yoda Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 yay SE Bahamas Tropical Storm Watch, along with Turks and Caicos Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 NHC keeps Erika at TS strength, nudges track east.I hear they didn't find any tropical storm force winds at the surface or flight level. They want to keep it a tropical storm because they don't want to send conflicting messages to the public (canceling tropical storm watches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 They came across some TS force winds this morning but nothing I've seen suggested they've seen much since. Erika looks worse than it did 12 hours ago IMO. That said I think keeping it as a TS is the right call. With another convective burst tonight it could be right back to where it was this morning I suppose, and I imagine there would be some difficulty changing current watches and warnings. No need to confuse the public... I agree.. it's a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So about the GFS. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_pres_wind_atl_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah, impressive run, though I don't see a flush hit yet. The pressure on the map I was looking at on TT was much higher for some reason. It's turning southeast at 192. RIP SC/NC Coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 One step closer to action lol. Next run the Euro, GFS, and GEM coalesce around the Bob Chill Special Watch it hit Florida from the NE. The beach erosion would be off the charts, can't even imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The important point is that the above pattern almost gurantees a US landfall from the NE or SE for somebody. Alot can change in 240 hours. Don't get me wrong, it is a bizarre setup that would take awhile to play out. It looks very similar to Ophelia 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It looks very similar to Ophelia 2005. Except for intensity. Deep down it is the hell that is 1899 reincarnated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Bermuda gets the right-front quadrant of a Category 4/5. Like I said earlier, in hindsight it's not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 We should get some really fun op runs for the next day or 2 as Erika gets its act together. Then the inevitable rug pull until the Nam goes bonkers. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 lol, no LOL, I was only kidding. I thought you'd get a kick out of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 LOL, I was only kidding. I thought you'd get a kick out of that one. I did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Isabel redux on the Korean model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Sad that this thread has better discussions than the main one outside our region, but game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 We should get some really fun op runs for the next day or 2 as Erika gets its act together. Then the inevitable rug pull until the Nam goes bonkers. Good times. Always good to have a test run for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Isabel redux on the Korean model pics or it didnt happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 My sister is in Turks and Caicos...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GFS deepens later. Looks like a South Carolina landfall around hr 150 edit: hr 156 actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GFS deepens later. Looks like a South Carolina landfall around hr 150 Yup... moves N right up the SE coast into N SC... then looks to stall and rain itself out in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GGEM has what appears to be landfall in C NC it would appear late Tuesday... then Erika moves due N and rains itself out over VA UKIE due S of ILM at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Through hour 210 06z GFS now looks OTS. Long way to go until we really have an idea of what'll happen. That hard right turn OTS is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 pics or it didnt happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 cool pic from the hurricane hunters yesterday over Erika... reallllllyyyyy pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 pics or it didnt happen Doesn't matter. The NHC tossed it due to skarkvective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 cool pic from the hurricane hunters yesterday over Erika... reallllllyyyyy pretty. speechless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Headed right for shredarola on the latest track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Its going to take some waltz type dancing to get around PR and I'm still not sold on it missing Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Puerto Rico does have some higher terrain but it's not the mountainous region that Hispaniola contains. The center would also likely be spending less than 12 hours overhead so I am not that worried about it surviving the trip. It needs to miss the DR though. I would say that it still has a chance to do so, but admittedly things are looking a bit more grim this morning track wise. It appears as if the 12z guidance has initialized with a projected center closer to the mid-level circulation that we saw yesterday and should it be able to organize some today it would then have the diurnal max coming up tonight while still over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Puerto Rico does have some higher terrain but it's not the mountainous region that Hispaniola contains. The center would also likely be spending less than 12 hours overhead so I am not that worried about it surviving the trip. It needs to miss the DR though. I would say that it still has a chance to do so, but admittedly things are looking a bit more grim this morning track wise. It appears as if the 12z guidance has initialized with a projected center closer to the mid-level circulation that we saw yesterday and should it be able to organize some today it would then have the diurnal max coming up tonight while still over water. There appears to be a good cluster on the extreme north side of the islands at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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