Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Tropical Storm Erika


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 826
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The LLC is really cruising.

 

This is very interesting!  I'm not sure how the moon phases factor in to developing cyclonic systems... there would most likely be some effects though perhaps not forecast-relevant.

Looking at the water vapor and infrared images, the location and behavior of this circulation are very hard to notice!  The convection behind it looks very substantial but as the forecast is saying, it may be integrated with other gyres; tomorrow will help us to see what shape the system really is in!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again.........

Not sure we can crown any model given how inconsistent all of them have been. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again.........

 

This does make some sense!  There is convection and circulation but fewer tropical traits than one might expect at this stage.

 

I think the following is accurate but i would rather indicate that it is just a bit more uncertain than i feel is necessary to present where the storm is very much active right now. 

I have not looked at water vapor returns from previous years' Cape Verde type systems but Erika is very much appearing at least to be the westernmost portion of a TUTT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is just like the Euro, weak low moving through extreme south FL. I wonder if the last holdout for a strong eastern system, the GFDL, will throw in the towel also. The King looks like it will prevail again.........

It seems like over the years middle range systems like this once they get nearer to near terms they always get corrected s like that and that's what's really happening this thing. It's gotten corrected so much it's intermingling with the islands and that usually is toxic. We'll see if it holds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well they totally screwed that analysis and forecast up, that's for damn sure. Doesn't make a huge difference but surprising in a bad way.

 

I do not see several swirls, there is 1 clearly defined center on radar and satellite. If they're getting confused by mid-level vortices in convection that's kind've sad.

Yes, the National Hurricane Center is "confused by mid-level vortices in convection", but you've got it on lock based on your radar analysis.

 

OK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In any event the GFS rams the center right into Hispaniola and the system seems to regenerate North of Haiti in about 24 hours.

Based on current trends, I will be very surprised if the COC is able to avoid a direct landfall, so to speak, on the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. As a result, it greatly diminishes my confidence in Erika's subsequent prospects for either significant intensification (if the COC can remain intact) or possible regeneration. At this point, I'd put the probabilities for Erika's survival through the DR and/or Haiti at an even 50%. The broad size of the overall circulation is the main reason I might lean more towards it's ultimate survival, as a TC, past Hispaniola.

All that being said, the reality is that no one truly knows just how detrimental interaction with Hispaniola will be on Erika, and how quickly she may recover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on current trends, I will be very surprised if the COC is able to avoid a direct landfall, so to speak, on the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. As a result, it greatly diminishes my confidence in Erika's subsequent prospects for either significant intensification (if the COC can remain intact) or possible regeneration. At this point, I'd put the probabilities for Erika's survival through the DR and/or Haiti at an even 50%. The broad size of the overall circulation is the main reason I might lean more towards it's ultimate survival, as a TC, past Hispaniola. All that being said, the reality is that no one truly knows just how detrimental interaction with Hispaniola will be on Erika, and how quickly she may recover.

Hopefully it helps clean up the multiple vorticies so we can start from a fresh slate over the warmest waters in the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully it helps clean up the multiple vorticies so we can start from a fresh slate over the warmest waters in the world.

I genuinely like your "glass half full" perspective, if Erika can't avoid significant interaction with Hispaniola.

It's arguably one of the worst places in the world (certainly in the NATL basin) for a TC to make a direct hit; for both the well-being of the citizens in the two countries and that of the TC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Almost like a multi-vortex tornado. Several vorticies spinning up and dying off until one of them comes in, deepens the pressure and bombs it out. I've seen videos of this happening and I've seen videos where the tornado can't get its act together and it just dies out. Most likely the case with Erika if it runs through Hispaniola.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the radar based LLC is rapidly moving west, then is it not ejecting itself from the rest of the system?

In previous years this has been the indication of a collapse of the tropical system.

If it survives such changes to its structure, would it reform further south towards the NHC placement? I assume that would move the forecasted tracks further west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the radar based LLC is rapidly moving west, then is it not ejecting itself from the rest of the system?

In previous years this has been the indication of a collapse of the tropical system.

If it survives such changes to its structure, would it reform further south towards the NHC placement? I assume that would move the forecasted tracks further west.

I don't think anyone, including the NHC completely understands exactly what is going on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2am Discussion

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is anticipated later today, and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several
hours and move near or over portions of the Dominican Republic later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. St. Thomas recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph
(78 km/h), and a Puerto Rico Seismic Network station at Yabucoa
Harbor in southeastern Puerto Rico recently reported a wind gust of
47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

 

 

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting the Virgin
Islands and portions of Puerto Rico, and will continue for the next
several hours. These conditions should spread westward across
portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas by late
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$
Forecaster Brennan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFTI, et al. are on crack if they think Erika passes directly over Pico Duarte and the tallest mountain range in Hispaniola, then goes on to become a Category 4 storm. Hell, she would be lucky to be pissing droplets after that pass.

It's not quite by itself although I would gather that all of these models come from the same mold so to speak.

 

gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People need to remember that there is literally no core for Hispaniola to disrupt... Erika is much more likely to survive or regenerate just based on that alone. Plus, it very much depends on where exactly a TC crosses Hispaniola as well.

At this point it looks like it will do directly over the heart of Hispaniola. 

 

avn_lalo-animated.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not quite by itself although I would gather that all of these models come from the same mold so to speak.

 

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

 

GFDL GFDL Hurricane Model Forecast Track/Intensity

GFDI Previous GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr

GHMI Previous Intensity-Modified GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr

GFDT GFDL Forecast Using a Different Vortex Tracking Algorithm

GFTI Previous GFDT Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr

GFDN Navy-Initialized Version of the GFDL Hurricane Model

GFNI Previous Navy-Initialized GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr

GFDE Extrapolated GFDL Forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...