IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 What did you expect? an eye wall? It's a weak tropical storm. Not quite, earlier on the long range it was showing a bit more convection but that has weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Would really love if recon could make a pass near that potential low level center near St. Croix. They found a 1008mb center much farther south...TISX has gusted as high as 54 knots recently. Pressure starting to rise there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That looks to be moving west through PR no way for it to miss Hispaniola now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It'll go directly over Hispaniola and entrain a ton of dry air, the circulation will be sloppy for days after that. Will be a nice wet tropical storm for Florida though. I've literally never seen a tropical cyclone hit hispaniola and still pose a significant threat to florida. It's not impossible it'll end up going south of Florida too if it really gets demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well this has been one big bucket of fail. Pressure keeps going up and up. Not looking good :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It'll go directly over Hispaniola and entrain a ton of dry air, the circulation will be sloppy for days after that. Will be a nice wet tropical storm for Florida though. I've literally never seen a tropical cyclone hit hispaniola and still pose a significant threat to florida. It's not impossible it'll end up going south of Florida too if it really gets demolished. Jeanne 2004. I remember tracking that storm and we wrote it off several times, especially when it made landfall in the Dominican Republic (where over 3000perished in Haiti). Ended up striking Fl. around Stuart as a major. Had to drive down and evacuate my elderly uncle and it was a very violent storm at landfall. Very similar track so far to Erika. Not saying Erika is a Jeanne, but interaction with Hispaniola doesn't always mean poof it's gone and they can and have gone on to have substantial impacts in Fl. and elsewhere. Granted its less common than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That LLC on PR Radar isn't the same center the RECON is flying. There are multiple LLC's within the wave axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 No ... untrue. It briefly entered Cat 5 status approximately 400 KM E of the Leeward Islands, and in fact, Hugo was never IN the Caribbean during that phase. Not trying to be a dink, just pointing things out. word Anyone who says this is Hugo doesn't know their history. This isn't going to be a significant system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That LLC on PR Radar isn't the same center the RECON is flying. There are multiple LLC's within the wave axis. its about time we start calling it for what it is. a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That LLC on PR Radar isn't the same center the RECON is flying. There are multiple LLC's within the wave axis. This is quite disorganized right now. After finding a very loose 1008mb on their first pass, it appears as though they're having trouble finding that same center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Who knows if it even makes it over PR. Radar looks openwavish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Who knows if it even makes it over PR. Radar looks openwavish Open waves are not really hurt by brief land interactions. Comon' guys. It's all in the Coriolis force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The feature on Puerto Rico radar appears to be the dominant center. The pressure at the St. Croix airport fell to 1006mb at 0z before rising to 1013mb. Winds were out of the east at 0z and have recently shifted to out of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 You can tell recon is baffled by their eratic flying after realizing the low is no longer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The feature on Puerto Rico radar appears to be the dominant center. The pressure at the St. Croix airport fell to 1006mb at 0z before rising to 1013mb. Winds were out of the east at 0z and have recently shifted to out of the southeast. That's doesn't look like it has any west winds either judging by radar. I'm sticking with my gone at 11pm call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That's doesn't look like it has any west winds either judging by radar. I'm sticking with my gone at 11pm call. Prolly will be gone. Was a fun system to track tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I don't think that we'll get a handle on the dominant center until we see a few more convective maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That's doesn't look like it has any west winds either judging by radar. I'm sticking with my gone at 11pm call. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes The developing center is south of St Croix. The swirl SE of PR is a remnant eddy. What a bizarre system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes The developing center is south of St Croix. The swirl SE of PR is a remnant eddy. What a bizarre system. Are you sure? Look at the banding starting to show up close to PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Are you sure? Look at the banding starting to show up close to PR. I think that is the LLC....but jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Are you sure? Look at the banding starting to show up close to PR. Why is it moving WSW? Seems to be rotating around a larger mean circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 its about time we start calling it for what it is. a wave. A wave that produced 45G64 mph winds in St. Croix 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 A wave that produced 45G64 mph winds in St. Croix 2 hours ago. embedded squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 embedded squall line It is still a tropical storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Those that are trying to say this is an open wave right now are just as bad as those thinking the cat 4 over OBX will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Almost looks like two distinct competing circulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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