huronicane Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 For muse only ... but Hugo hit near there... strong too. I think it RI'ed (or close to it) when it crossed the g-string Don't blame him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Don't blame him! all puns intended, btw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 You can also visualize why center jumps and re-fixes take place frequently with fledgling cyclones. ..That vortex center is tiny compared to the action associated with the UVM core(s) displaced to the E/S of it... If there is no lift over the top of that thing, it'd fill fast and be gone. I see your point. My thoughts with the convection to the SE waning, convection around the low will form. But we will have to wait until morning to see the outcome. will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 An interesting perspective is when considering all August/September tropical storms and tropical depressions within 50nm of the 2 p.m. EDT position of Erika. Just over half of the storms passed over or south of Cuba and that seems relatively unlikely with Erika. Most of the others recurved out to sea, although there is the unique case of Jeanne in 2004 that did a weird loop before turning back west into Florida. The closest match to the model consensus is Chris from 1988. That solution is highlighted above. Of the six systems that emerged north of the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm (or weaker) three became hurricanes and three remained fairly weak. There's so much of a split (in many aspects), it's hard to find any climo-based case that strongly leans in one way or the other in terms of intensity. As for track, if the system stays at least marginally organized once it moves into the Bahamas, I think it's probable that the system recurves. If it remains weaker, perhaps it does move into south Florida or dissipates all together. Gut still tells me the system dissipates or turns out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Reports from StormCarib.com coming in, looks like Dominica took it pretty hard, reports of massive flooding and lots of damage. Lets hope we don't hear anymore of this with this storm. My gut tells me otherwise for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika looking really good with deep convection over the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Intensity forecasts in the short to medium term have come down quite a bit in the 18Z models compared to 12Z. This is likely due to the higher likelihood of interaction with Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Intensity forecasts in the short to medium term have come down quite a bit in the 18Z models compared to 12Z. This is likely due to the higher likelihood of interaction with Hispaniola. I would not put any stock into the 18z suite with the systems structure changing to much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 erika should be relatively shear free once (if) she gets north of PR and hisp. most of the models looks to have hisp do too much damage for her to really ramp up after passing into the bahamas. we will see if the "jump" in the llc with this new convective blowup causes any track changes in the 18z/00z cycles. also good to see this blowup over the center with dmax yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 000WTNT35 KNHC 272036TCPAT5BULLETINTROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015...ERIKA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARDISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.6N 64.0WABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF GUADELOUPEMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika looking really good with deep convection over the center It's still sloppy but it's encouraging to see convection light up near the center. It's all about what happens with DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 You can now see what appears to be an eyewall or the beginnings of one on the long range San Juan radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GRL3 has a good presentation Buoy 42060 is showing 36mph with gusts to 42 out of the SSE---Pressure is 757.52 mmhg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GRL3 has a good presentation Buoy 42060 is showing 36mph with gusts to 42 out of the SSE---Pressure is 757.52 mmhg Nice to know the center will be sampled now. Also center looks north of models currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Eastern PR has quite a drought going. Would certainly be a case of too much too fast however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This thing is going to catch a big chunk of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This thing is going to catch a big chunk of Hispaniola. update new frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 gfs a tad north thru 24. misses hisp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 What is the necessity of giving play-by-play on every GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 What is the necessity of giving play-by-play on every GFS run? Souths winter has sucked so hard, we now treating Hurricanes as winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Souths winter has sucked so hard, we now treating Hurricanes as winter storms. That doesn't mean we need play by play in the main forum thread of the GFS. Everyone knows where to find it. If you want to do play by play of the GFS you can take it to your subforum, though I am sure you will get the same type of reception I am giving here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 That doesn't mean we need play by play in the main forum thread of the GFS. Everyone knows where to find it. If you want to do play by play of the GFS you can take it to your subforum, though I am sure you will get the same type of reception I am giving here. Not sure about that. The SE sub for this has been pretty messy and more banter than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 That doesn't mean we need play by play in the main forum thread of the GFS. Everyone knows where to find it. If you want to do play by play of the GFS you can take it to your subforum, though I am sure you will get the same type of reception I am giving here. Damn man, all information is related to the storm. If someone wants to analyze a hour stamp and compare, i see nothing wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Not sure about that. The SE sub for this has been pretty messy and more banter than anything. Good, have the play by play there then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 gfs a tad north thru 24. misses hisp. Its more east of the 12Z also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Damn man, all information is related to the storm. If someone wants to analyze a hour stamp and compare, i see nothing wrong with it. Is one thing, posting what the GFS shows hour by hour is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The further away from the coast, the better.... GFS looks like a much weaker Hugo still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This is no Hugo. Hugo was a cat 5 in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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