Rjay Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Open wave Erika at this point? Yes. Also this "storm" hasn't been inside one official NHC forecast cone over the last 2 and a half days. The sad part is they update it every 6 hours. This is coming from someone who never blasts the NHC (or NWS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Yes. Also this "storm" hasn't been inside one official NHC forecast cone over the last 2 and a half days. The sad part is they update it every 6 hours. This is coming from someone who never blasts the NHC (or NWS). Almost amusing how they just bodily shift the cone west a little more every 6 hours and assume an immediate NW motion even when Erika is headed almost due west. Before too long this will end up over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 And I agree with those who think this is probably going open wave. The LLC has had enough of a hard time keeping itself with the strong shear in the last few days, and an encounter with Hispaniola will likely put it to bed. Might just wash up with the first 10K foot peak it encounters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 What was once a possible threat to the U.S is a now just a piece of crap disturbance ( Erika ). Please bring on Winter. This summer has been really boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This summer has been awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Longest hurricane free streak in Florida continues and is approaching 10 years. But there have been numerous tropical storms or remnants that have produced very heavy to record rainfalls. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/florida-hurricane-drought-erika Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Longest hurricane free streak in Florida continues and is approaching 10 years. But there have been numerous tropical storms or remnants that have produced very heavy to record rainfalls. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/florida-hurricane-drought-erika If long range guidance is to be believed. If we transition into a La Nina next summer and the AMO flips as suggested, that streak could end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Adios erika. She never had a chance. The next wave is pretty far north and should recurve pretty early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Longest hurricane free streak in Florida continues and is approaching 10 years. But there have been numerous tropical storms or remnants that have produced very heavy to record rainfalls. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/florida-hurricane-drought-erika Pasco county has seen flooding rains lately...They don't need any more rain...the late 40's and the mid 2000's had Florida in the cross hairs...It will change again and they will get clobbered somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The mountains of my beloved country DR killed Erika Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 What was once a possible threat to the U.S is a now just a piece of crap disturbance ( Erika ). Please bring on Winter. This summer has been really boring. The strong Nino should mean there are plenty of storms around at least. Whether they're rain or snow however... I'll be happy to see the rain start back up here after this summer dried everything up. Should be plenty stormy in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 If long range guidance is to be believed. If we transition into a La Nina next summer and the AMO flips as suggested, that streak could end. It could always end at any point,but it's pretty impressive that it occurred mostly during a +AMO era. The Danny stats are pretty remarkable also. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/635882263553572865?lang=en Danny is the 26th Atl MH in a row to not impact the US as a MH. Odds are ~1:7400, given the 1900-2000 rate of 29% of all MH impacting US. Danny generated 9.2 ACE. This is the least generated by a MH forming south of 20N, east of 60W since 1950 - beating Fred in 2009 (9.9 ACE). Since 2011, 6 of 9 (67%) of Atlantic major hurricanes (MH) have lasted less than 1 day at MH strength. The 1900-2000 average is 29%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 It could always end at any point,but it's pretty impressive that it occurred mostly during a +AMO era. The Danny stats are pretty remarkable also. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/635882263553572865?lang=en Danny is the 26th Atl MH in a row to not impact the US as a MH. Odds are ~1:7400, given the 1900-2000 rate of 29% of all MH impacting US. Danny generated 9.2 ACE. This is the least generated by a MH forming south of 20N, east of 60W since 1950 - beating Fred in 2009 (9.9 ACE). Since 2011, 6 of 9 (67%) of Atlantic major hurricanes (MH) have lasted less than 1 day at MH strength. The 1900-2000 average is 29%. Amazing. We are due for a big one. Danny did produce a fun small mid level swell for the east coast. Fun waves the last two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Amazing. We are due for a big one. Danny did produce a fun small mid level swell for the east coast. Fun waves the last two days Surprised anything even made it all the way up there given how tiny Danny was and how short of a time it was a hurricane. I still remember the swells Sandy made-that was the craziest thing I'd ever seen, up until the night it hit of course. Each of those sounded like a nuclear bomb when they crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Hello Fred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 This is what you call riding the south side of the forecast envelope. https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/637735673710182400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Hey guys i live basically at sea level now so tropical events have a whole new meaning. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Hey guys i live basically at sea level now so tropical events have a whole new meaning. see ya Which is why everyone should be accepting of Erika dieing out before she had legs. The possible scenarios were unprecedented. Even as a Tropical Wave, she caused immense flooding in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Which is why everyone should be accepting of Erika dieing out before she had legs. The possible scenarios were unprecedented. Even as a Tropical Wave, she caused immense flooding in Florida.How is it unprecedented for a tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Florida? Sounds like another one of your snarky "eveeything is caused by global warming" comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Which is why everyone should be accepting of Erika dieing out before she had legs. The possible scenarios were unprecedented. Even as a Tropical Wave, she caused immense flooding in Florida. Any tropical system can cause immense flooding. Allison in 2001 cause immense flooding in TX long after landfall. Erika wasn't "unprecedented" in any way. Since parts of FL are still in a drought, it was welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Mark my words, it would of been unprecedented had it developed into a hurricane. Unprecedented in terms of long-term impacts and 50/50 chance of Sandy part 2. How is it unprecedented for a tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Florida? Sounds like another one of your snarky "eveeything is caused by global warming" comments. That is just your mind trying to rationalize your way out. It's time to accept reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Mark my words, it would of been unprecedented had it developed into a hurricane. Unprecedented in terms of long-term impacts and 50/50 chance of Sandy part 2. That is just your mind trying to rationalize your way out. It's time to accept reality. wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Mark my words, it would of been unprecedented had it developed into a hurricane. Unprecedented in terms of long-term impacts and 50/50 chance of Sandy part 2. That is just your mind trying to rationalize your way out. It's time to accept reality. You trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Look how severe the flooding was with Irene and for the most part it was a complete fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 You trolling? I have the ensemble graphics. The setup was ripe for a hooking TC, possibly major traveling over a record warm gulf stream. ^Isentropic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I think one run of the Canadian and more than a few GFS Ensembles had Erika lingering through 6 high tide cycles. GFDL had a 929mb off VA beach hooking NW. I'll never forget the model runs, they were unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I have the ensemble graphics. The setup was ripe for a hooking TC, possibly major traveling over a record warm gulf stream. ^Isentropic It looks like we'll have more chances. The GFS has another Cape Verde storm developing South of Fred in a few days that eventually runs into the shear axis over the NE Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I think one run of the Canadian and more than a few GFS Ensembles had Erika lingering through 6 high tide cycles.The GGEM is awful for TC forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Lol at the GGEM blowing up the remnants of Erika into a major off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Lol at the GGEM blowing up the remnants of Erika into a major off the East Coast. Oh lawd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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