Tropical Storm Erika

[andyhb]

No model support thus it is more unlikely than the above scenario. Unless you subscribe to the TurtleH philosophy.

 

Please stop with this. Advocating the end for the GA/SC coasts based on a 144 hr prog is just not sound meteorology, end of story.

[Kmlwx]

Please stop with this. Advocating the end for the GA/SC coasts based on a 144 hr prog is just not sound meteorology, end of story.

This thread has been really interesting to watch today

Back on topic, though - you are absolutely right and I'm not sure if it's the fear/doom mongering in people or what. I know we all want meteorological excitement - but whether you subscribe to a single GFS run that will be vastly different in 6 hours or not will not change the outcome. It's a model run yes, and we should consider it but it's not saying that that solution is any more likely than another. 

I think people need to realize there's a difference between "considering a model run" and thinking a model run is close to the final solution. 

You've always been one of my favorite posters - always know things are potentially fun when you pop into Mid-Atl subforum in the severe season. Thanks!

[Stebo]

No model support thus it is more unlikely than the above scenario. Unless you subscribe to the TurtleH philosophy.

Just because it doesn't go over the islands doesn't mean the islands won't have an effect on the system especially if it is tilted to the south... and the models take it very close to the islands. Remember the center is a point but the system is more than just the center.

[andyhb]

This thread has been really interesting to watch today

Back on topic, though - you are absolutely right and I'm not sure if it's the fear/doom mongering in people or what. I know we all want meteorological excitement - but whether you subscribe to a single GFS run that will be vastly different in 6 hours or not will not change the outcome. It's a model run yes, and we should consider it but it's not saying that that solution is any more likely than another. 

I think people need to realize there's a difference between "considering a model run" and thinking a model run is close to the final solution. 

You've always been one of my favorite posters - always know things are potentially fun when you pop into Mid-Atl subforum in the severe season. Thanks!

 

Well part of it is that we haven't had a major cane threaten the US in so long, there's going to inevitably be some that are going to be reposting every model run that shows a Cat 3+ storm.

 

As for the second bolded...

 

[turtlehurricane]

What do you mean lack of, or without, microphysics?

I kind of get what you're trying to say, but dtk has posted (albeit not data) that the GFS has some of the best verification scores for TC tracks. How do you respond to that?

So scientists from other institutions "torpedo" ideas, and then other people publish it instead? I don't even understand what you're trying to accuse the field of with comments like this. Why wouldn't everyone get torpedoed? Why do other scientists' opinions matter before trying to publish?

I find the debate about the utility of global models interesting, especially in a scientific way.

:eyeroll:

I'm saying the meteorology field is overly confrontational and this impedes ideas, people from different institutions rarely work together, more often they attack someone they disagree with rather than help. It often gets personal too, which is unnecessary. I think it is due to an overall lack of funding, so people feel the need to make others look bad. No one should be getting in aggressive arguments over hurricanes, but it happens all the time on the tc list and at conferences. When it comes time to publish the editor usually sends it to the supposed expert on the subject, and at that point they will torpedo you if your results are different than theirs. meteorologists from universities or government barely ever admit they were wrong, I guess they fear admitting inaccuracies in previous work would threaten their funding and position in the organization. These issues are likely present in every field, but may be particularly bad for meteorologists since it is a relatively small field with not enough funding. Everyone is fighting for grants 24/7/365. Debates are more about the money than science, even if someone has the best hurricane idea ever competing institutions have an incentive to make that idea look invalid, usually by nitpicking the **** out of it.

I was going to stay out of this, but I just can't now. As someone who worked with AMS journals extensively and has worked with even the Director of Publications himself, this is a completely baseless insult to hurl at AMS journals which, along with RMetS journals, are the premiere sources of meteorological advancements and research. I personally tend to find degreed meteorologists who hurl insults at them to be ones who were either rejected by them or who couldn't handle peer review critiques of their work to the point of a tantrum throwing two year old.

Of course the AMS doesn't need your personal approval, just like the NWS doesn't need Kevin Martin's forecast seal of approval either.

I was making another thread about this issue before I saw your comment, so we can discuss there. Its more of a matter of inefficiency, greed for publishing costs, lack of viewership, and competition for money. Stay tuned....

And FYI ive successfully published, but the length of time it takes is aggravating and inexcusable.

[jojo762]

This thread has drooped down to lots of bickering.

 

That point aside... Any intensity forecasts/thoughts will generally have to wait until this storm has either passed or gone over HSP. If it passes HSP to the north, like much of the guidance expects, we could be dealing with a hurricane which could strengthen significantly near/over the Bahamas given the very warm SST and forecasted weak shear over the region. But if the system moves over HSP, we likely see a markedly different situation. Regardless of all of that... Erika still has to make it through tomorrow and Friday, which very well may not happen given the strong shear expected to be in place as well as the degree of dry air prevalent just N of the current position. IF Erika is able to both overcome tomorrow/Friday, and pass north of HSP, then things get much, much, much more interesting. But track is also a significant question with anywhere from S. FL to NC Barrier Islands having at least some potential for a direct hit of a strong tropical storm, or hurricane. 

[turtlehurricane]

Just because it doesn't go over the islands doesn't mean the islands won't have an effect on the system especially if it is tilted to the south... and the models take it very close to the islands. Remember the center is a point but the system is more than just the center.

It appears it will trek too close to Hispaniola to avoid interaction, the lack of organization might be erikas saving grace though, if it had a real inner core it would likely become quite disrupted on the current NHC path. It can develop an inner core after Hispaniola and won't have to deal with fragments of the former core.

If it actgally moves over Hispaniola it won't matter though, it'd be a weak TS at best near Florida

[turtlehurricane]

No model support thus it is more unlikely than the above scenario. Unless you subscribe to the TurtleH philosophy.

