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August 21, 2017 (was "2 Years From Today!")


rbowman

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6 hours ago, laissezpasser said:

What are the confidence intervals for cloud cover parameters of GFS, GEM, etc., at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24 hours out?The reason I ask is because I'm trying to build decision points (stay/relocate) into my plans.

Better than snow forecasts for sure! Even better than convection. Seriously, my main point was forecasting fair weather requires less precision than forecasting an exact storm track. However for an eclipse we need really good weather, so there are some nuances. Nashville is more optimistic this afternoon. Morristown already was this morning.

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Better have some pics in this thread when this is over...or even better pre-eclipse and during!

I do not plan on any serious photography. Goal is to remember the event as best I can without fiddling. Photos do not work due to such ranges of light within the corona. Memory experts also recommend looking around, not just staring at the corona. Change what we are looking at every several to 20-30 seconds. Check the rest of the sky and look at the horizons for the 360 sunrise/set effect. Of course return to the corona main show often. I can still remember the Aurora and comets decades ago, like last night, no photos. This is going to blow the doors off anything we have ever seen!

More tomorrow...

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39 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Better than snow forecasts for sure! Even better than convection. Seriously, my main point was forecasting fair weather requires less precision than forecasting an exact storm track. However for an eclipse we need really good weather, so there are some nuances. Nashville is more optimistic this afternoon. Morristown already was this morning.

I do not plan on any serious photography. Goal is to remember the event as best I can without fiddling. Photos do not work due to such ranges of light within the corona. Memory experts also recommend looking around, not just staring at the corona. Change what we are looking at every several to 20-30 seconds. Check the rest of the sky and look at the horizons for the 360 sunrise/set effect. Of course return to the corona main show often. I can still remember the Aurora and comets decades ago, like last night, no photos. This is going to blow the doors off anything we have ever seen!

More tomorrow...

I will snap a few pics.  Going to make an old shoe box viewer.  Not sure I posted this, but I may have....we inadvertently  took a pic of a partial eclipse while in Sanibel a few years back.  The sunset was outstanding that evening.  We forgot about the eclipse. Later, I saw an article about the eclipse.  It jogged my memory.  I hustled over to the computer to look at the pics...and there it was.  Clear as day.  What are the odds?

My wife is the family photographer by the way.  I almost always work from memory.  I would just like to see some experiences of others from the event.  The zoom feature along s computer filters allowed a pretty clear look considering we were not trying to photograph it.  

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13 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Better than snow forecasts for sure! Even better than convection. Seriously, my main point was forecasting fair weather requires less precision than forecasting an exact storm track. However for an eclipse we need really good weather, so there are some nuances. Nashville is more optimistic this afternoon. Morristown already was this morning.

I do not plan on any serious photography. Goal is to remember the event as best I can without fiddling. Photos do not work due to such ranges of light within the corona. Memory experts also recommend looking around, not just staring at the corona. Change what we are looking at every several to 20-30 seconds. Check the rest of the sky and look at the horizons for the 360 sunrise/set effect. Of course return to the corona main show often. I can still remember the Aurora and comets decades ago, like last night, no photos. This is going to blow the doors off anything we have ever seen!

More tomorrow...

That's why I'm working on a strategy. You can make photos work for the eclipse, but only if you're familiar with DSLR photography on manual mode and been doing it for years. I've been doing a lot of homework on how to prepare myself for shots I want from the event. Most people will do "bracket" technique (taking a set of pictures at speed of 1/4000 second to 1 second at same f length and ISO) and that should be good enough for the totality phase. I plan on bracketing the first 30 seconds (just to ensure I get something) and leave my camera running by using intervalometer so I can enjoy the last minute and half with my bare eyes instead of staring through the lens the whole time. I'll also do partial phase photography through a sun filter because it'll be a long hour leading up to the totality. 

However, I do not recommend trying to take photos of the event unless you know what you're doing in a quick manner. Definitely don't take pictures of partial phase without a solar filter (especially with a smartphone). 

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4 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

only 2 pages per year, pretty crazy!

Tortoise thread....Slow and stead wins the race!   Hey, it may get cloudy but at least we know w this event that it will 100% happen....and not have to follow 40 straight runs only to see it go OTS or to NC or to Ohio or just dissipate. LOL!!!!

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5 hours ago, laissezpasser said:

 

Somebody who knows more than me: Please explain why this isn't bad news for viewing from the Appalachian Valley?

I see that you are new, welcome aboard! In case you do not already know the forum explodes with activity every Winter ramping up as the leaves change and fall. Normally we would be in the summer time doldrums of days between posts but of course with the eclipse it seems the active season on this forum has got to an early start.

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Williamson County is still having school Monday.Now by all reports i've read, 1M-1.5M  is being predicted to flock into Nashville.I think i'm just going to give my kids a eclipse day "no school".I can't imagine the traffic.

