Joe4alb Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 no dice... still a TS 000WTNT35 KNHC 282054TCPAT5BULLETINTROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015...ERIKA MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH HEAVY RAINS ANDGUSTY WINDS...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...17.9N 71.2WABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLICABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Dominican Republic* Haiti* Southeastern Bahamas* Turks and Caicos Islands* Central BahamasA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* Northwestern Bahamas* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,Holguin, and GuantanamoA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as thesouthern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor theprogress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could beneeded for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off ofHispaniola.For storm information specific to your area, please monitor productsissued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika wasestimated near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Erika ismoving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward thewest-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motioncontinuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On theforecast track, the center of Erika will move over the DominicanRepublic and Haiti during the next several hours, and be near thesoutheastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday.Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erika isforecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. There isa possibility that Erika could dissipate to a trough of lowpressure during or after its passage over Hispaniola.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)to the east of the center. Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republicrecently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations fromthe Dominican Republic, is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well, at least we had a few tropical systems to track. I didn't think we see much of anything, so this was a bonus to this much action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not sure why they have it going due NW on their forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Still a storm. Even though they say in the discussion that it barely has a center. A pure face-saving move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Forecasted to become a depression soon then redevelop into a tropical storm again off the coast of Florida near Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Should go into the Gulf, and turn in to a major hurricane then hit New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The motion continues to be west and by the time it starts turning it will be past Haiti probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It could still effect Florida and just arrive a different way than originally thought. So we cant really criticize the Florida state of emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 BULLETIN TROPICAL WAVE ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Wave Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Wave Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Wave Warning means that tropical wave conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Wave Watch means that tropical wave conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not sure why they have it going due NW on their forecast track. They have been doing this for over a day now. They want to maintain continuity but eventually when you see a forecast isn't going to pan out you have to throw it away and start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 There is the center of the storm according to the NHC. Anyone have any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not sure why they have it going due NW on their forecast track. "Erika has been moving more westward for the past several hours and the initial motion is 280/17. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory." Except for the fact that they have it moving NW now, when it's clearly not. Kind of head scratching if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looking at the vis loop I am taking a guess and putting the center at the "E". I could be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 #Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Haven't read back through the thread but this storm bugs me as much as Fay did a few years ago. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Haven't read back through the thread but this storm bugs me as much as Fay did a few years ago. Anyone else? The first three storms this year, and although it has been less directly visible, Erika as well, have developed on the west end of a TUTT. These do seem to develop circulations the size of tropical cyclones, that undoubtedly do develop tropical characteristics, but as we have noticed, all of them except Danny, which did appear to develop independent of a TUTT, exhibit less severe dynamics such as strengthening, which is as good natural hurricane mediation as one could hope, though discouraging to storm watchers. (I am still just learning three years after joining this board, so some of the above may be a bit off base.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Convention is pretty strong across the DR right now, Haiti might have some serious issues soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 "Erika has been moving more westward for the past several hours and the initial motion is 280/17. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory." Except for the fact that they have it moving NW now, when it's clearly not. Kind of head scratching if you ask me. This is purely my own speculation ... but I have noticed over the past two to three seasons they have been increasingly reliant upon modeling. They seem to even assign their invest more often based upon reputable model depicting, ...before there is even much evidence that the entity is showing any signs. They've actually done well that way, because the kind of debacles like what's gone on over the past two days with Erika have been happening with increasingly less frequency. But this thing really has been a debacle in tooling. Wow. There's been a constant angle between the mean track and the actual observed course for... days it seems now. Edit: Oops is right! haha. I didn't realize you posted that graphic, but YES exactly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 WOW. Watching the begining of NBC Nightly News. "State of Emergency declared in Florida as killer storm Erika bears down". You would think a Cat 5 is about to strike Miami head on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 WOW. Watching the begining of NBC Nightly News. "State of Emergency declared in Florida as killer storm Erika bears down". You would think a Cat 5 is about to strike Miami head on! CNN is running with the same message on the web site. Mother texted me as she is in Miami asking what is going on with the storm. I told her not much, maybe some rain. Media just going nutz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This is purely my own speculation ... but I have noticed over the past two to three seasons they have been increasingly reliant upon modeling. They seem to even assign their invest more often based upon reputable model depicting, ...before there is even much evidence that the entity is showing any signs. They've actually done well that way, because the kind of debacles like what's gone on over the past two days with Erika have been happening with increasingly less frequency. But this thing really has been a debacle in tooling. Wow. There's been a constant angle between the mean track and the actual observed course for... days it seems now. Edit: Oops is right! haha. I didn't realize you posted that graphic, but YES exactly - 2-3 years?! More like 10+ years. Convection was south of the center for the past few days due to shear, which causes the center to go more south than otherwise since vorticity generation was occurring almost entirely south of the center. From observations this was a very obvious thing, but models couldn't properly resolve it. And I guess the nhc assumed the models were resolving this properly? Someone could write a script to average the models based on their skill and it would be pretty much the same as the nhc forecast, especially if you added arbitrary 'forecast continuity' to the algorithm. I would like to see some stats on if there's any significant difference between nhc forecasts and models, and whether the nhc has less skill or more skill. I'll go check their verification reports... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That southern convection which has held this storm hostage is finally dying off and the northern convection is finally taking over JUST IN TIME TO RUN INTO A ISLAND. Think im taking a break for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That southern convection which has held this storm hostage is finally dying off and the northern convection is finally taking over JUST IN TIME TO RUN INTO A ISLAND. Think im taking a break for the night. The terrain on the island itself maybe causing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Not to derail the conversation too much, but Danny had almost the same thing happen. Near the end of its life, it kept trending on the south side of NHC predictions and it literally fell out of the forecast cone as it dissipated near the Leeward Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 In 2014 the TVCA, an average of the best models, beat the nhc at every forecast hour. FSU super ensemble also beat nhc for most of the forecast. Of course more years would have to be analyzed, but as of 2014 they made the forecast worse on average. It's a narrow view though, has to be evaluated on a case by case basis, averaging might lead to the wrong conclusions. Maybe it was 1 storm like Erika which did it. So I won't go as far as saying the nhc is detrimental to forecasts yet Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This thing could be nothing before it even reaches Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Still moving west at 8 p.m. Guess it's already left the 5 p.m. forecast cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Someone could write a script to average the models based on their skill and it would be pretty much the same as the nhc forecast, especially if you added arbitrary 'forecast continuity' to the algorithm.I would like to see some stats on if there's any significant difference between nhc forecasts and models, and whether the nhc has less skill or more skill. I'll go check their verification reports...Sent from my iPhone 1) umm, they've been using weighted consensus averages for years. 2) they have generally been more accurate than NHC forecasts for quite a while, something openly acknowledged by NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Just looking at the IR loop and the coldest clouds are developing just south of the island. If it can keep a west track it will be west of Haiti pretty soon. Still have to deal with shear but nice to see convection over the water. Maybe she will have a second life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Still moving west at 8 p.m. Guess it's already left the 5 p.m. forecast cone. #oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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