wxtrackercody Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Almost looks like two distinct competing circulations Yup, I was just about to post this shortwave animation. Observations from recon and from St. Croix support the northern one to be the more dominant feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Yup, I was just about to post this shortwave animation. Observations from recon and from St. Croix support the northern one to be the more dominant feature. FWIW the 00z NAM shows that as the emerging center with the convection continuing to be displaced to the East of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The radar seems to show a tightening circulation just south of the radar site. Is it really tightening or is that just due to the beam hitting lower in the clouds as it approaches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like they found a 1011mb reading SE of the old location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The LLC near PR is really movin'... I got 266° at 33kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The LLC near PR is really movin'... I got 266° at 33kts wounder why recon is not flying over there. im puzzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Recon is finding a pronounced shift at 15.3N. If that's the dominant center, Erika is all but dead. A relocation that far south would mean a track over a good chunk of Hispaniola. I wish they would investigate the circulation near Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This thing is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Look at that new banding feature closer to the main convection. Now i know why models are bringing the center over PR because the one currently closer to the coast is racing off to the West and will miss. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The circulation on puerto rico radar is definitely the dominate center. Satellite shows the center decoupling from convection. If there is a circulation south of the dominant center it is simply a mid-level vorticity max associated with convection. Considering the vigorous nature of the circulation I don't expect a center relocation, but it will continue to be dragged south of track due to asymmetric convection, same behavior as the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The next 12 hours will be absolutely crucial. If Erika goes too far south its current center will be mauled. It needs to be far enough north for the center to at least go along the northern coastline, if not put some distance between itself and the coast. There will be vigorous orographic convection along the southern coast of hispaniola during the time of interaction. If the main center goes over the mountains then a new center would probably form along the southern coast of hispaniola, completely changing the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The circulation on puerto rico radar is definitely the dominate center. Satellite shows the center decoupling from convection. If there is a circulation south of the dominant center it is simply a mid-level vorticity max associated with convection. Considering the vigorous nature of the circulation I don't expect a center relocation, but it will continue to be dragged south of track due to asymmetric convection, same behavior as the last couple days. Tell the hurricane hunters that. They seem to be on a planet of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The HWRF looks like the most realistic scenario to me based on current observations http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082718-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The HWRF looks like the most realistic scenario to me based on current observations http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082718-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation NAM came in with the same conclusion fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Erika still a TS at 11pm adv W at 17 mph Winds 45 mph 16.6 N 65.3 W 1008mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 They put the center in the completely wrong position, why would they do that? To preserve the old forecast? That's gonna screw up all the model runs for sure, to initialize the vortex in the wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0520151100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and itappears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a largergyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croixproducing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past fewhours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initialposition is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poororganization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was ableto measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeastof the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at thesurface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The centralpressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika isnot strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensityduring the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will bemoving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feelthe effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-levelflow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, ithas the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is veryclose to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erikashould begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the nextseveral hours around the periphery of the western Atlanticsubtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on thesouthwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to thenorthwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the trackguidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show atropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days andmoving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during thelatter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually highuncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given thatthe cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects ofland for this to occur.The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to bevery heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islandstonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH$ Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0520151100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and itappears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a largergyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croixproducing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past fewhours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initialposition is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poororganization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was ableto measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeastof the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at thesurface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The centralpressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika isnot strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensityduring the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will bemoving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feelthe effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-levelflow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, ithas the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is veryclose to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erikashould begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the nextseveral hours around the periphery of the western Atlanticsubtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on thesouthwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to thenorthwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the trackguidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show atropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days andmoving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during thelatter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually highuncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given thatthe cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects ofland for this to occur.The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to bevery heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islandstonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well they totally screwed that analysis and forecast up, that's for damn sure. Doesn't make a huge difference but surprising in a bad way. I do not see several swirls, there is 1 clearly defined center on radar and satellite. If they're getting confused by mid-level vortices in convection that's kind've sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If the shear vector switches from northerly to southerly like that map shows, that could be the wild card. Imagine if the center re-formed in convection off the north coast of Hispaniola... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well they did say they were taking the mean of all the possible centers that they did detect also confirming earlier suspicions as we talked about it - there were more than one. The mean may not represent the previous fix trajectory so that much could easily be explained. It's poorly organized in the most obvious center just happens to be the one that's detectable by radar but they could be more than one out there still in fact that convective blob more to the South seems to be taking on-site want to curl of its own. Wouldnt itbe fascinating of the sink split into two distinct systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The GFS initilaized with the Southern circulation as the center, close to where the NHC placed it, not sure what role the NHC placement had if any on the current run, but earlier remarks stated that the new data would in the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well they totally screwed that analysis and forecast up, that's for damn sure. Doesn't make a huge difference but surprising in a bad way. I do not see several swirls, there is 1 clearly defined center on radar and satellite. If they're getting confused by mid-level vortices in convection that's kind've sad. I whole-heartedly concur with the main premise of this post! The choice to select a "mean" center for the initial position estimate isn't one I agree with, either, and suspect it was chosen to maintain more forecast continuity - in the absence of much confidence in the true position of the main COC. As has been pointed out by others previously...I too don't understand why RECON wasn't directed to investigate the more evident circulation (visble on both satellite and radar) just to the SE of PR. EDIT: The main point being that I feel it was prudent to have at least investigated the aforementioned prospective COC to make a more accurate assessment of Erika's structure. As most of us know, it will not be surprising to see multiple relocations of the dominate COC until Erika becomes much better organized, if it ever does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The LLC is really cruising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 In any event the GFS rams the center right into Hispaniola and the system seems to regenerate North of Haiti in about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The LLC is really cruising. That's quite an understatement. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.