Tropical Storm Erika

[wxmx]

I don't see shear the next 3 days to be strong enough to open up Erika. So unless there's significant land interaction, we'll probably have some more Erika for > 5 days.

 

That being said, there's a strong probability that Erika reforms under the strong convection blowing up right now south of the center (there are signs of that happening now). That would increment the risk of getting Hispaniolaized.

[Siker]

I don't see shear the next 3 days to be strong enough to open up Erika. So unless there's significant land interaction, we'll probably have some more Erika for > 5 days.

 

That being said, there's a strong probability that Erika reforms under the strong convection blowing up right now south of the center (there are signs of that happening now). That would increment the risk of getting Hispaniolaized.

Is it reforming or simply being re-covered? Following the shortwave IR loop, the center is fairly distinct before convection spreads towards it; looks like 16.8/55.7 at the end.

[wxmx]

You might be right, but the pulse of convection can pull the circulation to the left of the steering currents, on a more westward path.

Is it reforming or simply being re-covered? Following the shortwave IR loop, the center is fairly distinct before convection spreads towards it; looks like 16.8/55.7 at the end.

[Siker]

You might be right, but the pulse of convection can pull the circulation to the left of the steering currents, on a more westward path.

Yeah I understand, could definitely have some effect. GFS rolls in 5 minutes, it was the outlier of the 0z runs together with the Canadian.

[David Reimer]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 9:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Third flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 9:18:17Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°57'N 55°40'W (15.95N 55.6667W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,137m (10,292ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the N (7°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the N (7°) from the flight level center at 9:11:24Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNE (13°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 145° at 17kts (From the SE at 20mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR CENTER

 

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside t

[David Reimer]

NHC bumped Erika up to 40 knots/45 MPH with the 8 AM update. USAF plane in the E/NE quad at 850 MB just measured a 49 knot FL wind. Making the turn in towards the center now through the NE quad. 

 

115630 1656N 05528W 8433 01595 0153 +141 +090 141038 039 035 007 03
115700 1658N 05528W 8421 01610 0146 +156 +090 136037 038 038 003 00
115730 1700N 05528W 8437 01594 0152 +147 +090 132042 046 034 003 00
115800 1702N 05528W 8425 01606 0157 +138 +090 130046 049 037 005 00
115830 1704N 05528W 8425 01611 0154 +148 +090 121040 045 038 007 03
115900 1705N 05529W 8438 01595 0147 +157 +090 124041 042 035 004 03
115930 1707N 05529W 8425 01607 0145 +161 +090 124040 041 031 000 00
120000 1709N 05529W 8429 01603 0142 +164 +090 124039 040 031 000 00
120030 1711N 05529W 8432 01600 0142 +166 +090 123038 039 030 000 00
120100 1712N 05529W 8428 01606 0144 +163 +090 121038 039 030 000 00
120130 1714N 05529W 8429 01605 0143 +165 +090 120038 039 030 000 00
120200 1716N 05529W 8429 01603 0144 +163 +090 120037 038 030 000 00
120230 1718N 05529W 8429 01603 0142 +168 +090 121037 037 030 000 00
120300 1719N 05530W 8428 01606 0139 +170 +090 123037 038 030 000 00
120330 1721N 05530W 8433 01600 0139 +171 +090 122037 038 030 000 00
120400 1723N 05530W 8429 01608 0140 +172 +090 123037 037 031 000 03
120430 1725N 05530W 8425 01610 0141 +173 +090 118035 037 /// /// 03
120500 1725N 05532W 8431 01606 0140 +173 +090 118032 033 028 000 03
120530 1724N 05533W 8433 01599 0139 +172 +090 118033 033 030 000 00
120600 1722N 05534W 8429 01605 0138 +173 +090 117032 033 031 000 00

[thunderbolt]

The HWRF 6z appears to have a cat 2 just east of Miami on Monday the 31st of August

[IsentropicLift]

The HWRF 6z appears to have a cat 2 just east of Miami on Monday the 31st of August

[IsentropicLift]

Erika appears to be holding its own this morning with  convection continuing to develop closer to the LLC overnight and now persisting into this morning. 

