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Erika 2015


jburns

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Maybe if it keeps going further west it can get more into the Gulf and blow up again.

From what I've been hearing the Gulf of Mexico has a lot of wind shear over it and is not very conducive to any strengthening right now either. But wouldn't it be a hoot to go from where Erika is right now to a cat 5 in 12 hours unexpectedly.

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From what I've been hearing the Gulf of Mexico has a lot of wind shear over it and is not very conducive to any strengthening right now either. But wouldn't it be a hoot to go from where Erika is right now to a cat 5 in 12 hours unexpectedly.

That is correct. Shear on the order of 30-40kts would tear anything left of Erika to shreds.

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Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, indicate that Erika has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and South Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.

The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches - with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible - across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning on Sunday.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida beginning on Sunday.

This is the last advisory on this system by NHC unless regeneration occurs. Additional information can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service at www.weather.gov.

 

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Shouldn't the title of this thread be renamed " remnants of Erika " ?

Tread lightly :)  Sometimes a td can be much worse than a hurricane....they might not be done until they are done, and even then they might not be done, if they get cut off.  Alberto in 94 is still the boogie man around here :)  But if you want rain a cut off td is the way to go!!  T

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