jburns Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Lets try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 0z Euro blows this one up to a Sub 955 storm off the SC/GA coast by mid next week. Could be off its rocker.. but nonetheless, that is an interesting solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Well the 5 day track is certainly a eyebrow raiser, but the models do all indicate a recurve, a very close recurve. Of course the models have been shifting west with the recurve just about every run so one or two more runs and its a hit.....likely the best chance for a land falling cane in the SE in quite some time. Here of the 06Z spaghetti plots and intensity forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 As mentioned the ECMWF shows an intense cane off the SE coast day ten with blocking ridge over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 This one looks like it could be a legit threat to the southeast and should be watched closely. The NHC track is interesting for sure. Maybe it will recurve after it goes over the Bahamas, but it looks a little too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I honestly see nothing wrong with the EURO track. **as of now** I think that is more than possible. **IF** Erika can hold it together. I trust the euro much more than GFS for synoptic features. I also think, the best spot for this to intensify, if it does make cane status, is on its approach to the Bahamas. The area should be well ventilated from the trof split to its SW and W and the upper ridge building over the top. Right now, Erika looks pretty bad! Its also driving west a good clip..might hit the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 As mentioned the ECMWF shows an intense cane off the SE coast day ten with blocking ridge over New England. Someone in the main thread mentioned that the blocking ridge also brings down an area of TUTT that would keep the storm from going bonkers, possibly even keeping it weak. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 There are models ( GFS) that kill Erika and others that go nuts with it ( EURO), the HWRF and GFDL are also pretty agressive. Sounds like the Euro is slower since it has the storm off the coast day 10 and the GFS has it being killed north of the Antilles but then appears to bring it back over Florida and then gets nutty with it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082506&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=187 HWRF is much more http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=187 as is the GFDL http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082506&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=187 The fact the NHC slowly brings it up in strength suggest they are concerned with the shear and its impact.....but its hard to ignore the models suggesting big cane too...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 New update on my Twitter and Facebook pages this morning. Erika looking rough now, but I think its got an interesting life ahead of her. I still think the best chances for significant strengthening will be as it approaches the Bahamas. SE needs to keep an eye on this one IMHO **if its still a TC at that point* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The 06z GFS tracks Erica into the E Gulf, across Florida and then up the coast, giving NYC a close miss. I would no longer put it in the destroy Erika camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 The 06z GFS tracks Erica into the E Gulf, across Florida and then up the coast, giving NYC a close miss. I would no longer put it in the destroy Erika camp. It does show her dissipate around the leewards then reforms it over Florida or in the eastern GOM then off the east coast moving SE maybe before doing a S curve up off the east coast.....you get dizzy trying to follow it. Hopefully it will smooth out over the next few runs lol..... If the Euro is right and there is a sub 950 storm off the SE coast with a blocking ridge building in off the NE coast this will end up a mega thread for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I'm 30% interested for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Matthew East Just now · Be prepared... you are going to see a lot of crazy model images and forecasts about Erika in coming days. However, all options on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Imagine if this made landfall in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 WxSouth 2 mins · Here's a 5 day water vapor loop, showing Danny and now, Erika. The pink color indicates very dry air, which probably helped kill off Danny. But that dry air is disappearing, moving west, in tandem, with the next storm. https://video.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xlp1/v/t42.1790-2/11941446_1120799811283406_832190966_n.mp4?efg=eyJybHIiOjEzMDMsInJsYSI6NTEyfQ%3D%3D&rl=1303&vabr=724&oh=3b6e0d47b44df990fcd8e07055f92078&oe=55DCAC47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 That looks like subtropical development of ex erika on thr 06 gfs with the an upper level trough tropical wave merger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 DT: Dangerus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 UK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Interesting ensemble plot that @MJVentrice posted on Twitter this morning. Basically putting all the Euro Ensemble members together. Real question in my mind is how well does it survive the shear. Already taking a toll on the system in reference to the convection being displaced to the south as 10-20kts of shear impacts it from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Seems like Erika should stay relatively weak until it reaches the Bahamas...I really think it could take off big time with that prof splitting out (in NE) and then backing SW over EGOM. Should be sitting just SE of FL...where does it go? I think it could get trapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 2 PM Updated Track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Imagine if this made landfall in the Carolinas. Hmmm: If you were in Charlotte in 1989, you won't need to imagine what it would be like. Dang scary flashbacks with that image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Hmmm: If you were in Charlotte in 1989, you won't need to imagine what it would be like. Dang scary flashbacks with that image! was it that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 2 PM Updated Track Someone correct me if I'm wrong but i don't think an updated track comes out on intermediate advisories- only the full ones at 11/5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Someone correct me if I'm wrong but i don't think an updated track comes out on intermediate advisories- only the full ones at 11/5... Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Track looks the same but looks like the timing slowed down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 18z tracks look juicy. and some storms have refired over the naked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 was it that bad?Yep and worse! I was living in Gastonia at the time and stayed up all night watching the storm and it was rough! Tree damage like I've never seen before and we had no power for 9 days and missed about 10 days of school. Wind gusts peaked at 70-85 , I believe I have read! The forward speed was quick and that's what kept the winds up that strong over land! A memory that will last a lifetime for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 outflow really improving as convection begins to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 18z tracks look juicy. and some storms have refired over the naked swirl. Need the two far west tracks in yellow and green to happen and curve just off the FL west coast to bring the upstate and NC piedmont any drought relief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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