superjames1992 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It would be crazy to see one here. We haven't had landfall of anything higher than cat 2 in Georgia in more than a century, and even those are few. I think the last category 3 to hit the Georgia coastline was in like 1898 or something like that. A long, long time. I hope people wouldn't be too complacent. Even the last category 2 to hit our coastline was 1979 I think, well out of the memory of a lot of people (and many weren't even born yet). That sort of length of time can make people cocky and careless. It's exceedingly rare for major hurricanes to hit anywhere from about Ft. Lauderdale all the way up to South Carolina. I guess it is because of the way the coast is slanted and the prevailing winds and Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Any comparison to Hugo is laughable. I don't know why the rest of us even bother posting. MariettaWx has it all figured out and knows exactly what will happen and what has happened with every weather event. Thanks for keeping us informed via your omniscience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I don't know why the rest of us even bother posting. MariettaWx has it all figured out and knows exactly what will happen and what has happened with every weather event. Thanks for keeping us informed via your omniscience. Why woukd you and the others in the main thread bring up Hugo? It is as laughable as the folks who brought up Andrew yesterday. Please enlighten me. I guess I struck a neve, but your post still makes no logical sense based on my commentary. You're entitled to think what you like and the rest of us are as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's still there... The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and itappears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a largergyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croixproducing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past fewhours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initialposition is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poororganization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was ableto measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeastof the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at thesurface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The centralpressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika isnot strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensityduring the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will bemoving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feelthe effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-levelflow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, ithas the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is veryclose to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erikashould begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the nextseveral hours around the periphery of the western Atlanticsubtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on thesouthwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to thenorthwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the trackguidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show atropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days andmoving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during thelatter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually highuncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given thatthe cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects ofland for this to occur.The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to bevery heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islandstonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It's still there... The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and itappears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a largergyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croixproducing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past fewhours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initialposition is based on a mean center of circulation. This is the reason why tropical systems like Erika give me migraines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This is the reason why tropical systems like Erika give me migraines. Don't trust the 11PM advisory. Whenever a Meteorologist says "swirls", they discredit themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The 00z NAVGEM is pretty wild. It brings the storm up along the FL coast slowly before bringing it ashore near ILM late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 West shift/ weak mess continues with overnight model runs! We better look for drought relief somewhere else! Some even have this going to the TX / LA border ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If you don't like Atlantic hurricanes, El Niño is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 If you don't like Atlantic hurricanes, El Niño is your friend. El Nino is doing it's thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 ECMWF never latched on to the idea of developing Erika Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I'll take Vortices for $300, Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 (1) Why woukd you and the others in the main thread bring up Hugo? It is as laughable as the folks who brought up Andrew yesterday. Please enlighten me. (2) I guess I struck a neve, but your post still makes no logical sense based on my commentary. You're entitled to think what you like and the rest of us are as well. (1) I brought up Hugo, because the track of Erika on the 18Z GFS, to which I was referring, was basically the exact same as that of Hugo. It would bring lots of rain to drought-stricken areas, if that same track verified. Nowhere did I compare their categories, their wind speeds, their surge, or anything else. The tracks were the same. Therefore, the tracks are comparable. (2) And that's the whole point isn't it? That appears to be your goal in these threads now. I used to enjoy reading your posts, MariettaWx, but you've changed a lot in the past couple years. Your responses to other members on this board are increasingly dismissive, combative, and bullying. That may be just fine in PR, but it has no place here in the SE forum. What happened to respect and enjoying friendly conversation with others, even when you disagree with them? I have no issue with good-natured ribbing, as in Bud's "Let me Google that for you" post made in response to one of my questions yesterday. I can take it, and even laugh at myself. But that's not the spirit that you have been operating in lately. Why the change? Why are you so bitter these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 (1) I brought up Hugo, because the track of Erika on the 18Z GFS, to which I was referring, was basically the exact same as that of Hugo. It would bring lots of rain to drought-stricken areas, if that same track verified. Nowhere did I compare their categories, their wind speeds, their surge, or anything else. The tracks were the same. Therefore, the tracks are comparable. (2) And that's the whole point isn't it? That appears to be your goal in these threads now. I used to enjoy reading your posts, MariettaWx, but you've changed a lot in the past couple years. Your responses to other members on this board are increasingly dismissive, combative, and bullying. That may be just fine in PR, but it has no place here in the SE forum. What happened to respect and enjoying friendly conversation with others, even when you disagree with them? I have no issue with good-natured ribbing, as in Bud's "Let me Google that for you" post made in response to one of my questions yesterday. I can take it, and even laugh at myself. But that's not the spirit that you have been operating in lately. Why the change? Why are you so bitter these days? I apologize for coming across as an ass. I'll try to tone things down a bit in future posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 68.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the north and east of the center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently approaching Erika. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I apologize for coming across as an ass. I'll try to tone things down a bit in future posts. Thank you, man. I was also a little over-the-top with my omniscience comment last night. Please accept my apologies. And, please don't misunderstand that I want you to always think the way that I do or that anyone else does. I'm not advocating that the SE forum become an echo chamber for the dominant point of view on any issue. Your different opinions and perspectives on potential snowstorms, hurricanes, or any other weather-related phenomena are quite welcome and appreciated. My post above was solely about the manner in which you voice those disagreements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Can't believe how much the projected track has changed since yesterday. Not even going to go up the east coast now. What a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Can't believe how much the projected track has changed since yesterday. Not even going to go up the east coast now. What a dud. Haha so you are a hurricane weenie too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Haha so you are a hurricane weenie too. I just wanted something interesting to follow for a change. The weather has been boring here since March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 You guys should get a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 You guys should get a hobby. I thought this was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I thought this was one. I mean one you enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I mean one you enjoy. I do enjoy it. I enjoy playing basketball, too, but sometimes I still lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I do enjoy it. I enjoy playing basketball, too, but sometimes I still lose. Seems to me you guys spend the majority of the time bitching about something. Maybe it's just when I check in tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Seems to me you guys spend the majority of the time bitching about something. Maybe it's just when I check in tho. Well, that's part of the deal. People are just itching for something exciting to follow for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I mean one you enjoy. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Well, that's part of the deal. People are just itching for something exciting to follow for a change. You do realize climitologically sigfnt wx events are not the norm and are in fact outliers, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Back on topic: While I admit that I am a total novice at this stuff I truly enjoy reading and learning from these forums. Given its current position and direction doesn't the official track forecast still look a little too far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 You do realize climitologically sigfnt wx events are not the norm and are in fact outliers, right? This should be in banter. But it's a weather board. All I said was it looks like it is turning out to be a dud for the east coast. Not a big deal. You are making it a bigger deal than it needs to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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