Just checked my deck out and the sun is right on top of us basically.Going to have the "Happy Water"chilled .Gonna just stay put.

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CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z AUG18
                TOTAL   BNDRY    LOW     MID     HIGH    CONV   6 HR     SFC 
                CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD    QPF     RHU 
                (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-AUG    75              53      39      31            0.00      98    
FRI 18Z 18-AUG    83              30       0      75            0.01      54    
SAT 00Z 19-AUG     0               0       0       0            0.00      71    
SAT 06Z 19-AUG    13               0       0      13            0.00      76    
SAT 12Z 19-AUG    11               0      10       2            0.00      87    
SAT 18Z 19-AUG    28              21      18       0            0.00      53    
SUN 00Z 20-AUG     8               0       3       6            0.02      84    
SUN 06Z 20-AUG     0               0       0       0            0.00      95    
SUN 12Z 20-AUG    76              76       0       0            0.00      93    
SUN 18Z 20-AUG    35              13       2      24            0.00      42    
MON 00Z 21-AUG    11               0       4       8            0.00      72    
MON 06Z 21-AUG    35               0       0      35            0.00      83    
MON 12Z 21-AUG     2               1       1       1            0.00      85    
MON 18Z 21-AUG     5               0       5       0            0.00      39    
TUE 00Z 22-AUG    16               0      15       1            0.00      68    
TUE 06Z 22-AUG    73               0       3      72            0.00      80    
TUE 12Z 22-AUG     5               1       2       3            0.00      85    
TUE 18Z 22-AUG    25              18      17       0            0.00      50    
WED 00Z 23-AUG    75               0      25      69            0.03      72    
WED 06Z 23-AUG    11               0       4       7            0.00      88    
WED 12Z 23-AUG    47              29      19      25            0.01      93    

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            12Z AUG18
                TOTAL   BNDRY    LOW     MID     HIGH    CONV   6 HR     SFC 
                CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD    QPF     RHU 
                (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-AUG    62              53      36       9            0.00      98    
FRI 18Z 18-AUG    33              30       1       4            0.02      64    
SAT 00Z 19-AUG     1               1       1       0            0.00      78    
SAT 06Z 19-AUG    63               1       0      62            0.00      85    
SAT 12Z 19-AUG    10               0      10       0            0.00      85    
SAT 18Z 19-AUG    10               0       8       1            0.00      49    
SUN 00Z 20-AUG    20               7      15       3            0.00      81    
SUN 06Z 20-AUG    13               2       0      11            0.00      90    
SUN 12Z 20-AUG     1               1       0       0            0.00      89    
SUN 18Z 20-AUG    17              15      12       0            0.00      43    
MON 00Z 21-AUG     2               2       1       0            0.00      83    
MON 06Z 21-AUG     1               0       1       0            0.00      81    
MON 12Z 21-AUG     6               0       0       6            0.00      76    
MON 18Z 21-AUG    18               0       0      18            0.00      36    
TUE 00Z 22-AUG     4               1       2       1            0.00      79    
TUE 06Z 22-AUG    20               1       3      17            0.00      67    
TUE 12Z 22-AUG     5               0       1       4            0.00      85    
TUE 18Z 22-AUG    19              12      15       0            0.00      52    
WED 00Z 23-AUG    32               4      27       7            0.01      77    
WED 06Z 23-AUG    22               0      10      14            0.00      93    
WED 12Z 23-AUG    74              72       4       4            0.00      95 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z AUG18
                TOTAL   BNDRY    LOW     MID     HIGH    CONV   6 HR     SFC 
                CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD    QPF     RHU 
                (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-AUG    97              73      41      92            0.00      92    
FRI 18Z 18-AUG    36              17      30       1            0.05      70    
SAT 00Z 19-AUG    11              11       3       0            0.02      80    
SAT 06Z 19-AUG     2               2       0       0            0.00      90    
SAT 12Z 19-AUG    14              13       0       2            0.00      89    
SAT 18Z 19-AUG    16               0       2      14            0.00      50    
SUN 00Z 20-AUG     8               0       5       3            0.00      84    
SUN 06Z 20-AUG    34               1       1      33            0.00      92    
SUN 12Z 20-AUG    31              31       0       0            0.00      93    
SUN 18Z 20-AUG    18               4      16       0            0.00      46    
MON 00Z 21-AUG     6               0       3       3            0.00      79    
MON 06Z 21-AUG     0               0       0       0            0.00      85    
MON 12Z 21-AUG    10               3       0       7            0.00      84    
MON 18Z 21-AUG    28               1      20       9            0.00      47    
TUE 00Z 22-AUG    11               0       8       4            0.00      79    
TUE 06Z 22-AUG     6               3       4       1            0.00      87    
TUE 12Z 22-AUG     8               0       1       7            0.00      84    
TUE 18Z 22-AUG    18               0       8      11            0.00      51    
WED 00Z 23-AUG    16               5      15       0            0.00      75    
WED 06Z 23-AUG    48               1      13      41            0.00      86    
WED 12Z 23-AUG    27              14       4      14            0.01      92    



ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z AUG18
                TOTAL   BNDRY    LOW     MID     HIGH    CONV   6 HR     SFC 
                CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD   CLOUD    QPF     RHU 
                (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-AUG    89              25      24      84            0.00      96    
FRI 18Z 18-AUG    55              26      15      36            0.01      58    
SAT 00Z 19-AUG     0               0       0       0            0.00      68    
SAT 06Z 19-AUG    15               0       0      14            0.00      84    
SAT 12Z 19-AUG    25              25       0       0            0.00      92    
SAT 18Z 19-AUG    15               1       2      12            0.00      42    
SUN 00Z 20-AUG    31               0      22      11            0.00      62    
SUN 06Z 20-AUG    15               1       4      11            0.00      86    
SUN 12Z 20-AUG    16              15       1       0            0.00      91    
SUN 18Z 20-AUG    16              12      10       0            0.00      41    
MON 00Z 21-AUG     2               0       0       2            0.00      60    
MON 06Z 21-AUG     0               0       0       0            0.00      78    
MON 12Z 21-AUG     7               0       0       7            0.00      83    
MON 18Z 21-AUG    32               0      32       0            0.00      37    
TUE 00Z 22-AUG    23               1      22       0            0.00      63    
TUE 06Z 22-AUG     3               0       3       0            0.00      78    
TUE 12Z 22-AUG     1               0       0       0            0.00      86    
TUE 18Z 22-AUG    23               1      23       0            0.00      44    
WED 00Z 23-AUG    70               4      19      65            0.01      72    
WED 06Z 23-AUG    48               0       3      47            0.00      90    
WED 12Z 23-AUG    15               7       3       6            0.00      92    



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Euro introduces some mid-level clouds into my Chattanooga location now, coming from the Southeast. Hope it is not the dreaded jog north around 72 hours. Seems to hold most of the northern stream high clouds in Kentucky though. Meteorology favors the intersection of the totality centerline and the Tennessee River. 

GFS has mid-high clouds all over the place, and seems out of touch with pattern recognition. Kentucky high clouds, hopefully thin for them, are associated with modest westerlies aloft. Kentucky high clouds might break off as wisps into Tennessee, per the usual behavior south of westerlies. Southeast Coast mid-high clouds are with an easterly mid-level wave. Southeast clouds should have a sharper cut-off on their northwest side than the GFS is painting; hopefully that cutoff is down in Georgia not Tenn. Current progs show the best clear skies right on the centerline and the Tennessee River. 

The said area will of course be a total zoo with crowds, and is a slight shift from my initial meteorological target which was north of the center. Personal plans are still south of the centerline unless clouds chase me north toward the zoo. Avoiding crossing the centerline could help avoid traffic.

Now the mesoscale presents a possible concern for the west side of the Great Tennessee Valley. NAM wants to pop TCu over the Plateau and roll it into the west side of the Valley. Might bust, hopefully, due to reduced solar insolation. While they plan to run the HRRR with an eclipse adjustment, the NAM is running on full sunshine. Anyway south winds at the surface would allow Plateau TCu under normal sun. Mid-level light westerlies are forecast which would push it east into the Valley. Again it might bust, hopefully.

Meanwhile on the east side of the Valley, surface winds will be ever so slightly downslope off the Apps. TCu may pop over the Apps and definitely over the Blue Ridge. However those mid-level light westerlies would push cloud debris east. Therefore, it is possible the east side of the Great Valley is favored especially with lower PWs. Any synoptic mid-high clouds from the Southeast would of course destroy that forecast. 

West side of Valley is farther from the synoptic clouds but closer to possible Plateau TCu. East side of Valley may not have Cu problems, but must watch the synoptic clouds. If the PW forecast backs off just a bit south of I-24 I would feel better about the west side of the Valley. I keep mentioning west side because it keeps both I-75 and the centerline out of my travel path.

Hoping to watch it from Dayton, Tenn. It is a personal preference. Tellico Plains, Etowah or Delano are east side of Valley backups. Apparently Tellico Plains is ready for a crowd. Right? If synoptic trouble comes from the south then we position farther north. Again meteorology looks best at the centerline and the Tennessee River. Watts Bar with a boat, baby!

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22 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro introduces some mid-level clouds into my Chattanooga location now, coming from the Southeast. Hope it is not the dreaded jog north around 72 hours. Seems to hold most of the northern stream high clouds in Kentucky though. Meteorology favors the intersection of the totality centerline and the Tennessee River. 

GFS has mid-high clouds all over the place, and seems out of touch with pattern recognition. Kentucky high clouds, hopefully thin for them, are associated with modest westerlies aloft. Kentucky high clouds might break off as wisps into Tennessee, per the usual behavior south of westerlies. Southeast Coast mid-high clouds are with an easterly mid-level wave. