AvantHiatus Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 They discontinue and it starts behaving as a TC. GFDL brings it into the Big Bend 979mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Looks like convection is now firing over what is left of the LLC. This may not be over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 A state of emergency only means the state can put a framework in place to respond more quickly and efficiently to storm-related issues. I don't see the big deal in Florida declaring for it when at the time forecasts shows Florida a direct hit. Especially when the main reason the declaration was made was for flooding, which has obviously been a significant problem with this system, and will continue to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Erika is likely making a little comeback off the north coast of Cuba. Convection is increasing over the remnant low-level vortex and the system is quickly moving into an area of somewhat lighter vertical shear, near the axis of the developing anticyclone over the Straits of Florida. I think that we'll likely see Erika regenerate into a weak TS (35-40 kt) sometime overnight or early tomorrow, necessitating TS Warnings for the lower Keys and the west coast of Florida. A regenerating Erika would likely track a bit closer to the Tampa Bay area once it makes its turn more to the northwest after passing near the lower Keys. A stronger-than-expected Erika slowing down or stalling near the Big Bend would likely result in greater QPF output than either the GFS or the ECMWF indicates, thanks to training bands. The potential for significant flooding over parts of the western and northern FL peninsula would exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Erika is moving in, heavy tropical downpours and decent wind gusts. Looked like a tropical storm for 10 minutes. On and off showers all day. Interesting structure, kind've like bands. I think when the remnant circulation comes through it might be interesting. It did hold, which is why FL issued a state of emergency to allow for the flow of supplies and manpower in the event of a substantial storm. A decision that you are now bashing unnecessarily. At the time I posted that the track was well north of Hispaniola, the opposite occurred in reality. It went south of and into Hispaniola. Which is why I didn't stock up on supplies. When the state of emergency was declared the storm was extremely disorganized, we were already at the point where a well defined center wasn't apparent. I wasn't really bashing that decision, it's not the NHC's decision. I was bashing the NHC forecast, which ignored observations in favor of model runs and forecast continuity. Whichever way you cut it this is abysmal, and this scenario isnt exactly unprecedented since it is common for tropical cyclones which hit Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This is starting to look like a possible extreme rain event. There's a frontal system just off the west coast of Florida, and there's actually fairly vigorous frontogenesis along it producing lots of rain/thunderstorm. The remnants of Erika are heading directly towards South Florida, they are embedded in a deep easterly flow. This easterly flow has rich tropical moisture, precipitable water in excess of 50 mm already encompasses South Florida. The remnants of Erika still have decent thunderstorm activity and banded structures, and the entire system will be forced up and over the denser, drier air behind the front. All that water will be squeezed out, and rich moisture will continue to flow in replenishing thunderstorms. The pre-existing remnant circulation and convergence bands will provide focus points for the most intense thunderstorm activity, in addition to sea breeze fronts. Florida is already getting drenched and it's only just begun. Some thunderstorms will become powerful and have strong wind gusts, there's plenty of dry air to work with for downdrafts centered at 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This was issued when I was typing that analysis, I swear I didn't see it first. 448 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAYNIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL ...COLLIER...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...GLADES... HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND MIAMI DADE... INLAND PALM BEACH...MAINLAND MONROE...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI DADE AND METRO PALM BEACH.* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.* HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS...URBAN AREAS...AND LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Turtle, looking at your vis loop it looks like something in the mid levels is twisting well to the ESE of where the old LLC was. Watch along the eastern tip of Cuba. Seems like the whole system is rotating around that point but no deep convection. Either way Florida gets tons of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Turtle, looking at your vis loop it looks like something in the mid levels is twisting well to the ESE of where the old LLC was. Watch along the eastern tip of Cuba. Seems like the whole system is rotating around that point but no deep convection. Either way Florida gets tons of rain. There's a remnant circulation just north of Cuba, you can see it pretty easy on vis if you look closely. If it moves over land it might feel like a mini tropical cyclone for those under it, racing clouds, bands of rain, gusty wind. Right now it's due south of Abacos Island and heading towards southernmost Florida, maybe the Keys. Same feature that was marked as the center before advisories were discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I see another rotation in SE Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I see another rotation in SE Cuba. new thunderstorm going up over that SE Cuba rotation. That seems to me to be the new rotation area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 We just had a power outage, which is unusual even in big thunderstorms. Winds are gusting 20-40 mph across parts of Southeast Florida. The circulation is closing in, and there's definitely some decent low-level winds racing around it. Easy to see the center southeast of Abacos. Should be fun night, I bet the center will be a focal point for nocturnal convection, especially if it hits Florida. Land friction and associated convergence enhancement will probably make this little circulation look impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 You can really see it on the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Mayhem from a TW ...nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Mayhem from a TW ...nice! It's a disaster area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 It's a disaster area!State of emergency..