SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 This year is a special unprecedented case in many regards. Particularly the extent of the 30C isotherm. In hindsight, you may have wanted Erika to fade away early on. OHC Values are almost off the scales near FL. If Erica makes it past Puerto Rico, negating any shear or dry air the system will rapidly intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 If it stays on this track, it is going to have to make a heck of a sharp turn to miss the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 If it stays on this track, it is going to have to make a heck of a sharp turn to miss the US. FB_IMG_1440550772083.jpg And that's just not going to happen with the type of steering current we will have in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The fact that none of the ECM and GFS ensembles have Erika doing much of anything is pretty telling... More likely than not we are looking at a weak system. I also think this post is extremely telling to the future of Ericka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Lots of disagreement between mets about the future of Ericka, and lots of disagreement between models. CMC/UKMET/GFS/EURO and their ensembles all pretty much go with the idea of a weak system by the time it gets close to the U.S... if not a weak, open wave. The majority of high-res and hurricane models disagree with the global models to varying degrees, with some thinking the possibility of a major-hurricane, to a hurricane, to a high-end tropical storm. Interested in what the 12NAM will have to say... as the system will be moving into its domain soon at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 More likely than not we are looking at a weak system. I also think this post is extremely telling to the future of Ericka. majority of the ens. ram it into hisp., while the models showing deepening dont show it until the storm passes north of hisp. interaction with the island is the big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I still say the "pattern" should fit some take off of Erika as it approaches the Bahamas. Now...if this is super weak and falling apart, then forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 majority of the ens. ram it into hisp., while the models showing deepening dont show it until the storm passes north of hisp. interaction with the island is the big difference. +10. 18Z HWRF shows this very very well. It shows a pretty meager and weak system until it passes just to the north of Hispaniola, then it bombs into a 100mph hurricane as it gets into ideal rapid-strengthening conditions off the coast of FL, and over the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 +10. 18Z HWRF shows this very very well. It shows a pretty meager and weak system until it passes just to the north of Hispaniola, then it bombs into a 100mph hurricane as it gets into ideal rapid-strengthening conditions off the coast of FL, and over the Bahamas. 00z tracks north of hisp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I would agree with NHC...this could just wind down and dissipate in the next 24-48 hours. **IF** it can hang in there, might be better by the Bahamas...Thats a big if right now if it makes it that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks like a nice convection flare up this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 She does look better this AM for sure and the latest flare up is almost over the center so thats a big plus.....IMO track wise the more organized and stronger she gets now should increase the threat of a farther north landfall or eventual recurve since a stronger Erika should track on the northern side of guidance versus the weaker version which stays more westward. There is still up to 20 knts of shear in front of her she has to cross though according to the latest shear maps and as nice as the current flare up is it might not last for long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I gotta say in just the last few hrs Erika has really put together a nice bit of organization. how this plays out will be why I love the weather. You can run the RBTOP loop and see the tops being blown off of the storms in the southern and central Leewards but its much less pronounced in the NE islands.....IF Erika stay more westward over the next 24 then she will likely get more shear and therefore stay weaker thus more likely to stay on a more westerly heading, and the south/central Florida landfall looks pretty likely given that scenario. If she can get more north then she might not have as much or as long to deal with the shear and be able to intensify faster thus making a more northerly track likely and the Carolinas or even a recurve would be on the table. If the center moves south under the heaviest storms she has now that would also suggest more southerly track, in fact that would increase the chance of hitting the Greater Antilles and well that would just be bad all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 latest hwrf keeps erika weak thru 72 hrs, then ramps it o a 977mb cane off the south fl coast by 00z monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 If she survives till Thursday night, Then everything conducive to ramping her up will be present. Just has to avoid the 10,000 ft peaks of Hispanola. Agree with DownEast. Watch the steering flow at 40,000 feet. That will indicate her journey, espeacilly if she gets stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It looks like the dry air as advected out of Erica and shear is weakening in magnitude with current shear being 19kt. Erica also appears to have a well defined center of circulation. The Bahamas have little to no shear, no dry air, and off the charts OHC as of now. If conditions stay the same, then this will be a serious storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 storms finally popping over the coc now. hope it can keep it up today with shear lessening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks to be moving due west right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks to be moving due west right now! Center moved .8 W and .1 N between 5am and 8am so its pretty close to due west, but the center is also north of the main convection blob and it will be interesting to see if it can either wrap storms around the center and if so cause it to move more WNW/NW or does the center move in under the convection thus giving it a more W direction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I thought more people would be following this. Looks like we might have an actual hurricane hitting the US. NHC has it heading to southern Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Miss Piggy looked like she was chasing Kermit around trying to find the center earlier. Things a mess above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Here's a couple of maps I found (for historical comparison): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I thought more people would be following this. Looks like we might have an actual hurricane hitting the US. NHC has it heading to southern Florida. The modeling and intensity forecasts are a bit chaotic right now. We need to wait and see what happens with the land interaction before we can begin to get really interested. I wouldn't worry too much about the shear and dry air around as much as the track/land interaction. Once it gets closer to the coast, it's open to rapidly intensify. With that said, this is definitely a US landfall threat, and Florida is the likely spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Miss Piggy looked like she was chasing Kermit around trying to find the center earlier. Things a mess above 850mb. Center has become more consolidated above 850 actually.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Erika is still not vertically stacked with the 500mb vorticity center off to the south of the 850 vort center so there is still a lot of organization to be done. With the persistence of convection to the south we need to watch for the center to either nudge or reform to the south. This would throw a huge wrench in the future of the storm since any deviation south brings Hispaniola more into play. Center relocations have made for many busted track and intensity forecast especially with disorganized systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Erika is still not vertically stacked with the 500mb vorticity center off to the south of the 850 vort center so there is still a lot of organization to be done. With the persistence of convection to the south we need to watch for the center to either nudge or reform to the south. This would throw a huge wrench in the future of the storm since any deviation south brings Hispaniola more into play. Center relocations have made for many busted track and intensity forecast especially with disorganized systems. Still alot of work to be done, but Erica is going in the right direction.... Once the shear relaxes, convection will fill in to the Northern quadrants . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Here is what I mean, and why I think the GFS is lost with how strong this could get over the Bahamas. The shear forecasts, from its own product show me an upper level anticylone (i.e. a pretty good chance its got lower shear and good ventilation) so it can/should strengthen more than what this model shows. The GFS could end up being right, and kudos to it, but until I see the EURO and other Hurricane geared models start showing a consistant weak sheared mess...I am discounting it for the most part. There is still some weight you have to give to the GFS, but at this point it has to be VERY low. http://imageshack.com/a/img540/7796/v5COOn.png http://imageshack.com/a/img538/2887/N8EAvD.png http://imageshack.com/a/img673/118/HeIGJT.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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