Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Spann > Topper or Bernstein any day of the week. Looks like Erika, if she survives, might not be a fish storm after all. Bit of a flare up of convection this evening, and the dry air ahead of the system doesn't appear as robust as it did when Danny was moving through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 James Spann @spann 42m42 minutes agoHoover, AL Intensity guidance for Erika. Could be a formidable hurricane in 5 days. If it survives the next 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 P007 - 18z GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 P008 wouldn't be terrible either. Gotta get through the next 2.5 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 That would end our boring streak. One step away from being the Bob Chill Special. The model runs for this 98L/Erika have been interesting and consistent in the long range, tho it's not quite like anything we've seen. Sandy would be a poor analog for P007 at the 500mb level. That solution verbatim might not be worth it if your goal is too simply break records. Just sayin'. Either way, it's been a really long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It staying weak now means a better shot of it being west probably. Just a fine line between it falling totally apart next bit. That north of the islands into the Bahamas track can be a nasty one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I suppose the latter part of the track was in your other freehand I forgot about this gem. Some seriously good stuff in this thread. Mythical status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 NHC is hostile and says wouldn't be surprised to see Erika dissipate like Danny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yep. Avila with the warning shot to weenies everywhere. If Erika can hold it's own for the next 2 days then I think we will have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Feels like a coin flip at this point. New flare up over the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 New flare up over the center? That flare up is either right over the LLC or a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 One nice continues flare up of convection near/over the center all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 LOL -- Euro has it making landfall at Miami very early Monday morning, then it just hangs around Florida until Saturday where it meanders back into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 bye florida. They have had a ton of rain the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 erika looking much better this morning than it did yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 bye florida. They have had a ton of rain the last month. Miami and many parts of South Florida are in a drought. The heavy rain and flooding has mostly been in west central Florida around the Tampa area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Miami and many parts of South Florida are in a drought. The heavy rain and flooding has mostly been in west central Florida around the Tampa area. if models are correct that area will get heavy rain also.. bye tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Feels like a coin flip at this point. For posterity, you might not want to hotlink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Lol, I said coin flip, not that Erika was going to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 if models are correct that area will get heavy rain also.. bye tampa. They will be fine. Most flooding in Florida is nuisance flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Brad Panovich on Twitter just posted some analog maps. Floyd is on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Brad Panovich on Twitter just posted some analog maps. Floyd is on there It's nice how analogs always focus on big storms it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 LOL -- Euro has it making landfall at Miami very early Monday morning, then it just hangs around Florida until Saturday where it meanders back into the Gulf. Like Katrina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's nice how analogs always focus on big storms it seems. How many times will Dec 09 and Feb 10 be analogs this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 Like Katrina? lol, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 oh canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'll take the 12z CMC for $1,000 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'm saving that run for the archives. Looks like Sandy is on the ropes this go around. Am I hallucinating or does it stall off Wallops Island for like 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's only there about a day and a half before the run ends but it's not really going anywhere at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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