There's certainly observational support for Erika potentially moving inland over the greater Antilles. It's disorganized so it will go more westerly than if it was a nicely aligned TC. Also convection is dragging the center south due to the direction of vertical shear

[IsentropicLift]

I personally see no harm in people speculating on here about impacts. We're not going on the 11:00 news telling everyone to hide the women and children. It's a board for weather enthusiasts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Odds are usually against a Hugo redux.

[Superstorm93]

Can this please be taken to PM or another thread...

 

12z ECMWF Ens

 

[IsentropicLift]

It's possible that Erika scrapes the coastline from FLL to OBX without making landfall.

[AvantHiatus]

It's possible that Erika scrapes the coastline from FLL to OBX without making landfall.

[geo1]

The fact that you are typing this sentence baffles me.

[Superstorm93]

 000

URNT12 KWBC 262302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 26/22:36:43Z
B. 16 deg 16 min N
059 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 3145 m
D. 27 kt
E. 360 deg 0 nm
F. 091 deg 36 kt
G. 002 deg 67 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 13 C / 3056 m
J. 12 C / 3059 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 1 / 15 nm
P. NOAA3 0305A ERIKA OB 26
STRONG BANDING SE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING SE
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 002 / 67 NM 22:20:49Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 003 / 34 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 20 KTS

[IsentropicLift]

Making a big recovery now nearing the diurnal maximum. Still looks to be South of the LLC but much closer than the rest of the convection associated with the MLC.

[phil882]

I was going to stay out of this, but I just can't now. As someone who worked with AMS journals extensively and has worked with even the Director of Publications himself, this is a completely baseless insult to hurl at AMS journals which, along with RMetS journals, are the premiere sources of meteorological advancements and research. I personally tend to find degreed meteorologists who hurl insults at them to be ones who were either rejected by them or who couldn't handle peer review critiques of their work to the point of a tantrum throwing two year old.

Of course the AMS doesn't need your personal approval, just like the NWS doesn't need Kevin Martin's forecast seal of approval either.

 

I just want to second this. Most here don't realize how good we have it with the AMS journals currently, which do really have an excellent pedigree. Now obviously with any peer reviewed journal system, the quality of the articles are somewhat dictated by the quality of those critiques from those scientists who reviewed the article, but in general, we are in good hands with the current editing staff who really do strive to provide the best quality articles in each journal edition.

[AvantHiatus]

Making a big recovery now nearing the diurnal maximum. Still looks to be South of the LLC but much closer than the rest of the convection associated with the MLC.

[SN_Lover]

Erica is a mess. Lost it's warm core. Essentially a cluster of storms trying to get a LCC now. It's on life support now, hopefully it can survive tomorrow. 

[DopplerWx]

Erica is a mess. Lost it's warm core. Essentially a cluster of storms trying to get a LCC now. It's on life support now, hopefully it can survive tomorrow. 

just need the convection to continue to keep her in tact as she approaches the worst of the shear thru friday. more dry air seems to be creeping down from the north as well.

[CoastalWx]

Erica is a mess. Lost it's warm core. Essentially a cluster of storms trying to get a LCC now. It's on life support now, hopefully it can survive tomorrow. 

 

It looks like what it should be..a weak TS. It has outflow still in all quadrants....I don't think it's as dire as you make it out to be.

[IsentropicLift]

It looks like what it should be..a weak TS. It has outflow still in all quadrants....I don't think it's as dire as you make it out to be.

It really isn't as bad as some people are making it out to be.

 

I think some people on here want this thing to fall apart just so that they can say they were right yesterday when the GFS was showing dissipation. 

[SN_Lover]

It looks like what it should be..a weak TS. It has outflow still in all quadrants....I don't think it's as dire as you make it out to be.

That is true. Lets hope it reconciles tonight. 

[AvantHiatus]

Got any bitcoins?  

I don't need any credentials to tell you that if we're talking probabilities the chances of significantly higher impact than Andrew is near zero at this point.

Only because of the track and 500mb setup. Intensity could be on par with Andrew given the right circumstances. The ULL over the GOM will prevent Erika from crossing over.

[WhiteoutWX]

People should probably take a step back from the 3+ day model runs and look at the current situation first. The current organization and expected near-term conditions mean we have no clue what shape the circulation will be in by the time it reaches the Bahamas. I believe this will pass much closer to Hisponola (possibly right over it) than models are indicating. The shear direction plus dry air to the north both argue for continued deep convection along and south of the low level center. Given that this is still a weak system this may be able to tug the circulation south enough over time to track it right through Puerto Rico and Hispanola, and this type of subtle but constant forcing isn't always handled well by the models. I'd argue that Erika might be in worse shape in 3 days than most models are advertising. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

[CanadianGuy]

The storm has the potential to make Hurricane Andrew look like a walk in the park

 

Only because of the track and 500mb setup. Intensity could be on par with Andrew given the right circumstances. The ULL over the GOM will prevent Erika from crossing over.

It's always fun and interesting to read a tropical storm thread as someone lurking from Canada. IMO, it would be even more fun, interesting, and informative if some people stopped posting ridiculous comments like the two I've quoted above.    

[Siker]

Honestly from an impact perspective I'd be interested in seeing the current LLC finally ejected and having a new one reform eventually under the MLC. A shift southeast in the center could have significant effects on track. But that LLC remains vigorous despite largely being detached from these convective flareups.

[mcwx]

Odds are usually against a Hugo redux.

Until we hear of sightings of the Gray Man of Pawley's Island, South Carolina has nothing to fear!  J/K

[IsentropicLift]

[IsentropicLift]