turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Really coming into view now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 My best guess based on radar is the center makes landfall in the middle Keys (Marathon area) and then near Cape Sable. I will just get grazed by this here in Broward unless it gets bigger, and it very well might as it approaches the region of maximum frontogenesis. Convection across this tiny but well-defined circulation began flaring up in the past couple hours, maybe it'll become a large convective complex. Could cause some extreme rains where the heaviest precip is already setup along the west coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Yep, those are certainly some thundershowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 My best guess based on radar is the center makes landfall in the middle Keys (Marathon area) and then near Cape Sable. I will just get grazed by this here in Broward unless it gets bigger, and it very well might as it approaches the region of maximum frontogenesis. Convection across this tiny but well-defined circulation began flaring up in the past couple hours, maybe it'll become a large convective complex. Could cause some extreme rains where the heaviest precip is already setup along the west coast... Interested to see what happens overnight and tomorrow with this over the EGOM... Wonder if it still has some chance to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Interested to see what happens overnight and tomorrow with this over the EGOM... Wonder if it still has some chance to redevelop. Sheer should lift it north, but if there's some energy so weak that stays south and makes it into the gulf of Mexico. Maybe, there's a chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Spiral bands overspreading the Keys and southernmost Miami Dade There's a definite wind shift as stations enter the vortex, gusting to 30 mph in the Keys. The thunderstorms in the bands are actually quite deep, extending up to 50,000 feet. Convection started flaring up only 1 hour ago actually, maybe that'll help pull it north. Maybe it'll be a tropical depression in the best track at this point, especially if it does manage to re-develop. It's very tiny but has all the characteristics needed for a tropical cyclone. Only thing in question is probably surface circulation, which will be confirmed by observations in the keys soon. I'll be watching pressure too, if there's a nice little dip in this thing, even 2-4 mb, then it's probably a tropical cyclone. Pressure gradient directly corresponds with presence of a warm core via the hydrostatic equation. Lots of small swirls like this in the tropics every year, most of them don't get classified, but it's a different story when you have one moving into range of NEXRAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Spiral bands overspreading the Keys and southernmost Miami Dade There's a definite wind shift as stations enter the vortex, gusting to 30 mph in the Keys. The thunderstorms in the bands are actually quite deep, extending up to 50,000 feet. Convection started flaring up only 1 hour ago actually, maybe that'll help pull it north. Maybe it'll be a tropical depression in the best track at this point, especially if it does manage to re-develop. It's very tiny but has all the characteristics needed for a tropical cyclone. Only thing in question is probably surface circulation, which will be confirmed by observations in the keys soon. I'll be watching pressure too, if there's a nice little dip in this thing, even 2-4 mb, then it's probably a tropical cyclone. Pressure gradient directly corresponds with presence of a warm core via the hydrostatic equation. Lots of small swirls like this in the tropics every year, most of them don't get classified, but it's a different story when you have one moving into range of NEXRAD. Its a piece of ****. Lets be real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 There is a definite weak area of low pressure some 300 miles south of Miami. Where it goes, nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 If it looked like this at 9 am they would've kept it alive I think. Deep convection over the center for the first time today Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 If it looked like this at 9 am they would've kept it alive I think. Deep convection over the center for the first time today Sent from my iPhone No, they couldn't find an area of low pressure. Now it's trying to start over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 No, they couldn't find an area of low pressure. Now it's trying to start over again.Yeah, it wasn't closed anymore earth relative This is directly over the Gulf Stream too, highest ocean heat content on the entire eastern seaboard. Things spin up quick there, even ****ty remnant circulations. Gulf Stream + frontal convergence + diurnal convective max is a great combo as long as it stays in low shear. If it manages to move over the Everglades it might get very interesting, enough land convergence to tighten it up but still pretty much water so it won't weaken. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeysCurteese Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Update: Power is out all over Upper Key Largo right now and loca flooding is rampant and happening rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Yeah, it wasn't closed anymore earth relative This is directly over the Gulf Stream too, highest ocean heat content on the entire eastern seaboard. Things spin up quick there, even ****ty remnant circulations. Gulf Stream + frontal convergence + diurnal convective max is a great combo as long as it stays in low shear. If it manages to move over the Everglades it might get very interesting, enough land convergence to tighten it up but still pretty much water so it won't weaken. Sent from my iPhone If this goes back to tropical over the Gulf of Mexico, do they still call her Erika? