Jackstraw Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Just looking at the IR loop and the coldest clouds are developing just south of the island. If it can keep a west track it will be west of Haiti pretty soon. Still have to deal with shear but nice to see convection over the water. Maybe she will have a second life. Gustav was a good study on interaction with Hispaniola, albeit it was a mimimal hurricane when it hit there. It's not out of the question by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This thing could be nothing before it even reaches Florida. Good, we've had almost 4-6" of rain in the last 4 days, I don't think we need more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Gustav was a good study on interaction with Hispaniola, albeit it was a mimimal hurricane when it hit there. It's not out of the question by any means. Safe to say the dynamics involved in the southward movement started way before Hispaniola interaction. Could just be a bizarre case of competing centers or a uncoupled MLC. There is more than meets the eye for sure. Either way, I think Erika falls into that rare class of TCs that never develop as originally expected because of internal dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This might be the best Erica has looked its entire life. The land interaction may have actually helped to tighten the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This might be the best Erica has looked its entire life. The land interaction may have actually helped to tighten the circulation. Tomorrow will be interesting as she clears land. Lots of convection tonight, I like the stuff just south of the island. Still seems to be moving west and not wnw or nw. Can't write this off yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 It cannot survive if it continues west, too much shear in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This is not a closed circulation anymore. Also, I'm not sure it's going to reform farther north, it appears to have crossed the most rugged terrain in Hispaniola already. I expect a continued WNW motion of what's left of Erika into eastern Cuba in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This might be the best Erica has looked its entire life. The land interaction may have actually helped to tighten the circulation. The convection is deep, but there is zero evidence of a circulation. Winds are from the east across all of Hispaniola, northerly winds in Guantanamo Bay ahead of the wave axis. NHC is leaning towards a dead ringer... Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropicalstorm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typicaltimelines, we have elected to wait until we see what's left ofErika after it passes Hispaniola. There is a significant chancethat no watches or warnings for Florida will be required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The convection is deep, but there is zero evidence of a circulation. Winds are from the east across all of Hispaniola, northerly winds in Guantanamo Bay ahead of the wave axis. NHC is leaning towards a dead ringer... Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropicalstorm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typicaltimelines, we have elected to wait until we see what's left ofErika after it passes Hispaniola. There is a significant chancethat no watches or warnings for Florida will be required. That's pretty obvious right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The convective maxima is located where the wave axis crosses the mountains, flow from the south is generating vigorous orographic convection. Tons of vorticity is being generated, so the center may reform along the southern coast of Hispaniola. If a circulation formed it would head into the Windward Strait. If deep convection persists Erika will gain a significant northerly component, since the weakness in the ridge is centered along the Windward Passage. An upper-level low exists where the weakness is (they are 1 in the same), and upper-level diffluence north of the windward passage would enhance convection to the north of Erika, and perhaps pull Erika north. If Erika's center reforms and then pushes northwest at a steep enough angle, then Florida may stll get a tropical cyclone impact. It's a low probability though. If a circulaton with deep convection made it north of eastern Cuba all bets would be off, the game would totally change. 80% chance this doesn't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 CIMSS analysis indicates that the mid-level circulation is heading fairly close to 305° over a valley northeast of Port-au-Prince. That is pretty close to, or even just north of, the NHC track. On its current heading it may reach the Windward Passage and, once over water, could put down a low-level center near the easternmost tip of Cuba. Observations from Port-au-Prince indicate that some low-level feature could already be attempting to form closer to the mid-level vortex. Vertical shear will be reduced and is already likely decreasing thanks to the strong convection inducing warming of the atmosphere, thereby weakening the upper low to the northwest of Erika. All these trends, if sustained, could suggest a stronger system (45-50 kt perhaps) nearing FL a bit farther east, close to the upper Keys and the westernmost Everglades. I'm not sure, so I think we need to wait and observe trends. Personally, I would give turtlehurricane's scenario at least a bit more likelihood, maybe 30-35% of occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wflamholtz1 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 NHC decided to keep Erika a tropical storm at 11PM http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The 00z NAM takes what's left up the FL East coast to near GA in four days. Buckets and buckets of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The convective maxima is located where the wave axis crosses the mountains, flow from the south is generating vigorous orographic convection. Tons of vorticity is being generated, so the center may reform along the southern coast of Hispaniola. If a circulation formed it would head into the Windward Strait. If deep convection persists Erika will gain a significant northerly component, since the weakness in the ridge is centered along the Windward Passage. An upper-level low exists where the weakness is (they are 1 in the same), and upper-level diffluence north of the windward passage would enhance convection to the north of Erika, and perhaps pull Erika north. If Erika's center reforms and then pushes northwest at a steep enough angle, then Florida may stll get a tropical cyclone impact. It's a low probability though. If a circulaton with deep convection made it north of eastern Cuba all bets would be off, the game would totally change. 