Tropics: Erika

[IsentropicLift]

It's just a pretty text book example of a trough over the Lakes capturing the system as it goes by. 

 

[WXPRONY]

The funniest part about the GGEM is that it shows Erika moving OTS and then it gets trapped by an ULL over the Lakes and tugged back towards the coast. The flooding would rival all time records on the DE River and it would be pretty nasty up here too, although the reservoirs are a lot lower than they were preceding Irene. 

 

Sorry charlie, for what little more the GGEM Ensembles are worth than its operational model, it doesn't support its operational run.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=168

[jm1220]

975mb is not even the true pressure. This would rival Sandy and be entirely warm-core.

Sandy was 940mb as it neared Atlantic City so no, it would not rival Sandy. Not even close. An entirely warm core storm would collapse once it hit cold water north of the Gulf Stream. It would need a cold core trough to phase in the way Sandy did for it to be a similar strength storm, or it would have to rush Long Island at Cat 5 intensity like 1938 did. Neither are even slightly likely. If it went north up the coast it would likely be as a rainy but dissipating tropical storm becoming extra tropical, maybe like an Irene. And that's if it gets its act together over the Bahamas and tracks favorably, another big if.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Sandy was 940mb as it neared Atlantic City so no, it would not rival Sandy. Not even close. An entirely warm core storm would collapse once it hit cold water north of the Gulf Stream. It would need a cold core trough to phase in the way Sandy did for it to be a similar strength storm, or it would have to rush Long Island at Cat 5 intensity like 1938 did. Neither are even slightly likely. If it went north up the coast it would likely be as a rainy but dissipating tropical storm becoming extra tropical, maybe like an Irene. And that's if it gets its act together over the Bahamas and tracks favorably, another big if.

Agreed Sandy needs to be left out of 99.99% of tropical talk. There is a reason it has a 600 year recurrence rate.

As far as a cat 3 making it to our area the only 2 true examples are 1815 an 1938. In 1815 the water at the battery rose something like 13 feet in one hour. This indicates to me it was flying north over 40 knots. For 1938 we know for sure it was flying north at 50 knots. This means the times spent over the cool continental shelf waters is small a couple hours. This is not enough time for the core to collapse. And thus both were cat3

[AvantHiatus]

Agreed Sandy needs to be left out of 99.99% of tropical talk. There is a reason it has a 600 year recurrence rate.

As far as a cat 3 making it to our area the only 2 true examples are 1815 an 1938. In 1815 the water at the battery rose something like 13 feet in one hour. This indicates to me it was flying north over 40 knots. For 1938 we know for sure it was flying north at 50 knots. This means the times spent over the cool continental shelf waters is small a couple hours. This is not enough time for the core to collapse. And thus both were cat3

Impossible to know.

 

Furthermore, this is the most favorable setup thus far for getting a strong TC more north than usual. We are experiencing record OHC levels along the western branch of the Gulf Stream and elevated SSTA. All it needs to do to maintain is stay 100 miles offshore and quickly hook left to avoid dieing due to heat starvation.

 

Once you get north of LI, your chances drop off greatly of course. A landfall from the east on Cape Cod is not the same beast as say something into Ocean City, MD.

[AvantHiatus]

Follow the 28C isotherm.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_newdisp_sst_global_lat_lon_ophi0.png

[jm1220]

The depiction was also 372 hrs out on a GFS run. Just saying.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Impossible to know.

Furthermore, this is the most favorable setup thus far for getting a strong TC more north than usual. We are experiencing record OHC levels along the western branch of the Gulf Stream and elevated SSTA. All it needs to do to maintain is stay 100 miles offshore and quickly hook left to avoid dieing due to heat starvation.

Once you get north of LI, your chances drop off greatly of course. A landfall from the east on Cape Cod is not the same beast as say something into Ocean City, MD.

There is a reason there are only 2 examples of majors up here in hundreds of years. There is 1635 but not nearly enough info on that to pass judgment.

On the other hand there are tons of storms that collapsed before landfall.

Best example is Gloria. Gloria was forecasted to be a major at landfall. And like 38 was a cat 5 at one time to our south. Diffrence is Gloria moved much slower and had much more time to weaken then 38 that was rocketing north

[mob1]

There is a reason there are only 2 examples of majors up here in hundreds of years. There is 1635 but not nearly enough info on that to pass judgment.

On the other hand there are tons of storms that collapsed before landfall.

Best example is Gloria. Gloria was forecasted to be a major at landfall. And like 38 was a cat 5 at one time to our south. Diffrence is Gloria moved much slower and had much more time to weaken then 38 that was rocketing north

Sandy was a Category one storm and winds were kind of meh as far as hurricanes go, parts of long island have had at least 10 storms in the past century that produced higher wind speeds than Sandy. Sandy was anomalous for it's slow speed, size and angle of approach, all of which contributed to the record surge. If you're a really hurricane fanatic though and want to see real higher wind gusts, something like 1944 would be great, NYC recorded a 100+ mph wind gust even though it was a Category one when making landfall in LI. Hazel is a completely different beast and even though it passed well west we still saw record breaking winds in our region. In essence, Sandy was anomalous but I'd still love to see truly impressive winds IMBY.

[IsentropicLift]

I actually like the 12z NAVGEM track. 

 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

SREF continue to be interesting

 

[bigtenfan]

Isn't the SREF a short term model only?

[IsentropicLift]

Isn't the SREF a short term model only?

It has no value, lower than the NAM, but I watch it for trends.

[MJO812]

Erika brushes cape cod on gfs

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Erika brushes cape cod on gfs

That's the perfect track for surfers. Big epic waves offshore winds and no one gets hurt (directly).

I'm still not sure about this until after DR. If she's still kicking after the pass well then it's game on.

Today's trends were good. I give a current 30% chance of complete dissapation

[Allsnow]

12z euro was nothing

[rcad1]

Looks like the 11pm track brushes the whole East Coast of FLorida.. thinking it makes landfall in South Georgia.

[Rjay]

Looks like the 11pm track brushes the whole East Coast of FLorida.. thinking it makes landfall in South Georgia.

GA is the last place I'd ever think any system would make landfall.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

GA is the last place I'd ever think any system would make landfall.

Yeah it's pretty tucked in. But who thought jersey from the east so it's possible. Still waiting for the DR interaction

[jm1220]

GA is the last place I'd ever think any system would make landfall.

Last was Doria in 1964 I think. 

[Juliancolton]

Last was Doria in 1964 I think. 

Dora was actually just over the border into Florida, so the most recent GA hurricane landfall is David '79.

 

[CIK62]

Waiting for the 06Z GFDL since it seems to be the only major model holdout for an EC hurricane event of any merit.   The 0Z GFS actually still has Erica's remnants emerging off Fl. coast on Sept. 08 (after a long dance inland near GA/FL border) and redeveloping while going northeast(still around @hr. 384)!

 

Update:   06Z still looks just as mean at the end of the run as before.  Key is it shows Erica staying off mainland FL>>>>>

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082806&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=210

 

Compare with equivalent GFS>>>>>

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015082806&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=70

[dmillz25]

I think Erika weakens considerably over DR but stays alive

[mob1]

The Canadian still brings Erika pretty close to LI, it's a shame that it's extremely unlikely to verify.

[WXPRONY]

The Canadian still brings Erika pretty close to LI, it's a shame that it's extremely unlikely to verify.

The GGEM is one of the most unreliable, atrocious models for tracking tropical cyclones. The only thing it's good for is click bait. GFS, Euro and UK are the way to go in these situations in terms of the Globals.

[mriceyman]

Have a huge outdoor job in philly next saturday and sunday.. Any chance this thing hits philly with any kind of precip next weekend?

[WXPRONY]

12Z GFDL has surrendered to reality as well.

[Wannabehippie]

Open wave Erika at this point?

[Juliancolton]

It's dead, Jim.

[AvantHiatus]

Not to beat a dead horse but 18z GFS has something brewing in the west Atlantic. We'll probably have a homebrew system at some point if the heat ridge doesn't cap the atmosphere.