pcbjr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Fish? Minnow?Good if so ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Fish? Minnow? Good if so ..... Unicorn according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So about the 18z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_pres_wind_atl_28.png i went on tropical tidbits and I didnt find the 18z to bring the cyclone down to 941 mb but only found like 980mb and couldn't find the one that said high resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Unicorn according to the GFS. Many meanings there, grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Every subtle change in strength, every subtle shift in movement and subsequently, any land interaction really plays into everything WRT Erika as this point. Currently, what kind of state will Erika be in at 24 hours? 48 hours? Right now, the problem is the state of Erika right now. It shouldn't gain a tremendoua amount of poleward motion in this disheveled state. If it's not maintaining deep convection and also some identity, motion will be governed by the low level steering current. Not to mention, more possible land interaction. If Erika gets her act together earlier than anticipated, then a more poleward track than currently being depicted on forecast plots would be expected. With that said, the future after day 3 oa even more uncertain, given the previously mentioned, does Erika get her act together. We all know she'll eventually get to an area more conducive for development after Friday. Erika could easily get torn apart before then, or fight its way through the mess with somw identity. The last caveat is if she's maintaining or strengthening theough the mess between now and Friday, look out. (providing there is a potent circulation aloft IE mid-level circulation), it could hit the fan real quick. Trying to guesswork all the variables right now is like a bird trying to crap on a person's head from 1000 feet up fighting a 30 mph wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Really nice pulse of convection right over the LLC in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So about the 18z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_pres_wind_atl_28.png 18Z GFS at the same hour... just with the southeast zoom on COD at 925mb lots of maxed out colors at 110kts (if you can see between all the barbs), and one could assume that at least some of those winds would be translated down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Really nice pulse of convection right over the LLC in the last 30 minutes. Jack Straw from Wichita I just jumped the watchman, right outside the fence Took his rings, four bucks in change, ain't that heaven sent? We used to play for silver, now we play for life And one's for sport one's for blood at the point of a knife And now the die is shaken, now the die must fall There ain't a winner in the game, he don't go home with all, not with all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So about the 18z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_pres_wind_atl_28.png What's a 50mb difference amongst friends? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_mslp_wind_atl_28.png EDIT: Eh, just realized you were not posting MSLP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Jack Straw from Wichita I just jumped the watchman, right outside the fence Took his rings, four bucks in change, ain't that heaven sent? We used to play for silver, now we play for life And one's for sport one's for blood at the point of a knife And now the die is shaken, now the die must fall There ain't a winner in the game, he don't go home with all, not with all We can share the women, we can share the wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 We can share the women, we can share the wine. https://youtu.be/nekOzuD4bOs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Jack Straw from Wichita I just jumped the watchman, right outside the fence Took his rings, four bucks in change, ain't that heaven sent? We used to play for silver, now we play for life And one's for sport one's for blood at the point of a knife And now the die is shaken, now the die must fall There ain't a winner in the game, he don't go home with all, not with all Might just be my favorite song of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Animated......... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'd like a nice cat 1 here in Myrtle beach but if it gets any stronger, just give me a band of it and keep off shore. Dont need to be stuck at work for 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 yea storms really firing close to the llc now, need this to continue to keep erika relatively healthy as she approaches the worst of the shear thru friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 yea storms really firing close to the llc now, need this to continue to keep erika relatively healthy as she approaches the worst of the shear thru friday. Has the shear relaxed at all? I can't pull up the map on spaghettimodels right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Has the shear relaxed at all? I can't pull up the map on spaghettimodels right now. not really. worst of it is to come north of hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 not really. worst of it is to come north of hispaniola. Gotcha thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 SHIPS is showing some brutal shear coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 esf.png SHIPS is showing some brutal shear coming up Interesting it shows it never dropping below 40KT then after 60 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 SHIPS is showing some brutal shear coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This has (insert yby) written all over it. Also looking for the first obligatory Hugo or Andrew reference to be launched ITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 0z Model Guidance Shifts East Seems to me it is unlikely Erika can survive the shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 If it can hold together as a tropical system and miss Florida, could it have more time to strengthen as it moves up the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Threat is really decreasing for South Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 First call on my Facebook page, and twitter pages as well. Here is the map. I know there are MANY possible solutions, but here is my best forecast as of now. Flame away! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 First call on my Facebook page, and twitter pages as well. Here is the map. I know there are MANY possible solutions, but here is my best forecast as of now. Flame away! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Holy Moley, forgot how good Washington's WV loop was. Dry air shows up perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Not bad, guidance if shifting east but its hard to say what Erika will do since we are not even sure there will be a Erika....watching the radars it seems to me the center is NE of the current forecast track a bit and the "LLC" will cross the very NE Leewards and that jives with the models taking it east.....the real wrench in the works is what does it do once it gets east of Florida ( assuming there is a Erika), is the ridge offshore stronger or weaker further north or south.....and how it impacts Erika will largely depend on how strong she is so there are so many little things that can and will have a huge impact on the how /why/where of that its insane. I don't envy the NHC their job the next 5-7 days assuming she doesn't die. Radar showing the storms with the flare up and its pretty horrible doesn't look tropical much at all but you can see the LLC I think way up near the northern islands, in fact I am not even sure that's it...there should be a LLC somewhere in that loop but UGH http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 0z Model Guidance Shifts East Seems to me it is unlikely Erika can survive the shear Well, if its gonna track like that, i hope it gets shredded apart. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 In the vast majority of cases once a storm gets a easterly componet in it after it turns up the coast it ALMOST ( and I know there are examples of where it does turn back) always keeps that easterly component. This doesn't mean that it wont hit the SE coast it very well could and just this morning a lot of those same models all had south Florida in the bullseye. So who knows what tomorrow will bring... Worst case for us up this way is a that it does pull that rare turn back NW...after it gets as strong as those models have her. I almost think I see the LLC on this shortwave loop right SE of 18N 61W, I mean right at that point just about to cross it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-swir-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.