DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 storms are just a bit south of the coc. still trying to get stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Currently analyzed at 10m/s or roughly 20 knots...and not weakening any time soon. Look at the SHIPS text file...or really anything. You're looking at it real time and not trends. The shear to the north is weakening. Remember the image above is at at a exact time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 You're looking at it real time and not trends. The shear to the north is weakening. Remember the image above it at at a exact time.Not really true, the tendency maps show fluctuations that already occurred, look at current of forecasted shear maps to get a more accurate depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Not really true, the tendency maps show fluctuations that already occurred, look at current of forecasted shear maps to get a more accurate depiction. The shear SE of Puerto Rico is weakening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The last few frames are finally showing some convection developing to the Northeast of the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The last few frames are finally showing some convection developing to the Northeast of the LLC. Looks like it's expanding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Tropical Storm Erika...Circa 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The 12z GFS is coming in noticeably slower this run, we'll see if that has any impacts down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Well 06z had an open wave by 36 hours. 12z has an intact circulation near SE Puerto Rico in 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The center misses Hispaniola but still an open wave by 48 hours. Looks to the right of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Latest estimates up to 45kts 2015AUG26 134500 2.9 1002.8 43.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -64.56 -58.61 UNIFRM N/A -3.9 16.11 57.27 FCST GOES13 27.82015AUG26 141500 2.9 1002.8 43.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -62.56 -57.30 UNIFRM N/A -3.9 16.10 57.40 FCST GOES13 27.72015AUG26 144500 3.0 1001.5 45.0 3.0 3.3 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -55.46 -55.05 IRRCDO N/A -3.9 16.10 57.53 FCST GOES13 27.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks like center is getting more into the convection. ADT # rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 LOL The GFS is really trying, closes off two isobars at hour 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks like center is getting more into the convection. ADT # rising. See that burst near 55W 17N? That's where I think the LLC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Global Hawk Flight http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=_11&zoom=4&lat=38.6000&lng=-98.0000&callsign=NASA872 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 See that burst near 55W 17N? That's where I think the LLC is. Center is around 58W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 There you have it, the GFS has taken a giant leap towards the Euro with an organized system in the Bahamas in five days. Now the GFS dry humping can stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z GGEM on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 T plus Six from the 12z HWRF has a tilted system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 T plus Six from the 12z HWRF has a horribly tilted system Why is it that you must continue to focus on the negativity? We all know this has a long road ahead but you can not ignore recent model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I don't put much (any) stock in the operational GFS for a tropical system at this range, but it's solution would be awful for coastal erosion... That's just a weird creep up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Why is it that you must continue to focus on the negativity? We all know this has a long road ahead but you can not ignore recent model trends. Negative? Probably because it matches exactly what we're seeing right now with regards to the displaced circulation, thus the initialization for this run is actually extremely accurate. Terribly sorry if facts come across as negativity... Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It appears as though the center is, once again, about to become exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Negative? Probably because it matches exactly what we're seeing right now with regards to the displaced circulation, thus the initialization for this run is actually extremely accurate. Terribly sorry if facts come across as negativity... Sent from my SM-G925V Until this thing wants to stack better I think a less than positive outlook is warranted. I've seen this show before, sometimes these things never stack properly. As I said last night this storm is in ugly shape, the optimism for this system doesn't have much support ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Until this thing wants to stack better I think a less than positive outlook is warranted. I've seen this show before, sometimes these things never stack properly. As I said last night this storm is in ugly shape, the optimism for this system doesn't have much support ATM. no model, nor anyone expects erika to vastly improve in organization/strength today or tomorrow. literally every model shows an unorganized mess until it passes north of hispaniola. the optimism comes from the ideal conditions waiting for the storm in the bahamas, not from storms popping south of the coc. it is pretty simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 T plus Six from the 12z HWRF has a tilted system Deepens it to 965 in just under 4 days. Though there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Until this thing wants to stack better I think a less than positive outlook is warranted. I've seen this show before, sometimes these things never stack properly. As I said last night this storm is in ugly shape, the optimism for this system doesn't have much support ATM. Yeah if you mean in the short term then there is not much support for optimism. But as of the 12z runs (barring Euro changes), literally every model deepens this as it reaches the Bahamas. I think that's good support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah if you mean in the short term then there is not much support for optimism. But as of the 12z runs (barring Euro changes), literally every model deepens this as it reaches the Bahamas. I think that's good support. And if there's one thing I've learned from this board for 5 years is when there's good model consensus, they're typically right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks like the convection closer to the LLC is trying to take over while that large convective blob weakens some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 ryan maue just tweeted out a map of ssts, waters from the bahamas up the east coast of fl are steaming. plenty of fuel for erika. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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