#neverforget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 State of emergency..#neverforget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 State of emergency..#neverforget He should issue Marshall law to keep things under control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 To be honest, I don't see how this will be a significant precipitation event for the FL peninsula. The vorticity will likely fall apart as it moves west-northwest over Cuba and into the southern Gulf before being sheared by the mid-trough. Without a well-defined system, however weak, in the area, the threat for widespread heavy rains drops considerably. HPC's three-day QPF outputs have gone down from 5-8"+ yesterday to 3-5" today, with most of the heaviest totals affecting the southern and western coasts of the peninsula, with a sharp gradient heading inland. If you live in an area that isn't already saturated, such modest three-day totals won't produce anything more than some minor, localized flooding. I feel that the threat has been broad-brushed, giving most residents outside flood zones a false sense of severity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 To be honest, I don't see how this will be a significant precipitation event for the FL peninsula. The vorticity will likely fall apart as it moves west-northwest over Cuba and into the southern Gulf before being sheared by the mid-trough. Without a well-defined system, however weak, in the area, the threat for widespread heavy rains drops considerably. HPC's three-day QPF outputs have gone down from 5-8"+ yesterday to 3-5" today, with most of the heaviest totals affecting the southern and western coasts of the peninsula, with a sharp gradient heading inland. If you live in an area that isn't already saturated, such modest three-day totals won't produce anything more than some minor, localized flooding. I feel that the threat has been broad-brushed, giving most residents outside flood zones a false sense of severity. But this is why you give the NWS a black eye.This is stupidity what the governor of Florida is doing.Not only is this giving false presentation to the public,what will happen when a real storm comes?The public will look the other way.I'm not directing my opinion towards you aso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 The remnant circulation is about to start overspreading South Florida now. Cells in the rainbands look tornadicish, makes sense given the vertical shear profile in the right front quadrant. Would not be surprising to see an EF0 or EF1 in South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 The remnant circulation is about to start overspreading South Florida now. Cells in the rainbands look tornadicish, makes sense given the vertical shear profile in the right front quadrant. Would not be surprising to see an EF0 or EF1 in South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Here she comes Stay safe. I put up aluminum storm shutters and duct taped the windows just in case. Unfortunately I won't be able to give anymore visual reports until the storm passes and all clear is declared by Rick Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 Strongy disagree, even if that rain forecast verified it would be nothing out of the usual. State of emergency was declared for possible tropical storm conditions. Lol... Clearly you have no idea what has been going on in the Tampa area lately. Roads flooding out and bridges becoming inaccessible due to the large amount of rainfall is not "normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Finally installed GRlevel2 on my new computer. Remnant swirl coming into view, I think it'll look interesting when it's closest to the radar, still scanning at ~20,000 feet over the center. So what we're seeing now is only the deep convective showers. Clearly maximum precip is setting up along the west coast, non-stop rain over there. They are going to have serious flooding. It's gonna hit the keys dead on based on satellite, but will bring the 'inner bands' over South Florida too. Anyone in that swirl thing you can see on shortwave IR will get a tropical cyclone-esque experience. Pretty much the same as a tropical depression. I wonder what will happen when the circulation enters the region of maximum frontal forcing. Will it be ripped apart or intensify? Depends on where exactly it tracks. In any case convection/showers should be intensifying near the swirl all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Pretty impressive rains inland up in the Orlando Metro area this evening. Inland seems to be the focus for the heavy rain so far especially Sanford to Lakeland Quiet outside of just some passing squalls here on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Tropical storm force wind gusts in Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe someone will get lucky and get a 50-60 mph gust as the center moves across Florida. Even though it is a remnant swirl, it still has momentum from when Erika was a real tropical storm. Takes time to spin that down. Naked swirls can be pretty damn windy. This same exact circulation was a tropical storm earlier today afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Tropical storm force wind gusts in Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe someone will get lucky and get a 50-60 mph gust as the center moves across Florida. Even though it is a remnant swirl, it still has momentum from when Erika was a real tropical storm. Takes time to spin that down. Naked swirls can be pretty damn windy. This same exact circulation was a tropical storm earlier today afterall. Elevation: 394 ft. Is this on top of a skyscraper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Some urban flooding occurring in the Orlando metro area. These photos are from just outside of downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Elevation: 394 ft. Is this on top of a skyscraper? Good catch, its prob on the tallest building in ft. lauderdale TS cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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