airmarci Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, but satellite imagery over the last few hours seems to suggest an almost due-west motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, but radar imagery over the last few hours seems to suggest an almost due-west motion. That is my last hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, but radar imagery over the last few hours seems to suggest an almost due-west motion. Would that not increase the chance that this ends up being a Gulf storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Should the system escape into the Gulf it would only be entering an even more hostile environment. At least the shear is weakening some over Haiti as this graphic yesterday was showing > 40kts of Southerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It might not survive at all, looks like a classic Hispaniola mortality. If it does survive we will get Ernesto 2.0 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It might not survive at all, looks like a classic Hispaniola mortality. If it does survive we will get Ernesto 2.0 Sent from my iPhone Erika needs to be taken out back and shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Should the system escape into the Gulf it would only be entering an even more hostile environment. At least the shear is weakening some over Haiti as this graphic yesterday was showing > 40kts of Southerly shear. Meh. Stinks. These seems destined to be a "pick your boring" system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It might not survive at all, looks like a classic Hispaniola mortality. If it does survive we will get Ernesto 2.0 Sent from my iPhone I'd rather it perish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Another scenario is that the center ends up passing South of Cuba and reforms in the Western Caribbean where the waters are warm and the shear is low. Although I haven't seen a model solution yet with that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 We all should have known better than to think an African storm could survive in this strong El Nino. We have to hope for a home grown system later in the season. This one has no shot to anything other than being toast or a weak POS. Next. Also, in general the Global models, especially the Euro, were a lot better than the GFDL and HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 We all should have known better than to think an African storm could survive in this strong El Nino. We have to hope for a home grown system later in the season. This one has no shot to anything other than being toast or a weak POS. Next. Also, in general the Global models, especially the Euro, were a lot better than the GFDL and HWRF. Thats it. let it all out. i hope this stays south tho. The waters south of Cuba are off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Another scenario is that the center ends up passing South of Cuba and reforms in the Western Caribbean where the waters are warm and the shear is low. Although I haven't seen a model solution yet with that scenario. I hadn't seen a solution taking it over a 12000' peak a couple of days ago, yet here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think most model have the mid-level circulation staying well intact over Hispaniola. So it would be a matter of reorganizing at the surface. However, I'm having a very hard time seeing this get north of Eastern Cuba which has its own high terrain so it would be awhile. The 00Z ECMWF solution is probably the most plausible right now with a weak system going through the Florida Straits then moving northwest and finally north through the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. We are lucky (or not depending on how you look at things) to have Hispaniola and Cuba located where they are as they have likely saved the Southeast US and Gulf several major hurricane strikes. They can make for one heck of a forecasting headache though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Unless I am missing something I do not see any Westerly winds South of the Dominican Republic. I also do not see any rotation on PR radar although Erika is starting to get pretty far away from that site so it's not the most useful. I think we could see an open wave declaration at 11AM. The pass is from 2:20z last night per the small time stamps on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think most model have the mid-level circulation staying well intact over Hispaniola. So it would be a matter of reorganizing at the surface. However, I'm having a very hard time seeing this get north of Eastern Cuba which has its own high terrain so it would be awhile. The 00Z ECMWF solution is probably the most plausible right now with a weak system going through the Florida Straits then moving northwest and finally north through the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. We are lucky (or not depending on how you look at things) to have Hispaniola and Cuba located where they are as they have likely saved the Southeast US and Gulf several major hurricane strikes. They can make for one heck of a forecasting headache though. The most threatening track for the Gulf, besides a home brew, seems to be through the Caribbean and then splitting the goal posts between Mexico and Cuba and entering the Gulf, obviously becoming essentially land locked at that point. The other track is North of the Islands and a huge majority of those harmlessly recurve out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The pass is from 2:20z last night per the small time stamps on the bottom. That is true, didn't see that, good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think most model have the mid-level circulation staying well intact over Hispaniola. So it would be a matter of reorganizing at the surface. However, I'm having a very hard time seeing this get north of Eastern Cuba which has its own high terrain so it would be awhile. The 00Z ECMWF solution is probably the most plausible right now with a weak system going through the Florida Straits then moving northwest and finally north through the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. We are lucky (or not depending on how you look at things) to have Hispaniola and Cuba located where they are as they have likely saved the Southeast US and Gulf several major hurricane strikes. They can make for one heck of a forecasting headache though. The NAM does keep the mid-level vorticy quite strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 I also find it interesting that people are ignoring the multiple runs from each of the GFS and Euro that have showed some sort of stalling solution over or near Florida with the ridge building back in. Just look at the newest GFS with a solution that shows Erika as a tropical storm and depression sitting over Florida for at least 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 We want a more west track now. but either way you look at it, shear is way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 They are still finding 50-60 mph flight level and surface winds. I've found this storm facinating so far. Really shows how much more work is to be done to understand these things. I've seen several of these mid level disorganized TC's wreak havok on forecasting over the years, especially with the models. John Hope would've loved this storm . Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:36ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 14A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:57:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°03'N 69°11'W (17.05N 69.1833W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,510m (4,954ft) at 850mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 53kts (From the SE at ~ 61.0mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 118 nautical miles (136 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureN. Fix Level: 850mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 40 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) which was observed 124 nautical miles (143 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) from the flight level center at 12:54:30ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 3kts (From the S at 3mph)Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the NNE (26°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The NAM does keep the mid-level vorticy quite strong Yep. It will be a wait and see as to how well that feature can stay together. At any rate this needs a total reorganization if it is to eventually intensify at all in the future. Maybe the total destruction by the of this disorganized mess at the surface by the islands is what it needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I loved John Hope..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The NHC is forecasting a strong tropical storm (55-60 kt) at landfall in FL, given that the 72-hour position is 50 kt well inland. This is a 100% bust on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 People need to remember that there is literally no core for Hispaniola to disrupt... Erika is much more likely to survive or regenerate just based on that alone. Plus, it very much depends on where exactly a TC crosses Hispaniola as well.It's just as likely to regenerate as any open wave. Shear is so high that regeneration would be slow. Non-event is 90% likelySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Governor just issued a State of Emergency for Florida, and headline from Fox News just said Erika gaining strength in the waters of the Atlantic. All I can say is just WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Yep. It will be a wait and see as to how well that feature can stay together. At any rate this needs a total reorganization if it is to eventually intensify at all in the future. Maybe the total destruction by the of this disorganized mess at the surface by the islands is what it needs. The latest NHC discussion notes: An extra complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform somewhere northwest or west of the island. Do you think that, if that were to occur thanks to the destruction of the remnant surface center, the NHC forecast for a strong TS in FL (the 72-hour position is 50 kt inland, indicating 55-60 kt at the coast) could verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The NHC is forecasting a strong tropical storm (55-60 kt) at landfall in FL, given that the 72-hour position is 50 kt well inland. This is a 100% bust on the high side. At least SW Florida is all swamp and obviously there aren't any elevation issues to deal with. An organized storm could survive the trip. I know I am grasping for straws, but the NAM does keep the system offshore or right over the FL beaches. Very close to the track from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Is there any chance because it is so weak that it moves just south of Hispaniola and south of Cuba? Looks like shear is worse further south so this may be a stupid question anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 One would think that Erika will begin to feel the weakness it is approaching in the sub-tropical ridge and begin moving further NW. If that doesn't happen, Erika could end up getting into the Western Caribbean where the shear is currently very low and the waters are quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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