goldman75 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Watch this hit the gulf and go to Texas when it's all said and done. It's only fitting for a storm as ridiculous to track as this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Watch this hit the gulf and go to Texas when it's all said and done. It's only fitting for a storm as ridiculous to track as this one Yeah this thing is heading due west and looks to be getting shredded apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Just got a call from my manager asking my to go down to Florida to help. LOL This is what happens when the governor declares a state of emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 HAHA at the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like some convection developed closer to the center. But it still looks pretty fugly. I'm just grasping at straws at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Just got a call from my manager asking my to go down to Florida to help. LOL This is what happens when the governor declares a state of emergency. We may get some T showers next week, can you head up here when you're done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Euro has it re-forming off Tampa and 'threatening' Panama city as a 1011 closed low. ETA - Panama City, FL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 How about this scenario? It moves west till it hits Jamaica then gets picked up with the trough in the gulf. You can see the flow going towards Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The only reason NHC is holding on to this is because of political reasons- warnings already up etc. If this was never named and the recon was finding the exact same conditions they would probably not even call it a depression- 10111mb broad centered systems are not indicative of a TS at all despite a few 40-45kt winds under the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That really, really has the appearance of an open wave on that IR image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Lol @ florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Would not at all surprise me if the wave took this path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 There's no westerly winds evident on visible, it's degenerated. The entirety of the Bahamas were put under tropical storm watches/warnings for a storm that will never come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 There's no westerly winds evident on visible, it's degenerated. The entirety of the Bahamas were put under tropical storm watches/warnings for a storm that will never come. Yup, it's a wave now. I wounder what the 5pm advisory will say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's just as likely to regenerate as any open wave. Shear is so high that regeneration would be slow. Non-event is 90% likely Sent from my iPhone It doesn't have to be a category 5 to be an event. I'm much more concerned with flooding potential in Florida with now multiple model runs showing Erika stalling over the area for at least 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This is up there with the worst NHC forecasts, and therefore the worst model forecasts since that's most of the forecast input. Might ruin the NHC verification score for the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 On vis still see a bit of rotation in that bay on the southern part of the Hispaniola. Looks to move into S Haiti but she's cooked for now. Of course this will be the lead story on TV news tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 18z models shifting as well, if this thing is even a "tropical storm" anymore. Consistently on the extreme southern fringe of the cone, if not blatantly outside of it at times. Jamaica may end up getting more of a "direct hit" than any of the Bahamas and they never had any watches or warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 18z models shifting as well, if this thing is even a "tropical storm" anymore. Consistently on the extreme southern fringe of the cone, if not blatantly outside of it at times. Jamaica may end up getting more of a "direct hit" than any of the Bahamas and they never had any watches or warnings. The center hasn't even stayed in the 12 hour cone for the past 24-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Storm is moving southwest*. Let the fireworks begin at the 5pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Storm is moving southwest*. Let the fireworks begin at the 5pm advisory. "Storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Storm is moving southeast. Let the fireworks begin at the 5pm advisory. There might be some sort of big change at 5 p.m. Not sure if it will be movement, track, watches/warnings or even a status change, but I think we'll see something. On a side note, here's the latest analog data. Of 13 weak systems (TS or TD) within 50nm of Erika in Aug/Sep, five didn't even make it past eastern Cuba and only 2/8 tracked east of Florida. The rest went into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This is up there with the worst NHC forecasts, and therefore the worst model forecasts since that's most of the forecast input. Might ruin the NHC verification score for the entire season. Consistently too high with regards to intensity and this is the result....Open wave/TD as it was, and still is, and it's going west due to low level wind steering, which predominates. This is going to hit the south coast of Hisapaniola, and possibly graze northern Jamaica, before re-curving in the extreme Northwestern Caribbean. If you're off with the forecast intensity, you are incorrect with the forecast track. A persistence forecast takes it right between Jamaica and Cuba.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Storm is moving southwest*. Let the fireworks begin at the 5pm advisory. Where did you get that info from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelathos Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like last night's naked swirl has won the contest. What are the chances of it regenerating and entering the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 A state of emergency doesn't necessarily mean that a disaster is imminent or occurring, it activates the national guard and allows tolls to be waived in case evacuations are necessary. Just a wise precaution. To the general public a "State of Emergency" is just that. An emergency. My older parents in Florida are a bit panicked right now. It needs to be called something else less urgent. Way over the top IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like last night's naked swirl has won the contest. What are the chances of it regenerating and entering the Gulf? Shear levels will increase in the the Gulf. If Erika is not a robust system at that point, the odds are strongly against her developing into anything more than a very weak TS.. I think this will ONLY get interesting again if the COC manages to just scrape southern Hispaniola and avoid Cuba and most of Jamaica... I actually think that's more likely than not at this point, however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 There might be some sort of big change at 5 p.m. Not sure if it will be movement, track, watches/warnings or even a status change, but I think we'll see something. On a side note, here's the latest analog data. Of 13 weak systems (TS or TD) within 50nm of Erika in Aug/Sep, five didn't even make it past eastern Cuba and only 2/8 tracked east of Florida. The rest went into the Gulf. Screen Shot 2015-08-28 at 3.44.41 PM.png I think it will head into the gulf. However, the STJ is just too strong. Nino mounts 2 lines of defense against hurricanes, Erika is barely making it through the first line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I bet there is a lot of consternation on what to do at NHC right now. If they downgrade it to a wave, there will be a lot of egg on their faces- not that it was ever an easy forecast, but the public does not really know or care about that. All they see is meteorologists being "wrong again". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 To the general public a "State of Emergency" is just that. An emergency. My older parents in Florida are a bit panicked right now. It needs to be called something else less urgent. Way over the top IMO! Shouldn't have called it. Erika will likely be downgraded at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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