Superstorm93 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Maybe I am missing something but I don't see a ton of dry air around. The SAL out ahead of it continues to slide West in tandem with Erika. Also, I think a majority of the models are indicating interaction with the islands more than anything else. Shear doesn't appear to be a problem moving forward unless again I am missing something. Shear was analyzed at 6.9m/s or 13 knots as of 18z...the ULAC is displaced to the SW and producing moderate shear which is why we have the presentation that we have now. Also, "dry air" isn't just what you see on a WV loop. It can be stability, which can clearly be seen on the OLR anomaly maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I guess nobody sees this as a red flag? GFS OP is a major outlier to the ensembles. What really had my attention earlier was the euro and the blocking high. That seems to have been a fleeting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Erika's dead or close to death. Convection over the past day or so has not succeeded in covering the dominant low-level center, and Erika is entering a more stable and sheared environment nearby. Pulsating convection can only get a weak system so far, and I've already outlined the obstacles to regeneration after day three. I'd say Danny 2.0 or maybe the ghost of Debby 2000--another system forecast to pose a possible hurricane threat to South FL that encountered shear and struck Hispaniola instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 000WTNT45 KNHC 252045TCDAT5TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convectionnear and to the south of the center. Data from the Air ForceHurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt andthis is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircleof the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone hasbeen ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previousforecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the futureintensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicatesincreasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and theGFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during theforecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from theprevious one and is close to the model consensus.A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continuesto be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north ofErika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for thenext several days. Late in the forecast period, there issignificant spread in the models, with those models that depict aweaker system being farther south and west and those having astronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official trackforecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous oneand is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of thenortheastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on thenext advisory package.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Erika's dead or close to death. Convection over the past day or so has not succeeded in covering the dominant low-level center, and Erika is entering a more stable and sheared environment nearby. Pulsating convection can only get a weak system so far, and I've already outlined the obstacles to regeneration after day three. I'd say Danny 2.0 or maybe the ghost of Debby 2000--another system forecast to pose a possible hurricane threat to South FL that encountered shear and struck Hispaniola instead.You remind me of Bagdad Bob who always insisted the US Army was no where near Bagdad as a tank drove behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 This is the first real threat to South Florida in years. A lot could change, but the NHC forecast is currently the perfect scenario for a Cape Verde hurricane near Miami. If their current track is accurate it would rapidly intensify into major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream. We will know by Friday if this is a real threat for South Florida. It could hit Hispaniola, get sheared apart, or strengthen too early and recurve like the Euro says. We shall see. In any case I am excited. I will be stocking up on supplies tomorrow if this current NHC scenario holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 This is the first real threat to South Florida in years. A lot could change, but the NHC forecast is currently the perfect scenario for a Cape Verde hurricane near Miami. If their current track is accurate it would rapidly intensify into major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream. We will know by Friday if this is a real threat for South Florida. It could hit Hispaniola, get sheared apart, or strengthen too early and recurve like the Euro says. We shall see. In any case I am excited. I will be stocking up on supplies tomorrow if this current NHC scenario holds. I would add a 4th option. Erika holds its own but never really strengthens and hits Florida as a mid range storm. Personally I'd go with a weak sheared system eats Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 This is the first real threat to South Florida in years. A lot could change, but the NHC forecast is currently the perfect scenario for a Cape Verde hurricane near Miami. If their current track is accurate it would rapidly intensify into major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream. We will know by Friday if this is a real threat for South Florida. It could hit Hispaniola, get sheared apart, or strengthen too early and recurve like the Euro says. We shall see. In any case I am excited. I will be stocking up on supplies tomorrow if this current NHC scenario holds. I'm trying to hold my excitement in check. Never good to be in the middle of the cone 5-6 days out with Hispanolia also being a player. There is a lot that can go wrong yet but nevertheless I am intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 18z GFS still not biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Models are tightly clustered north of Hispaniola for now, if it's passing just north of Hispaniola Friday then we are in trouble. I don't think there will be any recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 18z GFS still not biting. Erika is booming in the gulf now towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Models are tightly clustered north of Hispaniola for now, if it's passing just north of Hispaniola Friday then we are in trouble. I don't think there will be any recurve. op gfs has been much further south than the ensembles, which may be why it is showing an open wave thru 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The gfs is notoriously bad for tropical cyclone forecasting. Don't look at erikas projection, instead look at the large scale systems which determine steering. It's fairly clear at this point Erika won't recurve, biggest and most crucial factor is whether it interacts with Hispaniola or passes well to