 

The 12z spaghetti guidance continues to be tightly clustered just North of Puerto Rico, then just North or Northeast of Hispaniola in 48-72 hours. 

 

 

Beyond that time frame, Erika should be moving away from the two biggest obstacles it will need to overcome, the Southwesterly shear in the NE Caribbean and the mountainous terrain in the Greater Antilles. Erika would then be entering an area of low wind shear and very high ocean heat content, two factors that would promote steady strengthening right up to a potential landfall in 5-6 days. The latest intensity guidance is split into two distinct camps, the first which would have Erika become a major hurricane in the Bahamas and the second group which keeps Erika relatively weak or a minimal hurricane. It pretty much comes down to just how close Erika gets to Hispaniola. That seems to be the biggest factor with regards to future intensity. (Assuming that Erika is able to maintain itself over the next few days).

 

 

 

If you split the difference, you end up with a cat 1 or cat 2 near the Florida coast in about six days. 

[Kmlwx]

That is some pretty darn good clustering for a Florida hit - with a couple outliers of course. Will be fun to watch how this unfolds the next few days. 

[IsentropicLift]

Trying to think, was Katrina really the last Hurricane to landfall in SE Florida? 10 years ago.

[boulderrr]

Looks like Erika will have some shear and dry air to deal with in the 24-48 hr time frame, though most of the models are calling for it to maintain its strength. The strong storm / east track camp show strengthening during this time period, which seems quite unlikely. Pardon the clutter on this map, but it's showing Erika approaching 20+ kts of shear and an abundance of dry air. I'm surprised there aren't really any models suggesting degeneration. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

The two models that are on the far right side of the guidance also rapidly intensify Erika.  That outlier solution can probably be tossed, which further supports the argument for land interaction down the road.

[IsentropicLift]

Looks like Erika will have some shear and dry air to deal with in the 24-48 hr time frame, though most of the models are calling for it to maintain its strength. The strong storm / east track camp show strengthening during this time period, which seems quite unlikely. Pardon the clutter on this map, but it's showing Erika approaching 20+ kts of shear and an abundance of dry air. I'm surprised there aren't really any models suggesting degeneration. 

 

That dry air is moving Westward.

 

 

Also, shear is decreasing ahead, assuming that the GFS track is too far South.

 

[boulderrr]

Thanks for that IsentropicLift. It does appear there is 20+ kt shear directly in front of Erika, but that it will subside substantially once it passes near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Yeah I think the biggest issue with the intensity forecast is the effects of the Greater Antilles... Not dry air/shear... Especially wrt the GFS. I'm wholly entertained by the latest Euro solution that has a strong storm impacting Miami, curving around the Peninsula affecting all major cities, exiting the coast near Jacksonville, then coming back down across the same point it exited towards Tampa. It seems based on the latest few solutions that if Erika gets decently strong in the western Bahamas, it will curve into Florida and then have a sort of thwarted recurve attempt and be sent back westward or southwestward as the ridge builds back. If Erika remains weaker, it won't try to recurve until it reaches the east central Gulf.

Ish, of course.

The GFS meanwhile seems to have come around a bit showing a very similar track and intensity compared with the 12Z Euro from yesterday. We'll eye of it continues to try to align with the Euro if the Euro can ever get settled down itself, of course.

[Akeem the African Dream]

The HWRF 6z appears to have a cat 2 just east of Miami on Monday the 31st of August

 

 

This run would indicate a miss for Miami by about 100 miles or more up the coast if it makes landfall

 

Trying to think, was Katrina really the last Hurricane to landfall in SE Florida? 10 years ago.

