SACRUS Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 We can use some rain, but this isn't likely to happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 We can use some rain, but this isn't likely to happen here. Nothing can be ruled out. This could be Tropical Storm Baccula or track like Andrew or Hugo for all we know. In any case something of interest to keep an eye on along with the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Borrowed from the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The 06z GFS takes a Charley track across Florida and then up the coast with a close miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/636161496314171392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Helene in 1958 had a track like that missing the US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The 06z GFS takes a Charley track across Florida and then up the coast with a close miss for us. Sign me up for that all day every day!! Just remember all possibilitys are on the table. Including the Nino shredder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Looks like a similar track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 is that Gloria's track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 is that Gloria's track? Yes, that's Gloria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Yes, that's Gloria. Rode that storm out at my parents house in Massapequa. Eye passed right overhead. I wasn't even one year old and had notched my first hurricane landfall . Erika still has forever to go. First up will be to see if she survives shear and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Rode that storm out at my parents house in Massapequa. Eye passed right overhead. I wasn't even one year old and had notched my first hurricane landfall . Erika still has forever to go. First up will be to see if she survives shear and dry air. Agree...given that, it's possible it just dissipates over the next 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Agree...given that, it's possible it just dissipates over the next 2-3 days Making a recovery with deeper convection closer to the center but I agree that Erika needs to survive the next 72 hours, then it should be in a much more favorable environment, unless you believe in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Making a recovery with deeper convection closer to the center but I agree that Erika needs to survive the next 72 hours, then it should be in a much more favorable environment, unless you believe in the GFS. All the problems aside at least it's a much larger circulation then Danny. And Gloria would have been just as bad as Sandy surge wise had it hit at high not low tide. For Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Rode that storm out at my parents house in Massapequa. Eye passed right overhead. I wasn't even one year old and had notched my first hurricane landfall . Erika still has forever to go. First up will be to see if she survives shear and dry air. In Oceanside we were on the western edge of the inside of the eye. I remember going from super stormy to bright and sunny then back into the soup but missing the real storminess. What a mess the beach was in Lido/Long Beach the day after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Bad Euro run through day 4, open wave in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Bad Euro run through day 4, open wave in the Bahamas. major hurricane to open wave in 12 hrs...(0z vs 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 GEM has it fizzling out too. ends up weak in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 In Oceanside we were on the western edge of the inside of the eye. I remember going from super stormy to bright and sunny then back into the soup but missing the real storminess. What a mess the beach was in Lido/Long Beach the day after.[/quote What do you mean by missing the real storminess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 At least the IR presentation has improved remarkably the last few hours, and were headed towards the diurnal maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Seems like if Erika can hold together the largest threat zone is Florida currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 In Oceanside we were on the western edge of the inside of the eye. I remember going from super stormy to bright and sunny then back into the soup but missing the real storminess. What a mess the beach was in Lido/Long Beach the day after.Sandy was much worse in Long Beach than Gloria. Gloria caused some surge damage to the boardwalk and flooded some low lying homes, Sandy forced the entire boardwalk to have to be replaced, made the beach practically unrecognizable and washed feet of sand into town, and destroyed nearly 1000 homes just in Long Beach, while heavily damaging thousands more. A combination of high tide, being on the right front quadrant, and the huge storm size. I wasn't alive for Gloria, but locals chuckle when comparing the two, not even worthy of the same conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 My God. 18z GEFS P007 and P008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 My God. 18z GEFS P007 and P008.Can you post them please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Sandy was much worse in Long Beach than Gloria. Gloria caused some surge damage to the boardwalk and flooded some low lying homes, Sandy forced the entire boardwalk to have to be replaced, made the beach practically unrecognizable and washed feet of sand into town, and destroyed nearly 1000 homes just in Long Beach, while heavily damaging thousands more. A combination of high tide, being on the right front quadrant, and the huge storm size. I wasn't alive for Gloria, but locals chuckle when comparing the two, not even worthy of the same conversation.Gloria was more of a pure tropical event. In that the strongest winds and highest surge were confined to the right front quadrant only. Long beach was on the west side of the eye. Throw in a low tide landfall and it wasn't that bad. Had it been further west and high tide and it would have been worse then Sandy as Gloria had an intact core and eye wall with winds stronger then Sandy and a much larger surge. Again east of the eye wall. There were gusts in suffolk to 120 in Gloria. Far stronger then Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Weakened a lot this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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