DopplerWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 18z intensity...ho hum thru 96 hrs or so. not liking how the models keep erika so weak for so long. we saw what happened when danny was beat down by shear and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I'm not quite sure why FFC says Erika make impact us. Every map ive seen shows it staying well east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I'm not quite sure why FFC says Erika make impact us. Every map ive seen shows it staying well east of us. no. gfs ensembles are all over the fl/ga/sc coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 no. gfs ensembles are all over the fl/ga/sc coast. Yeah that would suggest a close call and probably recurve of some sort. I was much more interested when the euro was showing the big block off New England. Florida might see some action if the GFS ensembles are close but the rest of the SE would likely see nothing but big swell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 was it that bad? It's only the worst or second worst natural disaster in metrolina history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 It's only the worst or second worst natural disaster in metrolina history Was that Hugo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Yeah, hugo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I was only 6 at the time, but I still remember getting woken up and brought to the middle of the house with blankets when Hugo came through. Wasn't nearly as bad as what Charlotte got though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Was that Hugo? Hugo was Charlotte's bad storm and Fran was Raleigh's. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19960906/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I was looking at a rainfall map from Hugo and it looks like Raleigh got practically nothing. You would think being on the east and north side of the track Raleigh would have been in a favorable position for a lot of rain. Even Charlotte didn't get a ton of rain. I guess the main impact with Hugo for inland areas was the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Yeah, hugo Was in Mt. Pleasant 1 miles inland, evacuated off of IOP. It was the scariest thing I've ever been through. It's going to be interesting where the center consolidates, recon finding multiple centers with height. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:23Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015 Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 19:27:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°32'N 52°23'W (15.5333N 52.3833W) C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,468m (4,816ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 31kts (From the ENE at ~ 35.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NW (312°) from the flight level center at 19:02:00Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) which was observed 111 nautical miles (128 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 20:12:10Z Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 325° at 8kts (From the NW at 9mph) Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 19:57:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Patriotic hurricane hunter flight path today. Can't say I've seen one quite like that before... WNCN Weather Wes Hohenstein 7 mins · Edited · HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT investigating Tropical Storm Erika this afternoon. Spent several hours gathering data for forecast models that will help going forward. Storm slightly weaker today. Here is the flight path! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Where Erika is strength/track wise in the next 48 hrs will likely tell much of the tale as she enters into less favorable environment. Would I bank on her being a Cane threatening the US in 120 hrs? Not at all. At some point though does it become a bit of a numbers game and you start to wonder when one finds it's way through the net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Patriotic hurricane hunter flight path today. Can't say I've seen one quite like that before.. I noticed from the recon page they were flying a SALEX research mission studying the SAL layer around her. Maybe thats the flight path they use to see how it interacts with the formation of the cyclone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Doesn't a weaker storm get less of a pull from fronts and troughs? Couldn't it just stay weak and brush the islands and then explode to the east of FL? Stronger systems want to go north torwards the pole , correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Yeah, for this to hit the sc coast it should stay weak to avoid being pulled north. But too weak and it skirts south Florida. Need a weak storm to get mild strength closer to the coast to not go flat or pull hard north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 New weather post with track and all, will have a Facebook live video starting at 8:30 if yall want to check it out. I agree with wxman...this is going to be a weak wave or maybe a cat 2 as it approaches. More on my facebook page and twitter pages, if yall want to check it out. Facebook live at 8:30 E Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Looks like a Titusville/Jax skimmer for now - but let's all wait 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 a beautiful track. like turtle said on the main board, this is the perfect track for a big cane off fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I was looking at a rainfall map from Hugo and it looks like Raleigh got practically nothing. You would think being on the east and north side of the track Raleigh would have been in a favorable position for a lot of rain. Even Charlotte didn't get a ton of rain. I guess the main impact with Hugo for inland areas was the wind.It was a quick mover and fairly compact storm. It's forward speed was about 25mph, iirc! The eye went almost over mby and I probably got 1-1.5 inches of rain at the most! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Basically just weather porn, but the 18z GFDL really loves Erika's prospects. Shows a 140mph cat-4 over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida. Of course this solution would be catastrophic, but its still not *entirely* out of the realm of possibility by any means given the the highly conducive conditions that will be in place over/near the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola *if* Erika is able to make the trek over the islands and through the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Basically just weather porn, but the GFDL really loves Erika's prospects. Shows a 140mph cat-4 over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida. Of course this solution would be catastrophic, but its still not *entirely* out of the realm of possibility by any means given the the highly conducive conditions that will be in place over/near the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola *if* Erika is able to make the trek over the islands and through the dry air.If Erika makes it into the Bahamas in tact it's bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Basically just weather porn, but the GFDL really loves Erika's prospects. Shows a 140mph cat-4 over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida. Of course this solution would be catastrophic, but its still not *entirely* out of the realm of possibility by any means given the the highly conducive conditions that will be in place over/near the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola *if* Erika is able to make the trek over the islands and through the dry air. also keep in mind it doesnt bomb out until it passes hisp to the north, so a steady ts over the next 72hrs is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 If Erika makes it into the Bahamas in tact it's bombs away. also keep in mind it doesnt bomb out until it passes hisp to the north, so a steady ts over the next 72hrs is to be expected. 1. I agree... Not just because of the GFDL and HWRF runs... but just in general conditions are likely to be next to ideal for tropical systems... 30C sfc-water temps, next to no shear, and no real contention from any dry air. 2. Yep, it has to overcome quite a few things, meteorologically and geographically, to even reach this point. Lastly, any one noticed what the 18Z GFS did/does with Erika? basically keeps it near stationary in the EGOM for several days, and even strengthens it to become a low-end tropical storm again, before a weak H5 trof sweeps it east across FL and out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 What page are you viewing these models at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 What page are you viewing these models at? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 If Erika makes it into the Bahamas in tact it's bombs away. Tons of ocean heat content in that region, undisturbed by the lack of tropical activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Tons of ocean heat content in that region, undisturbed by the lack of tropical activity.Hard pressed to remember an organized storm that didn't strengthen in that region en route to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Hard pressed to remember an organized storm that didn't strengthen in that region en route to Florida. This year is a special unprecedented case in many regards. Particularly the extent of the 30C isotherm. In hindsight, you may have wanted Erika to fade away early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 New video update on my thoughts of Erika. Check it out if you want. Thanks! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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