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September 2015 Discussion


Geos

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It's about that time again... a new month is almost here. First month of meteorological autumn!

 

Looks toasty right now for September 1st for most of us.

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_29.png

 

That'd be interesting.  I remember back in 2013 when we had mid to upper 90s as late as Sep 10th IIRC.  One last hurrah with some heat could be some fun I guess.

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It's about that time again... a new month is almost here. First month of meteorological autumn!

 

Looks toasty right now for September 1st for most of us.

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_29.png

 

I'm not going to complain.  Maybe it will help trigger some rare September severe action, but I'm not gonna hold my breath, just enjoy some summer warmth.

 

I feel like I'm in the minority here, but as much as I love winter, I also like summer heat.

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0z ECMWF showed widespread mid-90's to low 100's across a good portion of the sub-forum for several days next week.

We'll see how warm it gets, as guidance once showed last weekend into this week/weekend being warm/hot, but that's obviously not the case

That would really be impressive if we even had a prolonged period in the low to mid 90s considering how cool it is this week.

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The persistence of that ul ridge on the GFS and EURO through D10 over the area is pretty impressive. Less impressed with the associated dry and boring.

 

99.9% certain the ridge axis won't stay in place as long as they suggest.

 

It never does at this longitude / latitude.

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I'm excited for this mega heatwave coming up, I hope the heat cranks up like its nobody's business. After this week's abysmal weather of cold and overcast non-stop except Friday, its needed. Thankfully it went by in the blink of an eye so I didn't slog through the Hudson ULL crap. This will be the summer's 4th heatwave in my region so overall this summer was average for my personal preferences; very relieved that June was not an indicator of the rest of the season. June is my favorite month, but this one was suckage and then some. This next week will be perfect for the beach.

 

Something unusual about the way these patterns are unfolding, it went from pretty hot to very cold in an amazingly short time 2 weeks ago in which I haven't seen in a number of years. Now we're going from cold and nearly 6 days of overcast and darkness to very hot and "not a cloud in the sky" sunny conditions for 6+ days.

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0z ECMWF showed widespread mid-90's to low 100's across a good portion of the sub-forum for several days next week.

We'll see how warm it gets, as guidance once showed last weekend into this week/weekend being warm/hot, but that's obviously not the case

 

Was that because of those stupid typhoons that were recurving in the Wpac? The teleconnections generated a dip over the Great Lakes I heard? Either way, pissed.

 

Nothing will beat that time we got into the 90's in southern Michigan in the second week of October in 2007.

 

I look at that Canadian Thanksgiving period fondly, that October heat was incredible. It really was a different experience - like it was a fun heat compared to other types if that makes sense. Both really early and really late heat creates euphoric moods and tones. Also because of the changing seasons it smells really great too. Swimming in the middle of October during that was insane.

 

All past Mega El Nino's have cold fall periods.

 

The persistence of that ul ridge on the GFS and EURO through D10 over the area is pretty impressive. Less impressed with the associated dry and boring.

 

99.9% certain the ridge axis won't stay in place as long as they suggest.

 

It never does at this longitude / latitude.

 

Hope its the first one/time. The same for being the first hot Sept and Oct during a Super El Nino. Ideally all the autumn cold will be concentrated in November for the lake effect, and then well above average after (D-J-F-M). About it being boring, that's not much different then usual this year. A heatwave or long lived Sept. torch wouldn't be too boring but I'll take a huge severe event at the end nonetheless.

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Upper 80s in the point for Tue through Saturday here with no 90s.  

 

Looks like 94 degrees will stay the hottest reading at MLI for 2015.  94 degrees was also the hottest reading in 2014 at MLI.  That will make two years in a row that failed to break 95 degrees.  2007 and 2008 were similar, in that we only made it to 92/94 degrees respectively.  Also happened in 1992 and 1993 when we only made 93/94 degrees respectively.  Other than those you would have to go back to sometime before 1932 to find back to back years that failed to reach 95 degrees at MLI.  So, this is kind of a rare thing in these parts.

 

The preceding 5 years..

2013 MLI max 99 degrees

2012 MLI max 104 degrees

2011 MLI max 100 degrees

2010 MLI max 95 degrees

2009 MLI max 95 degrees

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Upper 80s in the point for Tue through Saturday here with no 90s.

Looks like 94 degrees will stay the hottest reading at MLI for 2015. 94 degrees was also the hottest reading in 2014 at MLI. That will make two years in a row that failed to break 95 degrees. 2007 and 2008 were similar, in that we only made it to 92/94 degrees respectively. Also happened in 1992 and 1993 when we only made 93/94 degrees respectively. Other than those you would have to go back to sometime before 1932 to find back to back years that failed to reach 95 degrees at MLI. So, this is kind of a rare thing in these parts.

The preceding 5 years..

2013 MLI max 99 degrees

2012 MLI max 104 degrees

2011 MLI max 100 degrees

2010 MLI max 95 degrees

2009 MLI max 95 degrees

With 850 mb temps around 20c and what looks like decent mixing per forecast soundings, I'd bet you will get into the 90s. 94 may be a bit of a challenge.

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I guess this is something to keep in mind in coming days

 

 

 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  846 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015     SHORT TERM    320 AM CDT    THROUGH TONIGHT...    BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT IS FOG EARLY THIS   MORNING...THEN SMOKE AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPS. DENSE SMOKE   WAS APPARENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER   WISCONSIN AND IOWA. TO SEE A MAP SHOWING SMOKE LOCATION AND DENSITY   CHECK OUT OUR TWITTER (@NWSCHICAGO) AND FACEBOOK (/NWSCHICAGO)   INCLUDING A LINK TO WHERE THAT MAP AND OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE   FOUND.     FOR TODAY EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING   MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (THOUGH LIKELY HAZY THANKS TO THE SMOKE) IN ITS   WAKE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY DUE TO   SMOKE...THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR HOW DENSE SMOKE WILL BE TODAY. LESS   SMOKE MEANS TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND DENSER SMOKE A   BIT COOLER PERHAPS.   IZZI  
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So yeah... The most impressive streak of warmth for the year comes the first week of September.

 

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 85.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
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So yeah... The most impressive streak of warmth for the year comes the first week of September.

 

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 85.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

 

 

Figures doesn't it!?

When everyone comes back from vacations and schools are back in session. Not the first time I've seen this happen.

 

Next couple days look to be the warmest and then mid 80s afterwards.

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Figures doesn't it!?

When everyone comes back from vacations and schools are back in session. Not the first time I've seen this happen.

 

Next couple days look to be the warmest and then mid 80s afterwards.

 

Yeah, will definitely be taking advantage of this warmth. Get a few more beach days before it gets cooler. Luckily I have a few days off this week along with labor day!

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