yoda Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 12z UKIE has Erika in the Bahamas on Sunday... landfall or close to it near Cape Canaveral, FL/Melbourne, FL area on Monday 12z as its moving NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The advertised pattern is definitely more interesting than Danny but that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot yet. Indeed. Position and strength of the Bermuda High will be huge, obvi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 12z UKIE has Erika in the Bahamas on Sunday... landfall or close to it near Cape Canaveral, FL/Melbourne, FL area on Monday 12z as its moving NW We are sailing out of Port Canaveral at approximately 4:30 p.m. on Sunday heading to the Western Caribbean....this could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The advertised pattern is definitely more interesting than Danny but that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot yet. I agree. There is no glaring steering feature in place through the next week+. Ensemble h5 and mslp plots leave the door open for a wide variety of solutions. The only outlier track imo would be an into the gulf track. The slow strengthening is more of a concern than anything else. Can't really worry about impact if the storm never really gets going beyond a weak Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I agree. There is no glaring steering feature in place through the next week+. Ensemble h5 and mslp plots leave the door open for a wide variety of solutions. The only outlier track imo would be an into the gulf track. The slow strengthening is more of a concern than anything else. Can't really worry about impact if the storm never really gets going beyond a weak Cat 1. Yes -- remember you mentioning it a few days ago too. I'm not entirely sold it will even amount to much yet given its appearance thus far and Nino climo but often it's better to get them to wait till they're closer in if you want a big hit on the US. Would be fascinating to get the first Cat3+ strike in 80 million years during a godzilla nino. Shoot we've already reached NOAA's forecast of 0-1 major this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 I agree. There is no glaring steering feature in place through the next week+. Ensemble h5 and mslp plots leave the door open for a wide variety of solutions. The only outlier track imo would be an into the gulf track. The slow strengthening is more of a concern than anything else. Can't really worry about impact if the storm never really gets going beyond a weak Cat 1. a weak cat 1? no. i was specially told to go back to school because i cannot read models that had it at a cat1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I could see a further west/GOM track if this stays really weak, but I agree, clear outlier right now. I want to see if the euro still sees Erika survive the trek at 12z. It'd be funny if it went from bomb to open wave. Nah, don't worry about ops outside of the typical d3-4 window. It's interesting that there's actually a real chance for a US landfall with this one. HP placement and the closed 591dm ridge in the atlantic is pretty well agreed upon with the latest ens runs @ d6+ and so is the broad (albeit weak) ridging in the east half of the conus. I though last night's euro ens were encouraging (assuming a real storm survives the trip through the bahamas). With this kind of patter you would think any decent cane would have it's sights on the coast from n fl - obx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Let the hype train continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Let the hype train continue.... You seem to be driving it...! If you go back about 4 days, GFDL had a very similar storm in a very similar place... for Danny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 You seem to be driving it...! If you go back about 4 days, GFDL had a very similar storm in a very similar place... for Danny.... thank you. posting an awful model that shows a hurricane when both GFS and Euro have nothing is a prime example of hype and being a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Well what does everyone say now with the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 thank you. posting an awful model that shows a hurricane when both GFS and Euro have nothing is a prime example of hype and being a weenie. Or it could be that I just wanted to get a stir out of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Well what does everyone say now with the 12z Euro? time to take it back to the general tropics thread?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Or it could be that I just wanted to get a stir out of you Or you can not go into other subforums with the sole admitted purpose of trolling. Give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The only way to stay vigilant is to keep panicking. Or picnicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 lol euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 euro shows the same thing it shows when we hope it shows a DC snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 euro shows the same thing it shows when we hope it shows a DC snow ...a Boston jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Or you can not go into other subforums with the sole admitted purpose of trolling. Give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Guess DT will be canceling his Hurricane Mode™. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I know we rehash this every year, but I've never really understood the whole rooting for a US landfall by a hurricane thing. I guess those that do have never really lived in hurricane prone areas to have a grasp on the devastation and suffering they cause people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 This caught my eye. At least in Winter storms when the GFS OP track is that much different from the ensembles it usually corrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I know we rehash this every year, but I've never really understood the whole rooting for a US landfall by a hurricane thing. I guess those that do have never really lived in hurricane prone areas to have a grasp on the devastation and suffering they cause people. We don't root for death and destruction. We are weather enthusiasts and we realize that we have no control in the situation, so we embrace whatever Mother nature has in store for us. We study it because it interests us and most of us have felt this fascination for severe weather since early childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Given the system is still basically nothing most of the models are meaningless wrt specifics. Next few days might not bring much clarity either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I know we rehash this every year, but I've never really understood the whole rooting for a US landfall by a hurricane thing. I guess those that do have never really lived in hurricane prone areas to have a grasp on the devastation and suffering they cause people. The only thing I'm rooting for is a major up the bay and left turn at the mouth of the potomac with a 14th St bridge landfall. I'm not rooting for FL/SC/NC etc. But for my hopeful outcome they are simply in the way if the track isn't perfect. So I'll be very bummed if they get hit and we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The only thing I'm rooting for is a major up the bay and left turn at the mouth of the potomac with a 14th St bridge landfall. I'm not rooting for FL/SC/NC etc. But for my hopeful outcome they are simply in the way if the track isn't perfect. So I'll be very bummed if they get hit and we don't. From personal experience with Sandy you're going to want to be at least 75-100 miles North of the center once it reaches that latitude. Getting a completely warm core system North of VA beach is a challenge in of its self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 We don't root for death and destruction. We are weather enthusiasts and we realize that we have no control in the situation, so we embrace whatever Mother nature has in store for us. We study it because it interests us and most of us have felt this fascination for severe weather since early childhood.+1. And what Bob said lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Howard Bernstein @hbwx 5m5 minutes agoWashington, DC NHC track of Erika as of 5 PM Tue 8/25/15. Coming toward SE USA next week? https://www.facebook.com/hbwx1/videos/vb.847677985316662/872906926127101/?type=2&theater … @wusa9 @TenaciousTopper @capitalweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 James Spann @spann 42m42 minutes agoHoover, AL Intensity guidance for Erika. Could be a formidable hurricane in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 If this is a current radar image from the Hurricane Hunters then this thing looks weaker than most cold fronts that move through our area nowadays. ASCAT impressive but perhaps over-estimating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.