CCHurricane Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Canadian has a weak piece of garbage hitting FL. Models split again.... Pretty sure you are looking at an old 00z model run from 8/26. Canadian looks quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GGEM and Euro with the 4dvar res are better equipped than the GFS in showing TC intensity. And then I'd still favor the high res TC models. That's what they were designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 985mb drifting North East of FL on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New system on the GGEM off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 970's headed for Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New system on the GGEM off the NC coast. 00Z 12NAM also showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 00Z 12NAM also showed this. New system on the GGEM off the NC coast. If true, this will greatly affect the synoptic setup. Another factor to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Landfall in the Outerbanks on Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 If true, this will greatly affect the synoptic setup. Another factor to watch for.It's been there for days and has gone unnoticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Check again I am on meteocentre and it doesnt have the 00z GGEM run out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 For those interested the remnants end up in Chicago on the GFS in 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I am on meteocentre and it doesnt have the 00z GGEM run out yetI use SV paid service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GGEM and Euro with the 4dvar res are better equipped than the GFS in showing TC intensity. And then I'd still favor the high res TC models. That's what they were designed for. I totally understand that and am not trying to argue. The only thing I'm trying to understand is how the 00z GFS track is reliable...considering that the modeled intensity is so poor. I was under the impression that track and intesity go hand in hand, and it's difficult for one to be reliable without the other. Using the GFS for big picture moving parts, such as a general track idea of no curve out to sea, I completely understand (perhaps we are thinking the same thing but just talking around each other, haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I use SV paid service Ah ok.... which direction is Erika moving when it reaches OB on Tuesday? I would guess N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I totally understand that and am not trying to argue. The only thing I'm trying to understand is how the 00z GFS track is reliable...considering that the modeled intensity is so poor. I was under the impression that track and intesity go hand in hand, and it's difficult for one to be reliable without the other. Using the GFS for big picture moving parts, such as a general track idea of no curve out to sea, I completely understand (perhaps we are thinking the same thing but just talking around each other, haha) Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Ah ok.... which direction is Erika moving when it reaches OB on Tuesday? I would guess N?So far NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 00z UKIE at 144 due S of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Ends up stalling over VA and dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Doesn't look like a landfall to me, but then again these maps are horrible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 So far NNE After 144, it goes due N into VA... stalls and rains itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Even NYC gets 5-8" of rain on the GGEM. Slides East and off the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Doesn't look like a landfall to me, but then again these maps are horrible.. Use this site.. easier to read and see -- http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Use this site.. easier to read and see -- http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest thanks, it updated. trying to find free crap that updates and isnt slow is hard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Recon is out and about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 From Recon, 850mb center roughly 16.5N, 60.7W. Extrap pressure down a bunch, 850mb extrap 1001.7MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Radar and recon indicate that Erika has organized a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 From Recon, 850mb center roughly 16.5N, 60.7W. Extrap pressure down a bunch, 850mb extrap 1001.7MB See some 45-50mph wind reports too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Dropsonde at 1003 MB with 20 knot splashdown wind - so 1001 MB. A bit surprising but apparently a slowly strengthening system ATTM. Several suspect SMFR values of 44-47 knots north of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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