mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 A thread specifically for Erika. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 If we get a ridge to our N like some models show this storm will NOT fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 the best images are found on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I'd love to have a storm called Hurricane Fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I'd love to have a storm called Hurricane Fish. one day he will get his due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 the best images are found on twitter the arrows make it more scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Cantore says Texas to Maine needs to watch Erika lol. #weeniehope LOL saw that not too long ago on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 With a ridge to the north, I don't see an I-95 express. Models right now are virtually unamious on a sharp recurve eventually, but boy would that make this storm a lot more interesting and chasing a lot easier can't post it, but euro has Erika getting trapped under that ridge in 10days and just hanging out along the coast of FL/GA/SC as a Cat1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I saw. My general thought is that for an EC strike, a storm needs to hit on first approach. How many storms fake right only to make a sharp turn left. Outside of Sandy, I can't recall any. A storm meandering off the EC without purpose is a storm waiting to get kicked out to sea IMO. Kyle in 2002 (I believe) was crazy. That thing did like 100 loops in the Atlantic before hitting South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 can't post it, but euro has Erika getting trapped under that ridge in 10days and just hanging out along the coast of FL/GA/SC as a Cat1 Cat 1? Thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 ^^ is that the Euro? Cause the one I looked at definitely did NOT have it at 937 at 10days. Only 77kts which is a Cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 ^^ is that the Euro? Cause the one I looked at definitely did NOT have it at 937 at 10days. Only 77kts which is a Cat 1 Yes that is the Euro. I admit that the storm vista version doesn't show the system being this deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Yes that is the Euro. I admit that the storm vista version doesn't show the system being this deep. That's what I thought. Take your hype elsewhere. Like back to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 That's what I thought. Take your hype elsewhere. Like back to NJ. It's still the same model and the same model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 That's what I thought. Take your hype elsewhere. Like back to NJ. IWM has it quite low too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 IWM has it quite low too USA_PRMSL_msl_240.gif It's okay, I will take my hype elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Regardless of hype vs no hype a 240hr prog for a tropical system is likely to be 60mb weaker and 1500 miles away on the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 I saw. My general thought is that for an EC strike, a storm needs to hit on first approach. How many storms fake right only to make a sharp turn left. Outside of Sandy, I can't recall any. A storm meandering off the EC without purpose is a storm waiting to get kicked out to sea IMO. hehe, 1938? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 IWM has it quite low too USA_PRMSL_msl_240.gif can you read that, sir? Weatherbell has it at 942 at 10days, with 77kts. a CATEGORY 1 Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 It's okay, I will take my hype elsewhere please do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 can you read that, sir? Weatherbell has it at 942 at 10days, with 77kts. a CATEGORY 1 Storm. Oh, I see what the issue it. Even the superior Euro can't handle the wind/pressure relationship of a TC, so I'd ignore the 77 kts. At ~940mb, that thing would be much better than a Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Only a couple (like 7 or so) EPS members make a storm out of this. 1 member does bring a 975mb onto Myrtle Beach. No big deal right now. Also I don't buy a solution like the OP Euro has, according to Wx Bell one location off the Souteast coast see's like 45-50 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Oh, I see what the issue it. Even the superior Euro can't handle the wind/pressure relationship of a TC, so I'd ignore the 77 kts. At ~940mb, that thing would be much better than a Cat 1. fair enough. regardless, trying not to hype this thing 10 days out. you know what i mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 fair enough. regardless, trying not to hype this thing 10 days out. you know what i mean? You said that this was a category one storm and I was just pointing out that it was incorrect. That's not hype, it's getting your facts in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 You want to see hype, here is some from one of our own respected mets https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/636161496314171392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I saw. My general thought is that for an EC strike, a storm needs to hit on first approach. How many storms fake right only to make a sharp turn left. Outside of Sandy, I can't recall any. A storm meandering off the EC without purpose is a storm waiting to get kicked out to sea IMO. I think Jeanne did it too, 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 2004. That was a legit hook lol. How was it around here? Jeanne didn't go west though until well after it was inland, after hitting FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I saw. My general thought is that for an EC strike, a storm needs to hit on first approach. How many storms fake right only to make a sharp turn left. Outside of Sandy, I can't recall any. A storm meandering off the EC without purpose is a storm waiting to get kicked out to sea IMO. TS Fay in '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The weather world has lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Ventrice is as close to a hypester met as you'll get. We are here a lot with the euro in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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