UNCCmetgrad Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The latest NHC discussion notes: Do you think that, if that were to occur thanks to the destruction of the remnant surface center, the NHC forecast for a strong TS in FL (the 72-hour position is 50 kt inland, indicating 55-60 kt at the coast) could verify? If the low-level center gets totally destroyed and quickly reforms on the other side then yes its possible. This would be given you have really good environmental conditions once back over water. I think they just mentioned this in their discussion as a possibility. Looking at their official track and intensity forecast they never mention dissipation so think the intensity at landfall over Florida assumes the low level center stays intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I have not looked at anything since last evening. Just catching up. On the vis loop is that the LLC clear of the convection moving WSW? Looks to be passing Hispaniola to the south if that is the LLC. Maybe if it can stay intact it would shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti or being so weak even go west of there??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Is there any chance because it is so weak that it moves just south of Hispaniola and south of Cuba? Looks like shear is worse further south so this may be a stupid question anyways.Yes, that's typically what happens when a TS degenerates over Hispaniola. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 One would think that Erika will begin to feel the weakness it is approaching in the sub-tropical ridge and begin moving further NW. If that doesn't happen, Erika could end up getting into the Western Caribbean where the shear is currently very low and the waters are quite warm. That chart suggests it will go due west from here on out. Only possibility it feels the weakness in the ridge is if that deeper convection east of center becomes the real center. I give it a 10-20% chance. In that case Florida would get a tropical stormSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Ive come to the conclusion that Erika is a massive troll. Looks like it moved southwest now. I don't think anyone knows the outcome of this and right on cue shear increases south of cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If that GFS run pans out, it doesn't even look like that much rain. Ive come to the conclusion that Erika is a massive troll. Looks like it moved southwest now. I don't think anyone knows the outcome of this and right on cue shear increases south of cuba. I don't see any hint of a S movement. Broad circulation looks to still be moving WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 My armchair met thoughts. I am no more a scientist than the girl that just made my Subway sandwich, educate me This storm has had a very well established upper anticyclone since it formed, and I believe that is key. As long as the mid level vorticity can stay stacked underneath it, move in tandem with it and maintain it's current strength the LLC/LLC's are going to wobble around below, like a spinning top with a high center of gravity. I think this is what is causing such difficulty in forecasting a track as movement of the storm is much more "storm" dominant than "low level vortex" dominant and is subject to varying degrees of amtospheric steering layers depending on which level of the storm is strongest at that moment, if that makes any sense. I may be and probably am wrong, but it just seems sensible to me with my limited scientific knowledge. With, at least IMHO, our sometimes over dependance on the technology in forecasting, ie. models, forecasters can lose sight of the forest for the trees. Don't get me wrong, the technology is great and 90% of the time it's very reliable, not bashing. If this thing survives, and I think it will, I think it would be a great study as to why in the future. I'll get back into my armchair now and watch sat. loops until I'm dizzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If that GFS run pans out, it doesn't even look like that much rain. I don't see any hint of a S movement. Broad circulation looks to still be moving WNW. Might just be one of the many circulations that the hurricane hunters found. but there was like 2 southwest of the previous one. This is one challenging system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Ive come to the conclusion that Erika is a massive troll. Looks like it moved southwest now. I don't think anyone knows the outcome of this and right on cue shear increases south of cuba. I think everyone does, but the uncertainty revolves around exactly around how we get there. Three or four different ways to achieve boring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think everyone does, but the uncertainty revolves around exactly around how we get there. Three or four different ways to achieve boring... Can't argue there. We got Nino'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 How well would the mid-level vorticity survive its passage over Hispaniola? The 12Z GFS kills the vorticity over land, resulting in an open trough moving into South FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Can't argue there. We got Nino'd Not sure why it happened, it's not like shear was off the charts. The general downstream convection in the pacific does have a negative influence on TC genesis tho. The main lesson is to not jump on-board for any scenario before a well-defined/stacked core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think everyone does, but the uncertainty revolves around exactly around how we get there. Three or four different ways to achieve boring... It's a combination of all of them, 1. it moved over land, 2.Shear never let up as foretasted 3. Erika died yesterday and is only being kept alive by nhc's imagination. 