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 If this goes back to tropical over the Gulf of Mexico, do they still call her Erika? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 If this goes back to tropical over the Gulf of Mexico, do they still call her Erika? It's more likely to go tropical right now than in the Gulf of Mexico. Ocean heat content is way higher in the Gulf Stream, the southwest coast of Florida has much lower heat content due to coastal upwelling from Ekman divergence and outflows of fresh water from the Everglades, which forms a cap of fresh water over the saltier water below, inhibiting mixing and reducing total heat content. It certainly wouldn't weaken Erika if she really does develop now, but it's not like the rocket fuel it's currently crossing. Convection is deep, all the way to the tropopause. This is what creates a vertically stacked tropical cyclone. There is obviously low-level convergence, which spirals in towards the deep convection. Mass is then evacuated upwards in the deep convective towers, creating a vacuum effect on the low-levels increasing convergence.The mass being evacuated upwards then hits the tropopause and is forced to spread outwards, and due to angular momentum conservation it creates an anti-cyclone in the upper-levels. If it had 12-24 hours in this environment this would be a much different story, since clearly all the ingredients are for rapid tropical cyclogenesis. I think it's probably a tropical depression now, but won't be sure until we get pressure/wind data from the keys. Also convection needs to persist for 6-12 hours to truly get classified. If it does persist I am near certain this will be a tropical cyclone in the best track. Key Largo and Marathon are getting the brunt of it, nice spiral bands in succession. Miami-dade and broward also getting in on some of the real bands. Also compact TCs can strengthen quickly. It's only got a few hours before real landfall though, it's chances of survival strongly depend on if it makes it out into the open gulf, I think it might just turn north and stay over Florida though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Shear is too high right now for anything to regenerate. 40kt shear awaits it in the gulf. Final Nino punch to Erika. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Shear is too high right now for anything to regenerate. 40kt shear awaits it in the gulf. Final Nino punch to Erika. Looks like shear is low for the moment though. We got west wind in Marathon and Long Key. Considering there's deep easterlies everywhere else that's actually a good indication of a closed circulation at the surface. Gusts of 30-40 mph on Long Key. Not trying to hype this up, it's not like a dangerous cyclone is developing. Just cool to watch tropical cyclogenesis occur so quickly and in radar range. Still looking for a pressure drop but nothing yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 There is broad rotation of thunderstorms coming into the southern portion of the the Florida Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I'll be staying below deck until Rick Scott gives the all clear. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SPECIAL MARINE WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... BISCAYNE BAY... COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS... * UNTIL 145 AM EDT * AT 117 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER... LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CARYSFORT REEF LIGHT TO 21 NM EAST OF THE ELBOW LIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CARD SOUND...PACIFIC REEF...TURKEY POINT AND CONVOY POINT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Gotta watch for waterspouts rolling onshore in these "bands". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Relatively sharp pressure drop at Islamorada. 1.3 mb drop in half an hour, 1010 mb versus 1014 mb in Homestead and Marathon. That's enough of a pressure gradient to consider this a warm core vortex, whether it's a tropical cyclone is kind've subjective at this point, I guess it depends on convective persistence near the center. Convection just keeps getting deeper for now, too bad this doesn't have another 24 hours over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Radar picking up 30-40 kt winds in the lowest 1000 feet across a wide swath of Biscayne National Park. Based on wind obs it looks like the deepest convection centered over Biscayne Bay 'sucked in' the center of circulation, or elongated it so the center stretches from the upper keys to southern Miami-Dade. Basically a center re-location in progress. Still got westerly winds in Islamorada so it's definitely closed. Lots of lightning and thunder here as another band rolls into Broward. I'm jealous of southern Miami Dade though, they got some legit storm conditions out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I mean look at this comparison. Does this look anything close to a tropical cyclone? If the GFS totally can't resolve a tropical cyclone, can it resolve other features approximately 1000 km in diameter with grid points every 12-13 km? That allows > 500 grid points for such a feature on a 2 dimensional plane... which I'd say is more than enough to "resolve" a feature. The actual deep convection in a hurricane simply cannot be realistically resolved, nor barotropic instabilities in the eyewall, or proper spiral rain bands. Convective processes are parameterized, and subject to huge errors. No realistic microphysics is produced either. All of these things have crucial impacts on intensity. And since they can't resolve convection they don't properly calculate vorticity generation, not even close. Parameterization simply doesn't create a realistic vorticity budget. This isn't a mid-latitude wave, 500 grid points are insufficient to resolve a hurricane. To truly