mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It looks to me like the trough or low or whatever it will be around the gulf and MS/AL as the storm or remnants or whatever is left of Erika, should get picked up and kicked into the SE! The local weather guy had a good animation and showed some cool water vapor stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This thing is going to end up in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Might have to worry more about it producing tornadoes and severe storms inland than it being a tropical storm.or hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I swear, the biggest blob of convection is moving SW! I realize that's not the coc, but this thing is a complete cluster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Might have to worry more about it producing tornadoes and severe storms inland than it being a tropical storm.or hurricane.If it's a weak , hot mess, like being depicted, there won't be any tornado issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 ... and the beat goes on ... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml watch that little red dot swing south of the DR .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This thing is going to end up in the Gulf. Where the water temps are like a freaking sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Pretty telling... Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropicalstorm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typicaltimelines, we have elected to wait until we see what's left ofErika after it passes Hispaniola. There is a significant chancethat no watches or warnings for Florida will be required.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/2100Z 17.9N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.3N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 22.7N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1800Z 24.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 29.0N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 We're getting plenty of rain down here without that pesky little storm anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Now there is a paranoid with vision! It looks like it wants to have a chance to give me rain.....now I've had a lot of rain this summer, but I'd be thrilled to have lots more. Can't get enough rain, as long as you're on high ground...or until the high ground starts to look like low ground, lol. T Tony! To the bolded.....yay!! mby hasn't been that lucky We're getting plenty of rain down here without that pesky little storm anyway! Whoop whoop!! It looks like I won't be having brunch in MYB with Erika this next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Well, atleast this was good practice for winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Tony! To the bolded.....yay!! mby hasn't been that lucky Whoop whoop!! It looks like I won't be having brunch in MYB with Erika this next week I know darlin', and I feel for you Robert was telling me how bad it was his way, and I for once was getting regular rain, and in big ammounts. Felt weird to be the lucky one for a change, but I'll take it. In your case, it's those danged portals you have to deal with, but then when they shut off you get big snow, so I guess, you'll take that, lol. Something tells me this storm will hook inland in such a way as to get a lot of us well....and if it isn't this one, then the one after the one after the one that scares CR, lol. The one bad note here is the mosquito hoards. It's like Siberia here..clouds of mozzies from dawn to dawn, I have never seen it so bad, never in my whole life. Of course, when I was a kid we had ddt. What I wouldn't give for a ddt cloud about now...really, it's that bad...squared. They have become immune to Off, and Cutter...in fact they roll in it, then dance before they bite. Then cut the blood with more deet!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I know darlin', and I feel for you Robert was telling me how bad it was his way, and I for once was getting regular rain, and in big ammounts. Felt weird to be the lucky one for a change, but I'll take it. In your case, it's those danged portals you have to deal with, but then when they shut off you get big snow, so I guess, you'll take that, lol. Something tells me this storm will hook inland in such a way as to get a lot of us well....and if it isn't this one, then the one after the one after the one that scares CR, lol. The one bad note here is the mosquito hoards. It's like Siberia here..clouds of mozzies from dawn to dawn, I have never seen it so bad, never in my whole life. Of course, when I was a kid we had ddt. What I wouldn't give for a ddt cloud about now...really, it's that bad...squared. They have become immune to Off, and Cutter...in fact they roll in it, then dance before they bite. Then cut the blood with more deet!! Tony Get some mesquito plants ( citronella) and put about 10 in a circle around you to where they almost touch and enjoy the outdoors in your tiny circle of protection !? Or build a smokey campfire, I hear they don't like smoke!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlantaThrasher Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Is it just me, or is Erika looking slightly better? I like the new convection that's showing up. I'm looking forward to seeing what it looks like tomorrow, and I'm hoping it brings some rain up here into NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Strange little girl ... NWS @ 11:00 has her still a storm but much further west into the Gulf ....... ?????????? Compare: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Strange little girl ... NWS @ 11:00 has her still a storm but much further west into the Gulf ....... ?????????? 025006W5_NL_sm.gif About that state of emergency..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/avn-animated.gif she's trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/avn-animated.gif she's trying Say what you want, the land interaction helped shed that annoying ML vortex. It's in an area of lessening shear and will be back over water soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Say what you want, the land interaction helped shed that annoying ML vortex. It's in an area of lessening shear and will be back over water soon. like i said - she's trying .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Is it seriously going to take 3 days to go from Key West to the GA/FL border ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 like i said - she's trying .... She's a fighter, I thought for sure it was toast today. Maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 She's a fighter, I thought for sure it was toast today. Maybe tomorrow.If the actual track is slightly further west and clears Cuba somewhat intact, if it's off the west coast of FL, without interacting with land on it's journey N, could possibly get some decent development!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This thing's going to end up making landfall in New Orleams at this rate of a westward forecast shift. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Say what you want, the land interaction helped shed that annoying ML vortex. It's in an area of lessening shear and will be back over water soon. And that water is hot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Tracking Erika Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Erika looks to have 3 days in the GOM to strengthen after she attempts to navigate cuba. No guess as to whether or not there is anything left after Cuba, but 3 days in jacuzzi water certainly has potential written all over it. She's resiliant! I just need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Erika looks to have 3 days in the GOM to strengthen after she attempts to navigate cuba. No guess as to whether or not there is anything left after Cuba, but 3 days in jacuzzi water certainly has potential written all over it. She's resiliant! I just need the rain. To be honest after looking at the first visible satellite pictures this morning unless I'm not seeing it I'm not even sure there is even a closed circulation left. It's looking very very ragged. So there may not be anything left of the storm and even if there is from what I understand the weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are not overly conducive for development there either even if it does survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 IMHO, she's dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was relocated near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Sunday. On the forecast track Erika or its remnants will continue to move near or over portions of eastern Cuba today and move near central Cuba tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Surface observations from Cuba and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Erika is degenerating to a trough of low pressure. If subsequent data confirm this, advisories will be discontinued later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 IMHO, she's dead. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Surface observations from Cuba and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Erika is degenerating to a trough of low pressure. If subsequent data confirm this, advisories will be discontinued later this morning. Per 8 am update looks like the NHC is agreeing with you and with what I said above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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