4. There's that one crappy model that still shows a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 For posterity. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082812&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=78.18181648727294 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's a combination of all of them, 1. it moved over land, 2.Shear never let up as foretasted 3. Erika died yesterday and is only being kept alive by nhc's imagination. 4. There's that one crappy model that still shows a storm. The shear was never supposed to let up until it got INVO the Bahamas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 For posterity. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082812&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=78.18181648727294 Best case.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The entire forecast from the beginning was a weak system that strengthens over the Bahamas. Some showed rapid intensification, some were modest. Let's wait and see if anything happens north of Hispaniola. Doubtful to be much, but the environment is ripe and stranger things have happened. Many of POS looking storms have become formidable there. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Governor just issued a State of Emergency for Florida, and headline from Fox News just said Erika gaining strength in the waters of the Atlantic. All I can say is just WOW! Facepalm-worthy, some rain for Florida during wet season doesn't need hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Facepalm-worthy, some rain for Florida during wet season doesn't need hype. Meh, It was a reasonable call to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 At this point I'd gladly take the 12Z HWRF. A lot of rain with some squally weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 States of Emergency and headlines like the current fox news "Erika bares down on Florida" kill lives and don't save them. Warning fatigue. I can see no reason under the current situation that Florida should be under a state of emergency. Totally the opposite conditions of Sandy when the NYC mayor said nothing to worrry about and the models said totally otherwise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Wow, I just checked back in to see the conclusion of that GEM run.....that is about the funnest solution I have ever laid eyes upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 States of Emergency and headlines like the current fox news "Erika bares down on Florida" kill lives and don't save them. Warning fatigue. I can see no reason under the current situation that Florida should be under a state of emergency. Totally the opposite conditions of Sandy when the NYC mayor said nothing to worrry about and the models said totally otherwise! Hyperbolic much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 A state of emergency doesn't necessarily mean that a disaster is imminent or occurring, it activates the national guard and allows tolls to be waived in case evacuations are necessary. Just a wise precaution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXPRONY Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Wow, I just checked back in to see the conclusion of that GEM run.....that is about the funnest solution I have ever laid eyes upon. The GGEM is one of the most unreliable, atrocious models for tracking tropical cyclones (even though if you really look into it by the end of the run, it probably isnt tropical anymore) The only thing it's good for is click bait. For those that keeping saying "It got Sandy right", that statement is getting as old and useless as "It's Bush's Fault". GFS, Euro and UK are the way to go in these situations in terms of the Globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 States of Emergency and headlines like the current fox news "Erika bares down on Florida" kill lives and don't save them. Warning fatigue. I can see no reason under the current situation that Florida should be under a state of emergency. Totally the opposite conditions of Sandy when the NYC mayor said nothing to worrry about and the models said totally otherwise! Im so so on issueing the state of emergency although this could be overkill for a system that is likely to be mid range tropical system if it even hits the state. But putting in a headline that reads 'Erika gaining strength over the waters of the Atlantic is totally irresponsible and untrue! It is doing anything but getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The GGEM is one of the most unreliable, atrocious models for tracking tropical cyclones (even though if you really look into it by the end of the run, it probably isnt tropical anymore) The only thing it's good for is click bait. For those that keeping saying "It got Sandy right", that statement is getting as old and useless as "It's Bush's Fault". GFS, Euro and UK are the way to go in these situations in terms of the Globals. I'm by no means endorsing the veracity of it....merely enjoying the run itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXPRONY Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I'm by no means endorsing the veracity of it....merely enjoying the run itself. Understandable. BTW the 12Z GFDL has finally surrendered to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXPRONY Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 ..and 2PM update has her going west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 ..and 2PM update has her going west again. and movement to W at 18 mph not west northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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