NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 @ 2:24, Closed Low in gulf and Bermuda High... sound familiar? I still remember that one. That thing was a beast for sure, even well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Just crazy how east the NHC track went and how far back west it has gone in just 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I still remember that one. That thing was a beast for sure, even well inland. Yes and everyone underestimated the effect from the gulf stream... I think a strong cat 2 or weak cat 3 is reasonable. I don't see how this doesn't hit land. Same deal as hugo was a week out, florida to the carolinas in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Yeah, it really does seem rare for an east coast storm to trend east then go back west. But then again, this storm has been more difficult to track than the average storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 My bad. I saw the 8:00 PM track from the NHC, but only saw the one out to 2 PM Sunday. Still has it headed up the East coast after that. But does look a little bit further west. Still, their track has shifted a lot in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The key to me is if she's still a breathing TS beyond Hispanolia how much intensification can happen in the southern Bahamas. NHC showing Ekika essentially staying a TS through the entire area before brushing Fla. That's not a rapid intensification by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 And possibly alot more if heaven forbid, she stalls out over SC. The Weather Channel mentioned that possibility earlier today. All bets would be off if it stalled in the right place to direct major upslope flow into the mountains. That would a disaster for many if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I still remember that one. That thing was a beast for sure, even well inland. Hugo caused major damage well inland since it was moving so fast. It did not have the time to weaken as much as they usually do. Thankfully my area ended up just west of the worst of it. The forecast 6 hours earlier i think had been for it to move closer to the GSP metro, but it turned and went to the Charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Hugo caused major damage well inland since it was moving so fast. It did not have the time to weaken as much as they usually do. Thankfully my area ended up just west of the worst of it. The forecast 6 hours earlier i think had been for it to move closer to the GSP metro, but it turned and went to the Charlotte area. My area got absolutely blasted, while 15 miles to the west had winds barely over TS force in gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 All bets would be off if it stalled in the right place to direct major upslope flow into the mountains. That would a disaster for many if that happened. That would be absolutely catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Coming through FL and will dissect GA as a weak TS. Bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 And the models bring it back west to Florida again. The back and forth dance continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Might not be that great of a drought buster, if it takes that track it will be a half a cane with the bulk of the storms right along the coast and offshore.....in fact I doubt it would be a cane at all more likely a ragged TS...... I respectfully disagree, downeastnc. That's basically the same track Hugo took and we got torrential rain in the western part of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Any comparison to Hugo is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Coming through FL and will dissect GA as a weak TS. Bet.Whatever it takes to get me rain! I don't want it out to sea or into MS! I'll bet 10:1 that it hits between Miami and Jacksonville , as a cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 My area got absolutely blasted, while 15 miles to the west had winds barely over TS force in gusts. We were close here. The eastern parts of Union county near Lockhart and a good bit of Cherokee county just to my north were hit fairly hard. And of course Chester, Fairfield and York counties were pounded. Winds were mostly in the 40-50 mph range here with a few higher gusts. The amount of rain we got was not what I expected, but that was only because it was moving so fast. We were in the steady and somewhat heavy rain here for about 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Any comparison to Hugo is laughable. I agree on the intensity. It'll not be close, but it may track fairly close to the one Hugo took and would still drop a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I agree on the intensity. It'll not be close, but it may track fairly close to the one Hugo took and would still drop a lot of rain. I've heard that and I don't see how. The trajectory, landfall,location and intensity won't be close IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I think the swirl around St. Croix will be *if not already is* the dominant LLC. I know recon is flying around and had said no, but I think the northern one may "win" out...btw, did a new video if yall want to take a peak, critique, hammer? LMBO! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like Ericka is no more.. Open wave, recon can't find a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Looks like Ericka is no more.. Open wave, recon can't find a closed circulation. :weep: :weep: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That went downhill fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 That went downhill fast... Yes didn't see that coming... but the disappointment sets us up for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Does seem a lot like the typical winter storm threats here. The models go back and forth with the location and intensity, and then ends up falling apart to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 RIP Erika Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Just to clarify the NHC hasn't downgraded it yet, I was just relaying info from the other thread. Recon was having difficulty finding a closed circulation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I'm still staying up for the Euro! Getting ready for winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Maybe the wave can make it to the east coast and reform as a storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Gonna get more action from that feature off that coast of NC this weekend than from Erika from the looks of recent trends. Hopefully things reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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