Brick Tamland Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 If the NHC track is right, seems it would have to hook a right after hitting Florida to hit NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Congrats Yeah that would be pretty typical, but seems less likely than the other solutions at least given the models etc etc etc.....I will say that just about every hurricane/TS that was east of the islands that ends up hitting eastern NC was first modeled/predicted to hit south Florida and then the plots just walk up the coast as the models figure out the turn. That said I am in NO WAY implying that Erika will do that...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Congrats UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12Z GFDL 145 knts 926 MB bigtime curve and OTS track http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082612&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=159 12Z HWRF much more scary for the Carolinas.....944MB but only shows it as 77knts so that's wrong http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082612&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=159 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 LLC now exposed and it looks to be moving a bit more NW than earlier though it was hard to tell where the center was.....looks to me about 16.5N and 58.2W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 LLC now exposed and it looks to be moving a bit more NW than earlier though it was hard to tell where the center was.....looks to me about 16.5N and 58.2W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.html Wouldn't a more NW track lead to a stronger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Wouldn't a more NW track lead to a stronger storm? Maybe, there are a lot of maybe with this system right now...the further NE it goes does increase the likely hood of a further NE land fall and or even a full recurve OTS....its way to early to think like that though since if she doesn't protect her center she will end up dissipating or opening up into a wave.....center really showing up well now Ericka basically a naked swirl.. For what it is worth it looks like Euro keeps her off shore of Florida moving north and the GFS had it just inland moving up the Florida coast, this will cause the NHC much head ache with the 5 pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 That thing might blow up big if it survives the trip. If it hits the very warm,undisturbed waters around the Bahamas/Florida watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The current GFDL (12z) had it getting to 926mb at one point. I'm going to throw this out for now. It eventually hooks away from us all though. I didn't pay very close attention to Danny towards the end. Which model ended up being the best with it? I know the Euro was shearing it out from basically the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Currently Erika is a naked swirl and moving much more NW than WNW at the moment...she would go well east of PR if she doesn't wobble back west some....it seems the models going forward are split between really unorganized weak system into Florida or stronger system wanting to recurve off the SE coast......none of this will matter if she doesn't do something soon to protect her LLC it looks ok on vis loop now but it wouldn't take much for her to go away. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Even though it may not be over the coc, the blob of convection on the visible sattelite , looks to be re firing with some big tops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Even though it may not be over the coc, the blob of convection on the visible sattelite , looks to be re firing with some big tops! It could be possible for a new LLC to reform under the MLC the LLC is way away from the MLC now, it will be interesting to see what NHC says here in a minute Edit: they shifted east a bit and are still on the west side of guidance.......but she looks terrible really need to see it fire off some storms around the center, there are a few firing on the eastern side but not right on the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Still a TD at 45 mph, 1005 pressure at 5pm advisory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Edit: they shifted east a bit and are still on the west side of guidance I'll take east to Europe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Threat is really decreasing for South Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Still a TD at 45 mph, 1005 pressure at 5pm advisory! They are being super duper kind with that IMO,...from NHC disco A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon has not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this morning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but this could be generous. It will be tough for her to survive the next 24 hrs without really having a good Dmax near the center again.....there could be the start of one on the eastern side of the LLC around 16.5N and 58W if it can take off it would be pretty close to the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Threat is really decreasing for South Florida Disagree. One set of model runs doesn't mean that the threat is *really* decreasing. Especially when the area of interest is over a thousand miles away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Disagree. One set of model runs doesn't mean that the threat is *really* decreasing. Especially when the area of interest is over a thousand miles away.. Watch and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Watch and learn. I didn't say you might not be right. Just saying that jumping out to a dramatic conclusion like that after one advisory package, and one set of guidance may not be the smartest idea. Hence why you didn't see the NHC shift the track wide right like a decent amount of 18Z guidance showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Disagree. One set of model runs doesn't mean that the threat is *really* decreasing. Especially when the area of interest is over a thousand miles away.. I dunno usually when they go east they don't come back, but your right its early to let south Florida off the hook. That said it seems the only way this thing gets to S Fl is as a tattered mess.....also this isn't the first model run to suggest the turn up the coast its been on the table for a few days now and whats happening is slowly the models are converging on a consensus for that turn versus a consensus of a track to south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 They are being super duper kind with that IMO,...from NHC disco A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon has not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this morning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but this could be generous. It will be tough for her to survive the next 24 hrs without really having a good Dmax near the center again.....there could be the start of one on the eastern side of the LLC around 16.5N and 58W if it can take off it would be pretty close to the center Yeah, they said on TWC , it's really not a TS anymore and they couldn't find 40 mph winds. They didnt down grade it because they didnt want to have to take down all the watched and warnings and put them back up again if it strengthens. They didnt want people to let their guard down or get confused . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah, they said on TWC , it's really not a TS anymore and they couldn't find 40 mph winds. They didnt down grade it because they didnt want to have to take down all the watched and warnings and put them back up again if it strengthens. They didnt want people to let their guard down or get confused . Yep and its the right call at this point, now if there is no recovery overnight and no good naked swirl in the morning they will drop it IMO....that little cluster of storms to the east of the LLC is looking pretty good its already almost dark there so DMAX should be setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I didn't say you might not be right. Just saying that jumping out to a dramatic conclusion like that after one advisory package, and one set of guidance may not be the smartest idea. Hence why you didn't see the NHC shift the track wide right like a decent amount of 18Z guidance showed. Its game over for S Fla. Only a matter of time before the next GFS run comes in and goes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Oh boy at the GFS When is the shear forecast to lessen? Is their a good free site to view shear and other related tropical maps? Map posted on the main thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Oh boy at the GFS When is the shear forecast to lessen? Is their a good free site to view shear and other related tropical maps? Map posted on the main thread.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ go to forecast models>hurricane> and then choose either the HWRF-P or GFDL-P>Upper Dynamics> 200-850mb shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Its game over for S Fla. Only a matter of time before the next GFS run comes in and goes east. Great! I hope this does miss wide right....not sure we (SE) will be so lucky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Its game over for S Fla. Only a matter of time before the next GFS run comes in and goes east. One run of the GFS does not hold any more weight as any one run of any other model really. Not trying to say that S. FL is going to get a direct hit, just saying its definitely not game over for them. Interests/people in S. FL should definitely still pay attention to this system with it being over a thousand miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 what a stupid model. The GFS makes some stupid loopy loop off the carolinas and never makes landfall like it's taunting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 NAVGEM day 6 hits MYR and is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So about the 18z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082618/gfs_pres_wind_atl_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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