80% chance this doesn't happen... Yeah I did notice that orographic affect as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Wow at the new track. Into the FL panhandle on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Wow at the new track. Into the FL panhandle on Wednesday. "State of Emergency" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Somehow still a TS. 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 Location: 18.5°N 72.9°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Somehow still a TS. 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 Location: 18.5°N 72.9°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Likely for continuity purposes and wanting to ensure that the LLCOC has definitively desolved (which isn't assured) and a more defined one isn't reformed-neccesating a downgrade immediately followed by an upgrade between advisories. This was standard practice back in my day (early 90's with a student internship at the NHC). The fact it's overland combined with surface obs supporting TS intensity is the primary reason for the aforementioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Watch it just fizzle out when the wave axis clears the mountains of Hispaniola... then we'll probably get another blowup south of Cuba. That'd be our sign this isn't a cyclone at all. There's been convection just as strong and widespread as this anytime a tropical wave crosses Hispaniola, or in the southerly flow from a hurricane hundreds of miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Guantanamo Bay radar suggests the deep convective cells are locked to the southern side of the mountain ranges, they are not moving. No sign of any banding Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Watch it just fizzle out when the wave axis clears the mountains of Hispaniola... then we'll probably get another blowup south of Cuba. That'd be our sign this isn't a cyclone at all. There's been convection just as strong and widespread as this anytime a tropical wave crosses Hispaniola, or in the southerly flow from a hurricane hundreds of miles away. At the current time, I'd lean toward the probability that the former (current?) LLCOC will not recover and Erika's future survival is likely dependant on a new formation of a LLCOC. In short, I'm in agreement with you on Erika's current organization or lack thereof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 "State of Emergency"Mainstream media is terrible, this is the definition of crying wolf Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Watch it just fizzle out when the wave axis clears the mountains of Hispaniola... then we'll probably get another blowup south of Cuba. That'd be our sign this isn't a cyclone at all. There's been convection just as strong and widespread as this anytime a tropical wave crosses Hispaniola, or in the southerly flow from a hurricane hundreds of miles away. I don't disagree with you, but the scenario you outlined (fizzling convection as it moves west, blowing up again as it nears Cuba) may not necessarily imply that "this isn't a cyclone at all". Another explanation in such a scenario could be that it's a weak TS heavily influenced by the diurnal convective cycle. This blowup would then be seen as the result of the nocturnal convective max, and a fizzling would be the result of the diurnal convective minimum. In other words, the timing fuzzies the picture somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Mainstream media is terrible, this is the definition of crying wolf Sent from my iPhone Yep...it's all about ratings moreso than factual reporting, nowadays, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Mainstream media is terrible, this is the definition of crying wolf Sent from my iPhone How is saying "staggers" hyperbolic though right now? Since that more or less means that it is struggling. Also, if you read the article it states that the main concern is flooding, not winds, which is obviously not a misnomer with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 How is saying "staggers" hyperbolic though right now? Agreed. Seems like a pretty reasonable description to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 How is saying "staggers" hyperbolic though right now? Since that more or less means that it is struggling. Also, if you read the article it states that the main concern is flooding, not winds, which is obviously not a misnomer with this system. I personally have to admit that I was referring to the typical tendency for the media to over-hype such relative TC events to drive ratings with far less regard for factual reporting-and should've clarified that my comments weren't predicated on that specific example. In short, as you pointed out, I too must concur that that particular headline wasn't hyperbolic. Edit: To me, TWC is one of the worst offenders in pushing the hyperbolic envelope, unnecessarily, in far too many instances in order to drive ratings. As Turtle implied, unnecessary hyperbole of more modest events can lead to future complacency and a lack of adequate preparation for the big TC event one may face in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Also, for everyone trashing Florida for declaring a state of emergency, it was due to the expected threat of new and continued flooding, because in case you've been too fixated on Erika, Florida has been pretty wet the past few days... And more rain from a tropical system would definitely cause significant problems, especially if the NAM were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I personally have to admit that I was referring to the typical tendency for the media to over-hype such relative TC events to drive ratings with far less regard for factual reporting-and should've clarified that my comments weren't predicated on that specific example. In short, as you pointed out, I too must concur that that particular headline wasn't hyperbolic. Yeah, national media is typically terrible with weather-related headlines, especially when it comes to something that has yet to happen. It reflects more poorly from the public's POV on meteorologists than it does on the news company as well, which just leads even more to "the weatherman is always wrong" or "I'll believe it when I see it" type attitudes, which obviously costs lives. Not that the NHC has done very good with this system at all. In fact EVERYONE did a bad job with this system, but that wasn't just because of bad forecasting by mets by any means, more so had to deal with models making bad forecasts. All of them seemed to struggle with Erika's vertical structure, or lack thereof, as well as the convective systems on the south side that persistently redeveloped/ reoriented the LLcoc which also impacted the direction and speed of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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