NycStormChaser Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Lol at the GGEM blowing up the remnants of Erika into a major off the East Coast. A major what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I think one run of the Canadian and more than a few GFS Ensembles had Erika lingering through 6 high tide cycles. GFDL had a 929mb off VA beach hooking NW. I'll never forget the model runs, they were unprecedented. You must be new to model tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Look how severe the flooding was with Irene and for the most part it was a complete fail. Yeah that fail put a tree on my roof and knocked the power out to my neighborhood for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 A major what? This is what the Canadian does with the moisture currently near the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 You must be new to model tracking. No, I challenge you to find a similar setup. They were not just model runs. You had a unusual cutoff ULL over the GOM and a huge blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. The above scenario did not materialize due to internal issues with Erika not developing enough. Deep down Erika Models > Sandy Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 This is what the Canadian does with the moisture currently near the Carolina coast. Oh ok. You left out a word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 No, I challenge you to find a similar setup. They were not just model runs. You had a unusual cutoff ULL over the GOM and a huge blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. The above scenario did not materialize due to internal issues with Erika not developing enough. Deep down Erika Models > Sandy Models. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Huh?He's saying that Erika could've been captured by the ULL had it been in a position to (i.e., had it gone north of islands) it's all moot though as nothing of the sort happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 While Erika had the chance of delivering a high impact to our area, the odds were still stacked against that happening, even if the she had make it into the Bahamas in tact. Most of the modeling was stalling the system near the Carolina coast or moving it due East once past OBX. Neither of those setups would have been good for us. The only model that really showed a threatening scenario was the GGEM which we all know is highly unstable and highly unreliable. Even though a few GFS runs showed a hooking system, it was in the extended range and the GFS is very unreliable once beyond day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Look how open for business the East is for Tropical impact. It's a shame we haven't gotten many homebrew systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Look how open for business the East is for Tropical impact. It's a shame we haven't gotten many homebrew systems. Well, to be fair, three out of six systems YTD were classified within a couple hundred miles of US coastline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Well, to be fair, three out of six systems YTD were classified within a couple hundred miles of US coastline... And to be fair only the first one was of any interest to our area, and that never materialized thanks to the strong ridge to our North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 if another tropical system were to hit us from the SE it would probably be well modeled days in advance like sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 LMFAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 LMFAO That would be great!!! We could use the rain from a deppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 That would be great!!! We could use the rain from a deppression She's not looking too bad at the moment, hard to tell if there is a circulation or not. Latest ASCAT pass missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 What is especially funny is that while it does look to be embedded in fairly strong Easterly flow, it almost looks to be moving Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 What is especially funny is that while it does look to be embedded in fairly strong Easterly flow, it almost looks to be moving Southeast. it's definitely being shunted SE-more model fantasy about this having any effect north of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Looks like the strong shear has gotten her again. Poor thing, has suffered its entire life, although very resilient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Long-tracker CV cane lighting up the GFS ensembles, let's see if it has legs. I truely believe this wave that just exited Africa will be the last EC potential threat of the season aside from Erika, whose chances are rapidly diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Long-tracker CV cane lighting up the GFS ensembles, let's see if it has legs. I truely believe this wave that just exited Africa will be the last EC potential threat of the season aside from Erika, whose chances are rapidly diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Invest 92L was initiated just east of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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