resolve a hurricane you need like 100-500 meter resolution. The microscale features if not properly simulated cause a cascade of error all the way up to synoptic scale when dealing with tropical cyclones. This is why global models are garbage for intensity forecasting, they are decent for track though if you have a well-developed and sizable TC. You shouldn't be so aggressive if you don't know what you're talking about, telling me to take met ed courses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 But this is why you give the NWS a black eye.This is stupidity what the governor of Florida is doing.Not only is this giving false presentation to the public,what will happen when a real storm comes?The public will look the other way.I'm not directing my opinion towards you aso What? The actual deep convection in a hurricane simply cannot be realistically resolved, nor barotropic instabilities in the eyewall, or proper spiral rain bands. Convective processes are parameterized, and subject to huge errors. No realistic microphysics is produced either. All of these things have crucial impacts on intensity. And since they can't resolve convection they don't properly calculate vorticity generation, not even close. Parameterization simply doesn't create a realistic vorticity budget. This isn't a mid-latitude wave, 500 grid points are insufficient to resolve a hurricane. To truly resolve a hurricane you need like 100-500 meter resolution. The microscale features if not properly simulated cause a cascade of error all the way up to synoptic scale when dealing with tropical cyclones. This is why global models are garbage for intensity forecasting, they are decent for track though if you have a well-developed and sizable TC. You shouldn't be so aggressive if you don't know what you're talking about, telling me to take met ed courses To be fair, you never specified with any of this in your early posts in this thread. You just straight up said the globals were trash at TC forecasting without any breakdown of what they were good at and what problems they had. Yes, I do understand that issues with intensity forecasting can lead to track errors particularly where there is recurve potential, but getting a track anywhere close to right is pretty darn crucial as well especially when mid-latitude features are such an important aspect of the whole picture. It seems kind of unnecessary to push the globals into a corner when it comes to intensity forecasting and claim they are useless because all of the models have their problems with this (looking at you HWRF and GFDL), and in many cases it is track errors that are at least partly causing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 We are having the most insane lightning storm I've seen in years, at least 1 flash per second, lots of cloud to ground within a mile of me. Car alarms going off and it sounds like shells going off. This has been going on quite awhile too Will upload soon. Looks like the strongest storms have drifted up towards Broward. Being under a vigorous tropical deep convection tower is awesome, quite different than deep convection in the midwest. Racing low clouds and the atmosphere has that deep tropical feel, just about 100% humidity. Only gusts 10-20 mph maybe.... there's gotta be strong gusts in here somewhere. Yup, radar indicates a surge of 40+ knot winds heading north through Broward. I hope it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 FLZ067-071>074-172-173-300715- COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI- DADE COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL- COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL- 230 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FOR CENTRAL BROWARD...SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EDT... * AT 230 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHAMBERS ESTATES...OR NEAR DAVIE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. * THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORT LAUDERDALE...PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...MIRAMAR...DAVIE... PLANTATION...SUNRISE...TAMARAC...MIAMI GARDENS...HALLANDALE... LAUDERHILL...WESTON...NORTH MIAMI...NORTH MIAMI BEACH...AVENTURA... LAUDERDALE LAKES...DANIA BEACH...COOPER CITY...SUNNY ISLES BEACH AND OPA-LOCKA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Well-defined surface circulation, minimum pressure 1009 mb. That band moved in and it suddenly got very windy, gusts over 30 mph. Feels like typical tropical storm weather. Torrential downpours. This band is probably the convergence zone between Erika's surface circulation and the environment. Heavy rain training over me, yet another band about to come in, we're in a rain shield at this point under the deepest convection. Starting to realize this isn't going anywhere, zone of max precip has setup in southeast florida. Deep convection isn't losing any of its punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Two blow ups, one from the north of Cuba and one to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 This is why you shouldnt say a storm is completely dead while it is still near warm waters and near the gulf.. Not saying it will blow up into a major storm but there is still a potential that it could jump a few categorys again even if it's just for a brief timeframe because where it still is.. Its defiantly not dead yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Well-defined mid-level vortice over the Everglades, it is headed due north with the steering currents at that level. It's the result of the extremely deep convection over night. Strong inflow and convergence into this vortice even though it is definitely not at the surface. We are having yet another intense band of rain and lightning. Wettest weather we've gotten all summer so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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