mappy Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 What a ******* weenie run that was. which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 What a ******* weenie run that was. eh not crazy exciting here really except for some rain mainly east of 95. winds aren't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 which model? The GEM, posted above. We get 10" of rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 The GEM, posted above. We get 10" of rain lol. weird. thread keeps jumping to later posts so i miss things. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Reminds me of Irene, just a lot slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Reminds me of Irene, just a lot slower and wrong. it won't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 eh not crazy exciting here really except for some rain mainly east of 95. winds aren't that impressive. Pretty low probs of wind impact here no matter which way you slice it. At least the way it looks now. It would require a near perfect track off the coast of e fl - carolinas - into obx and pass to our west. And would have to be a fast mover on top of it AND make landfall as a Cat 2+. That's a whole lotta wishcasting right there. lol. But I'm going to hold out for a cat 4 right up the bay until it's off the table. And I'm going to buy a megamillions ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 and wrong. it won't verify I think a track into Florida is the most likely scenario currently, but all models show the system moving North and not across the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 FWIW, 12z GFDL brings it down to 930.5mb, HWRF down to 941.7mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Pretty low probs of wind impact here no matter which way you slice it. At least the way it looks now. It would require a near perfect track off the coast of e fl - carolinas - into obx and pass to our west. And would have to be a fast mover on top of it AND make landfall as a Cat 2+. That's a whole lotta wishcasting right there. lol. But I'm going to hold out for a cat 4 right up the bay until it's off the table. And I'm going to buy a megamillions ticket. Yeah pretty hard to get a huge wind maker here overall.. need something coming in fast in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah pretty hard to get a huge wind maker here overall.. need something coming in fast in general. The CMC shows an ocean derecho if it can go just a bit more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Reminds me of Irene, just a lot slower You might wanna take that map down. It's a little early for the Western weenies to start complaining about being fringed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The CMC shows an ocean derecho if it can go just a bit more west ha yes. I'd probably favor the south track to get any remnants in here.. think a strong north track ends up more OTS if it happens. officially, I'm expecting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The GEM, posted above. We get 10" of rain lol. Fail. Looks like 5-6". I just took a quick glance. Forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Too bad nothing is showing a front/trough traversing the middle of the country after landfall. Tropical getting absorbed into a front has made some pretty prolific rain events in these parts along with spinups and training. I'm not seeing anything strong in the steering dept next week. Would suck for it to make landfall and just spin itself out over a relatively small area. My yard is about as dry and crunchy as it gets. I've missed out on all the recent rain ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Too bad nothing is showing a front/trough traversing the middle of the country after landfall. Tropical getting absorbed into a front has made some pretty prolific rain events in these parts along with spinups and training. I'm not seeing anything strong in the steering dept next week. Would suck for it to make landfall and just spin itself out over a relatively small area. My yard is about as dry and crunchy as it gets. I've missed out on all the recent rain ops. The Canadian is likely too conservative on intensity for whatever reason. Just taking the blend between globals and mesoscale models places most of us in a precarious position with a blocking ridge in place. Not to mention the beach erosion from such a track would rival storms like Ash Wednesday 62 and Sandy (south of Atlantic City). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 To further illustrate my point and reveal the true potential of Erika, the consensus is growing for a track east of or along the Florida coast. The only unknown is the North Atlantic setup. A properly timed +NAO almost guarantees a stall and Erika is well placed in the flow to get strung up along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z Euro turns up FL coast and sits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 What hour are you out to? saw a tweet with a pic of the euro out to 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks like Erica will miss land on Euro, but not by much. Gets sub 970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Hr 180 963mb almost heading due east from Charleston, SC Latitude, hr 192 957mb still heading E/ENE. Odd how it just hooks hard right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Worst track ever. Misses land but only after a week of hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 Worst track ever. Misses land but only after a week of hype. cackled out loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I don't exactly see how this is a recurve pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I don't exactly see how this is a recurve pattern. Basically on the Euro the ridge doesn't have enough time to rebuild overhead so instead of stalling, it gets carried East. I don't think it ends up being correct but I can see why it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Basically on the Euro the ridge doesn't have enough time to rebuild overhead so instead of stalling, it gets carried East. I don't think it ends up being correct but I can see why it happens. It's so close to stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I don't exactly see how this is a recurve pattern. No troff in the Mississippi valley, the ridge in southern Canada alone may not be enough to steer it into the coast. Wherever it moves it won't be fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I don't exactly see how this is a recurve pattern. So will the twin 1019 highs hold it snug or will the 1019 high to the west force it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So will the twin 1019 highs hold it snug or will the 1019 high to the west force it out. The important point is that the above pattern almost gurantees a US landfall from the NE or SE for somebody. Alot can change in 240 hours. Don't get me wrong, it is a bizarre setup that would take awhile to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's mostly being driven by the eastern/southern ridge it seems.. drops into the Bahamas area as it tracks along. There is a weakness in there between that and the piece over land. Scenario makes logical sense. Not really quite a pattern that typically causes northeast threats though the west option is certainly still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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