the north. We will know Friday, maybe even by Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Good flare up on the East side now closer to the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 18z GFDL and HWRF are bombs. GFDL slightly deaper at 948mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 18z GFDL and HWRF are bombs. GFDL slightly deaper at 948mb. yep, as soon as erika passes hispaniola to the north it goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The gfs is notoriously bad for tropical cyclone forecasting. Don't look at erikas projection, instead look at the large scale systems which determine steering. It's fairly clear at this point Erika won't recurve, biggest and most crucial factor is whether it interacts with Hispaniola or passes well to the north. We will know Friday, maybe even by Thursday Say what now? The deterministic gfs has had the lowest or second lowest mean track error in the Atlantic basin for lead times out to five days for the the past 6+ years now. The gfs and ecmwf have been trading first place (statistically tied) back and forth for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 People need to get a grip, this isn't anything more than something to watch at this point. Board wide there is a hysteria that really needs to get checked as its frankly embarrassing. Ericka is a piece of crap right now and has a tough road ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 People need to get a grip, this isn't anything more than something to watch at this point. Board wide there is a hysteria that really needs to get checked as its frankly embarrassing. Ericka is a piece of crap right now and has a tough road ahead. seriously? nhc has a cane off the coast of south fl @ day 5...over warm waters/low shear/minimal dry air. fact is if the nhc track verifies we are looking at a deepening cyclone off the us coast. you cant wait until 24-48 hrs out to tell folks to prepare for a possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 People need to get a grip, this isn't anything more than something to watch at this point. Board wide there is a hysteria that really needs to get checked as its frankly embarrassing. Ericka is a piece of crap right now and has a tough road ahead. Well said, thanks. But it is interesting to see mets disagree and that is what learning is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 They are absolute garbage for tropical cyclone forecasting, period. Baseless claims are frowned upon TH. Present your facts or keep this type of comments to yourself please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Baseless claims are frowned upon TH. Present your facts or keep this type of comments to yourself please. I'll say it again, global models are GARBAGE for tropical cyclone forecasts. They are extremely innacurate since they cannot even resolve the structure of the tropical cyclone due to low resolution, and there's not enough data to initialize them even if they had enough resolution. Using the projection of a tropical cyclone in a global model is incredibly foolish, and anyone with tropical cyclone forecasting experience knows this. Deleting such comments because you "frown on them" is over moderation. Americanwx never used to be communist like that, so I don't accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 GFDL shows Erika turning northward around 120 hours, which makes no sense given the high pressure system that will be in place over the Eastern U.S. This is the time of year where there's barely any mid-latitude troughs interacting with the sub-tropics, so I'm fairly sure we will not be seeing a northerly turn before crossing 80 west. Models have a tendency to over-amplify mid-latitude troughs in the medium to long range this time of year, which might explain the GFDL behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'll say it again, global models are GARBAGE for tropical cyclone forecasts. They are extremely innacurate since they cannot even resolve the structure of the tropical cyclone due to low resolution, and there's not enough data to initialize them even if they had enough resolution. Using the projection of a tropical cyclone in a global model is incredibly foolish, and anyone with tropical cyclone forecasting experience knows this. Deleting such comments because you "frown on them" is over moderation. Americanwx never used to be communist like that, so I don't accept it. Stats tell otherwise, present your facts, otherwise I'll think you are pulling this out your arse, which wouldn't be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 00z SHIPS and LGEM no longwe bring Erika to Hurricane status for the first time since they've been run on the system. The conditions based on the 00z OFPI track look rather hostile with shear peaking to a hefty 23 knots and doesn't relax through day 5. Right now I'd lean towards Erika not surviving the next 48 hours and eventually getting caught up with the Greater Antilles...basically suffering a similar fate as Danny. Certainly nothing to get bent out of shape about, especially since this could very easily degenerate if it does not maintain convection during the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 One thing that needs to be watched is that GFS and now the Euro has Erica moving into shear and mountains the entire track until it exits Cuba. A awful turn of events for the models, but all solutions needs to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah I'm not exactly sure I agree TH. The GFS and EC are pretty valuable. The GFS as DTK noted, has done pretty well. Everyone has to flush out the Sandy bullsh*t. I remember (I believe earlier that year) when the euro took Debbie as a hurricane into Galveston while the GFS took it harmlessly into the FL panhandle a few days out. EC did not win that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 00z SHIPS and LGEM no longwe bring Erika to Hurricane status for the first time since they've been run on the system. The conditions based on the 00z OFPI track look rather hostile with shear peaking to a hefty 23 knots and doesn't relax through day 5. Right now I'd lean towards Erika not surviving the next 48 hours and eventually getting caught up with the Greater Antilles...basically suffering a similar fate as Danny. Certainly nothing to get bent out of shape about, especially since this could very easily degenerate if it does not maintain convection during the next two days. I have no idea where that shear is coming from. I think it's from the Pacific, but i'm not sure. Sounds suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The fact that none of the ECM and GFS ensembles have Erika doing much of anything is pretty telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 A remnant low or weak TS will always pose a threat, the true developement window for Erika is probably post-120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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