CCHurricane Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Yeah, the GGEM dumps a lot of rain. Sandy #2 with pinwheel action into New England as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 12z HWRF 970mb just East of KPBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The LLC does appear to have turned NW a slight bit on visible satellite imagery, though it could just be a wobble. As has been mentioned several times, the next 24 hours will be crucial, especially with higher shear values and an increasing tendency near Hispaniola. Most of the models are still keeping Erika north of Hispaniola, though they all said north of Puerto Rico as well yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 llc finally tugging NNW as the convection tries to catch up. might be just what it needs to miss hisp. she's almost ut of the worst of the shear now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 LMAO if this makes it into OBX, goodbye islands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 LMAO if this makes it into OBX, goodbye islands.... Yeah, I really hope this survives the trip just to see where this eventually ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 LMAO if this makes it into OBX, goodbye islands.... Be way way worse if its 100 miles further west.......I know the folks out there have long feared a true strong Cat 3 or 4 hitting the OBX especially a slow moving one it would in fact as you say make islands go goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 new blowup of convection just east of the exposed llc, trying hard to cover it up as it continues to move nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Euro coming in- Hispaniola keeps it from being much, entering south FL by 78 hours as a very weak depression or open wave. I think this is looking more and more likely based on the continuing south trend currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Good to see that the Euro has not lost its buzz kill solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Know what'd be awesome - if this thing went monster and missed the whole EC on a S-N trajectory, slammed into LI/NE ...then the Patriots won the next Superbowl. nice - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Yeah, I really hope this survives the trip just to see where this eventually ends up. Lol fortunately I don't believe a category five has ever made it that far north. Pretty to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 UKMET very similar to the Euro. This increases my confidence in a weak south FL strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 new blowup of convection just east of the exposed llc, trying hard to cover it up as it continues to move nw. Almost like it's moving NNW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Like I said last night, a weak Florida tropical storm is the most likely solution. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 UKMET very similar to the Euro. This increases my confidence in a weak south FL strike. Like I said last night, a weak Florida tropical storm is the most likely solution. Sent from my iPhone Not saying those solutions are incorrect, but the system is becoming stacked. The LLC has basically taken a northern track now with convection surrounding the eye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The 12z GEFS are spread into two distinct camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Would not bank my money on the Euro. Looking at the satellite right now, the LLC has taken a more northern track, with convectin around the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The Euro maintains the same mid-level vorticy as the rest of the guidance, albeit not as strong, but it's still there through 84 hours. The difference appears to be that the Euro track is just a smudge South of the model consensus which allows it to slip West instead of getting stuck under the developing ridge. The GFS/GGEM/HWRF/GFDL all keep the storm almost stalled east of KFLL which allows the system to organize and slide North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I wouldn't consider this LLC any kind of permanent feature ...wrt to the overall spatial-temporal existence of Erika. It is more likely you are just observing one of many LLC that have been developed, then ultimately slipped out away from the UVM axis, associated with the on-going apparent ml vortex component. I distinctly recall a LLC also appearing to be ejected WNW from Erika last evening, just before dark. Then I see this one doing the same similar behavior. Unless yesterday's looped back E then S then went up underneath ...then got ejected all over again, you are not observing the same feature. I don't believe there has been any looping of the lower component of the vortex - no. It is more likely that new LLCs are forming and subsequently being ejected as the system's total vertical structure remains tilted toward the SE. The dissipate shortly after eject. Following then from logic ... saying that the "center" appears to be moving NNW and will be free of island interference is less than logical sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Either way, you can't deny that new burst is right over the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 tip, you may be right. but the newest convection sure seems to be blowing up to the e of that llc as it pulls northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Starting to come into better view on the San Juan radar but still need the long range loop http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think it's more than a runaway LLC. You can see the higher clouds begin to arc around the eye. Multiple low pressures might have formed and are are battling out where the main pressure drop will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think it's more than a runaway LLC. You can see the higher clouds begin to arc around the eye. Multiple low pressures might have formed and are are battling out where the main pressure drop will be. Runaway LLC ? not sure what that means entirely. The point was, this is one of a few of them that have been manufactured as vigorous UVM attempts to mix vorticity into the coupled boundary layer, and since the mid level is (shear) tipping back away, any success in doing so then moves away from the ML axis or rotation as it then uncouple, and we see them as exposed... Now, if this particularly iteration of all that happens to have NEW covection? sure... have at it - but I was speaking to the multiple LL spin ups aspect, alone. Although again.. if there is any truth to that it doesn't make a goodly amount of sense to assume any one of them represents and "Erika center" - it would probably have to be derived by a mean of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Runaway LLC ? not sure what that means entirely. The point was, this is one of a few of them that have been manufactured as vigorous UVM attempts to mix vorticity into the coupled boundary layer, and since the mid level is (shear) tipping back away, any success in doing so then moves away from the ML axis or rotation and we see them as exposed... Now, if this particularly iteration of all that happens to have NEW covection? sure... have at it - but I was speaking to the multiple LL spin ups aspect, alone. Although again.. if there is any truth to that it doesn't make a goodly amount of sense to assume any one of them represents and "Erika center" - it would probably have to be derived by a mean of some sort. Yes, i know when a hurricane forms there are many pressure drops in the system. but this low pressure has boomeranged right back to the convection. Here is the scatterometer that shows this as the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This HWRF track is certainly interesting- this is a very hard place to get a hurricane landfall. Don't believe it really, but good model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Yes, i know when a hurricane forms there are many pressure drops in the system. but this low pressure has boomeranged right back to the convection. Here is the scatterometer that shows this as the center. You can also visualize why center jumps and re-fixes take place frequently with fledgling cyclones. ..That vortex center is tiny compared to the action associated with the UVM core(s) displaced to the E/S of it... If there is no lift over the top of that thing, it'd fill fast and be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This HWRF track is certainly interesting- this is a very hard place to get a hurricane landfall. Don't believe it really, but good model porn. Screen Shot 2015-08-27 at 3.22.38 PM.png For muse only ... but Hugo hit near there... strong too. I think it RI'ed (or close to it) when it crossed the g-string Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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