isohume Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This should be in banter. But it's a weather board. All I said was it looks like it is turning out to be a dud for the east coast. Not a big deal. You are making it a bigger deal than it needs to be. I'm just addressing your history I've noticed is all. Carry on...sry for the off topic folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Of course, there is still room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If she doesn't turn sharply NW by say 70-75W then the chances of it affecting the SE coastline north of Florida wit ha direct landfall go way down....and a turn there will put her right over the main part of Hispaniola but she is so ragged it most likely wont matter much..... I think it would help her a lot if the southern convective blob went away, its almost like the northern center is rooted to it and that's keeping it from being able to get moving NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 El nino 2 cape verde storms 0. This will end up being another Fay or something looks like crap and its literally about to run into a big wall over Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think it's about time to read Erika last rights. Despite Erika continuing to produce deep convection the shear remains strong, well modeled by the SHIPS model for days and she will soon be encountering the higher peaks of Hispaniola. I do think some entity of Erika does survive into the Bahamas but a majority of what is left should be absorbed into the mountains. Whatever is left should give South Florida some beneficial rains. Erika surviving was very dependent on passing Northeast of Puerto Rico which didn't happen, and then it needed to miss Hispaniola which looks like another fail, and then it will need to regenerate in the Bahamas and 95% of the guidance has backed off that from happening, so yeah, things look pretty awful at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like it's time for a hail mary. Only hope is that the northern end of the blow up keeps getting stronger and the southern end goes away. Erika needs to head north in a hurry to have a chance to be anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I mean one you enjoy. +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 State of Emergency declared for FL. Just because Erika won't be the hurricane or of the intensity models were predicting doesn't mean it wont have a significant impact. Flooding in FL is going to be a huge deal as some models just show the storm lingering around for long time. There is also the tornado threat that usually comes with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 She keeps surprising with the southerly track. And still has westward movement this morning. Thoughts on Erika crossing south of the keys and making into the GOM? Cone includes a few model runs that show it. I just can't ignore the water temps in front of her and the GOM is a hot tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Even further west with the track. Before long it's going to be in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It would really have to thread the needle for the center to stay over Florida as it travels north. This would be the best case in terms of wind damage. I'm not sure about flood damage though? I have a hard time believing that it won't find some warm water somewhere to keep it going a little longer. I'll take some rain if it comes this way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I wonder if it can hold together and does get to the Gulf if it would strengthen to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 To my untrained eye this is where the center (or what is left of it) is at. Still appears to be moving due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Not quite Fay in 2008 but it's getting closer. Through Hispaniola,Cuba,then into Naples,Fla.Did the loop de loop and died out over the southeast and I ended up with 6.44'' inches of rain. You don't need a super strong storm to get a pile or rain,need a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's going to run dead through the entire length of Cuba at this point. What another turd of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's going to run dead through the entire length of Cuba at this point. What another turd of a storm.Turd Ferguson ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's going to run dead through the entire length of Cuba at this point. What another turd of a storm. A steaming pile of rotating moistness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 At this point it will just keep heading west.......it has refused to have any northward component sense yesterday. In fact I think there is barely any "Westerly" winds on the southern portion of the "circulation." Outside of the apparent Eddie south of Hispanola right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Haha so you are a hurricane weenie too. This was good You guys should get a hobby. I think it's more of an inexplicable addiction rather than a hobby I do find it interesting that the NHC has been showing how their cone of uncertainty maps are tighter now than they were 10 years ago with Katrina...looks like they needed the bigger cone with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This one is just setting up the one behind the one behind the one that will get us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This one is just setting up the one behind the one behind the one that will get us.don't get brick excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eswaggins Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I do enjoy it. I enjoy playing basketball, too, but sometimes I still lose. Haha, Good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 don't get brick excited. Lol when he sees the next cone headed for Wake Forrest, we'll start all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If it survives or not, anymore northward propegation with the convection could be a big deal for the folks in Hispaniola. Already has a history of being a prolific distributor of sky juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This one is just setting up the one behind the one behind the one that will get us. It never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like it has the potential to be a good rain producer here if it keeps on shifting west. Hell, it'll be in the Gulf if it goes a bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 From Brad Panovich's Twitter page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like if it stays Westerly, it may miss Puerto Rico ! Looks like half the tracks now take it up through FL and would probably be a drought buster! The other group has it going into the gulf and torwards TX, if it doesn't turn. We need that moisture in the SE, somehow someway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This one is just setting up the one behind the one behind the one that will get us. Now there is a paranoid with vision! It looks like it wants to have a chance to give me rain.....now I've had a lot of rain this summer, but I'd be thrilled to have lots more. Can't get enough rain, as long as you're on high ground...or until the high ground starts to look like low ground, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like if it stays Westerly, it may miss Puerto Rico ! Looks like half the tracks now take it up through FL and would probably be a drought buster! The other group has it going into the gulf and torwards TX, if it doesn't turn. We need that moisture in the SE, somehow someway! Just yesterday the FL folks were freaking out this would miss them to the east and now it may miss them to the west. Looks fairly terrible now anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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