon high of 99 degrees, the hottest day of the year.

July 17th, 2012, had an afternoon high of 98 degrees, the hottest day of the year.

September 10th, 2013, had an afternoon high of 96 degrees, the hottest day of the year.

June 17th, 2014, had an afternoon high of 90 degrees, the hottest day of the year.

September 7th, 2015, had an afternoon high of 94 degrees, the hottest day of the year so far. 

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The line of storms coming through right now is way more powerful than the ones at 8:00 pm, longer and heavier rains, much more intense lightning and more frequent (louder thunder as well), and the line is thicker and far reaching. Lo and Behold, no warnings or watches from EC!! Just when I thought I saw the last gaffe of the evening, just incredible.

 

This is the 4th torrential downpour in the last 12 hours, uncommon for sure. This one has lasted a solid 30 minutes so far.

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The line of storms coming through right now is way more powerful than the ones at 8:00 pm, longer and heavier rains, much more intense lightning and more frequent (louder thunder as well), and the line is thicker and far reaching. Lo and Behold, no warnings or watches from EC!! Just when I thought I saw the last gaffe of the evening, just incredible.

This is the 4th torrential downpour in the last 12 hours, uncommon for sure. This one has lasted a solid 30 minutes so far.

You bash Environment Canada like it's your job. There were warnings earlier in the day for the appropriate powerful cells that passed through. There was nothing particularly powerful about these storms over the last 24 hrs. As another poster put it, it was mostly an unceremonious frontal pass.

Even if there's lightning and heavy rain, it doesn't always necessitate the need for blanket warnings. If the storms fall below warning criteria (which most did) then EC is completely in the right by not issuing warnings and crying wolf.

Nice to feel the humidity dropping slowly today. Should be a great night to open the windows to the apartment and air out the stuffiness.

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Man the mid and long range is looking really warm after this brief cool down this weekend.

 

Next Monday through Thursday look warm.... then a cold front sweeps through and drops us back again.

 

Every warm up from here on out is weaker than the previous one.

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catchy name but i dont know if we're quite ready for that. Morch brought deviations on a level i personally couldnt have imagined. Its what brought me to this board actually. September is warm but its no morch.

Sent from my iPhone

 

Most likely this month will be above normal, we have a pretty solid head start and at least 1 more weak warmup is showing on on models. Too early to guess, but I'd say +3 to +5 is likely at my location.

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Today was an awesome early Autumn day. Dewpoints between 45-55° and a high of 72°. Little dreary early this morning with cloudy but they broke up pretty quick. 

Already down to 55° under clear skies/calm winds.

 

Looking really chilly Saturday morning!

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_12.png

 

Possible frost by DLL Sunday morning?

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_16.png

 

 

18z GFS showing two above normal days for the whole region next week before another big cool down. Looks like a pretty typical mid September temperature range.

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Today was an awesome early Autumn day. Dewpoints between 45-55° and a high of 72°. Little dreary early this morning with cloudy but they broke up pretty quick. 

Already down to 55° under clear skies/calm winds.

 

Looking really chilly Saturday morning!

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_12.png

 

Possible frost by DLL Sunday morning?

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_16.png

 

 

18z GFS showing two above normal days for the whole region next week before another big cool down. Looks like a pretty typical mid September temperature range.

 

Looks like the cool down will be short lived.

 

610temp.new.gif

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Today was an awesome early Autumn day. Dewpoints between 45-55° and a high of 72°. Little dreary early this morning with cloudy but they broke up pretty quick. 

Already down to 55° under clear skies/calm winds.

 

Looking really chilly Saturday morning!

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_12.png

 

Possible frost by DLL Sunday morning?

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_16.png

 

 

18z GFS showing two above normal days for the whole region next week before another big cool down. Looks like a pretty typical mid September temperature range.

That is probably over done a bit especially downwind of the lakes. Not to mention it is going to be mostly cloudy with showers over the weekend. The 18z GFS is the first run out of any model that doesn't stay consistently warm beyond this weekend so I would use with caution.

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