 

 

Yes

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Btw if a mod could help me update the stats line through the day as it is difficult for me while I'm at work, that would be awesome.

[IsentropicLift]

Nice strengthening trend the last few passes.

 

2015AUG26 114500  2.7 1004.8  39.0  2.5 3.0 3.0  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -67.06 -54.04  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.24   56.74  FCST   GOES13 28.3
2015AUG26 121500  2.7 1004.8  39.0  2.7 2.9 3.1  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -65.76 -55.85  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.26   56.87  FCST   GOES13 28.2
2015AUG26 124500  2.7 1004.8  39.0  2.7 3.0 3.4  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -66.56 -58.53  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.19   57.00  FCST   GOES13 28.1
2015AUG26 131500  2.8 1003.8  41.0  2.8 3.2 3.4  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -66.56 -58.38  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.18   57.14  FCST   GOES13 27.9
 

[Austinwx]

Wilma may have not technically made landfall in the SE part of Florida, but she was the last major storm to affect the area.

[IsentropicLift]

Wilma may have not technically made landfall in the SE part of Florida, but she was the last major storm to affect the area.

2005, so still 9 years later.

[Superstorm93]

I feel like I've seen this convective pattern many times over the past few years with weak tropical systems. Large singular convective blowup from the diurnal maximum, that gradually wanes and dies off by the afternoon. If new convection can form over the course of the day and help to repair the titled vortex, then great. However, if this current burst wanes and dies off quickly...I would expect another rough 24 hours for Erika. 

 

 

[Superstorm93]

6 hour convective trends

 

[DopplerWx]

I feel like I've seen this convective pattern many times over the past few years with weak tropical systems. Large singular convective blowup from the diurnal maximum, that gradually wanes and dies off by the afternoon. If new convection can form overt the course of the day and help to repair the titled vortex, then great. However, if this current burst wanes and dies off quickly...I would expect another rough 24 hours for Erika. 

 

 

 

essentially every model doesnt show any strengthening for another 48hrs or so, until it clears hisp. so it is to be expected.

[IsentropicLift]

Obviously not worth much but the NAM does have an intact system in the Bahamas in four days.

 

[SN_Lover]

Nice strengthening trend the last few passes.

 

2015AUG26 114500  2.7 1004.8  39.0  2.5 3.0 3.0  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -67.06 -54.04  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.24   56.74  FCST   GOES13 28.3

2015AUG26 121500  2.7 1004.8  39.0  2.7 2.9 3.1  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -65.76 -55.85  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.26   56.87  FCST   GOES13 28.2

2015AUG26 124500  2.7 1004.8  39.0  2.7 3.0 3.4  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -66.56 -58.53  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.19   57.00  FCST   GOES13 28.1

2015AUG26 131500  2.8 1003.8  41.0  2.8 3.2 3.4  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -66.56 -58.38  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.18   57.14  FCST   GOES13 27.9

 

And confirmed by the Satellites. What a crazy turn of events from yesterday... 

 

[Superstorm93]

[IsentropicLift]

And confirmed by the Satellites. What a crazy turn of events from yesterday... 

 

I'm a bit surprised that the Hurricane hunters didn't find a more organized system. In the latest discussion you can tell that they are starting to lean towards Erika surviving but leave the door open for dissipation. They also cite the ULL near E Cuba adding to the shear. That would seem to contradict this graphic.

 

[SN_Lover]

I'm a bit surprised that the Hurricane hunters didn't find a more organized system. In the latest discussion you can tell that they are starting to lean towards Erika surviving but leave the door open for dissipation. They also cite the ULL near E Cuba adding to the shear. That would seem to contradict this graphic.

Yup, shear is also weakening more than forecasted. 

[Superstorm93]

Yup, shear is also weakening more than forecasted. 

 

Currently analyzed at 10m/s or roughly 20 knots...and not weakening any time soon. Look at the SHIPS text file...or really anything. 

 

 

 

Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to

strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three

days.