Morris Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Getting its act together again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The intensity models are starting to diverge. They were all sure of a strengthening storm in 72 hours. Now not so sure. Puerto Rico and the north coast of DR is going to be tough for this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The intensity models are starting to diverge. They were all sure of a strengthening storm in 72 hours. Now not so sure. Puerto Rico and the north coast of DR is going to be tough for this thing image.jpg Actually all models do show strengthening as of 72hrs. You must mean less strengthening than earlier outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Starting look like this takes a much further westerly path, maybe even missing PR and Hispanola but to the south instead of to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Starting look like this takes a much further westerly path, maybe even missing PR and Hispanola but to the south instead of to the north. Your focusing to much on the convection instead of the center. I will say however it's not looking good I would put chances of the Dominican republic mountains tearing this apart as high right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Your focusing to much on the convection instead of the center. I will say however it's not looking good I would put chances of the Dominican republic mountains tearing this apart as high right now. many factors appear to be pointing to this being a weak non factor for many-shear, a possible path across mountainous land, Carribean conditions not that favorable etc. All the conditions pointing to a bigger storm were predicated on a further north path which has not materialized. Still moving due west as of the last NHC update. Can't buy a strong hurricane the past 7 -8 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Actually all models do show strengthening as of 72hrs. You must mean less strengthening than earlier outputs.Correct. Less strengthening. The particular models posted were all in agreement of strong strengthening before. Now, not so much agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Big flooding in Dominica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 12z GFS has the center near Jacksonville on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I heard that the center of Erika relocated further south. Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GGEM shows Erika coming up the jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The funniest part about the GGEM is that it shows Erika moving OTS and then it gets trapped by an ULL over the Lakes and tugged back towards the coast. The flooding would rival all time records on the DE River and it would be pretty nasty up here too, although the reservoirs are a lot lower than they were preceding Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The remnant ULL also hangs all through Labor Day weekend. Impacts from hours 168 through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Probably not happening. Sandy was already a super rare event. The GGEM forecast is not even close to what Sandy did. It's very close to Irene, and we get these two or three times a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GGEM forecast is not even close to what Sandy did. It's very close to Irene, and we get these two or three times a decade. That makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 When the system crosses the NJ coast the pressure is somewhere around the upper 980's. Think of it as a strong Noreaster. Unfortunately the right front quadrant goes right over NYC, but the winds probably wouldn't be that bad. Coming from that angle we would probably see a decent pre as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika trying to stack up with the MLC on the visible. Interesting trends today. GFS keeps Erika around for almost the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 If you want to see something that will really make you LOL then look at the end of the 12z GFS, now that's much closer to a Sandy esque event. At hr 300 it has the center near Bermuda and and at hr 372 it's just SE of the 40/70 Benchmark, clipping Cape Cod with a < 965mb surface pressure. All caused by a deep trough building into the TN Valley. About 12 hours sooner and it would have kept hooking right into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika trying to stack up with the MLC on the visible. Interesting trends today. GFS keeps Erika around for almost the entire run. eh? The LLC just got ejected out of the blob, west of Montserrat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 eh? The LLC just got ejected out of the blob, west of Montserrat. Convection is actually developing near the LLC for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Try this hook on for size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 975mb is not even the true pressure. This would rival Sandy and be entirely warm-core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Need to wait and see if the system survives HP If only we had a well-developed system pre-60W. On the flipside, that may have guaranteed a recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Try this hook on for size Well there my freind is what I dream of. That would mean just tremendous surf for an extended period during the warmest water temps of the year. Another 600 year event. Aka not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 975mb is not even the true pressure. This would rival Sandy and be entirely warm-core. That's more like an Edna. Devestating for ENE but we are on the western weaker side. It really wouldn't be all that bad. As depicted.I really think Erica is going to relocate under the southern convection and take a track right in to 10k mountains. Aka see ya! Not a Debby downer either just looks like reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 That's more like an Edna. Devestating for ENE but we are on the western weaker side. It really wouldn't be all that bad. As depicted. I really think Erica is going to relocate under the southern convection and take a track right in to 10k mountains. Aka see ya! Not a Debby downer either just looks like reality I would hope so, but it looks to be reforming now and the window is closing for collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Well there my freind is what I dream of. That would mean just tremendous surf for an extended period during the warmest water temps of the year. Another 600 year event. Aka not gonna happen Obviously if it happens, something has changed in the system. Coming only 3 years after Sandy. It's likely we will see some adjustments down the road in mean TC tracks. The process is detailed somewhat in Hansen's melt dynamics paper. The northward relocation of the Bermuda/Azores high is a novel indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I would hope so, but it looks to be reforming now and the window is closing for collapse. One thing is for sure PR needs rain. I'm surprised you are rooting for dissipation. I personally would like to see this bomb out in the Bahamas. (They can handle anything under a cat3 with minimal impact) then slowly recurve between the OBX and Bermuda. Jeff masters who has forgotten more then I know is putting chances low 20% of dissapation. I think it's higher at 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 One thing is for sure PR needs rain. I'm surprised you are rooting for dissipation. I personally would like to see this bomb out in the Bahamas. (They can handle anything under a cat3 with minimal impact) then slowly recurve between the OBX and Bermuda. Jeff masters who has forgotten more then I know is putting chances low 20% of dissapation. I think it's higher at 50% I agree with Jeff Masters but I think this is a grave threat down the road and is not worth the damage. It's out of my hands so I am just a spectator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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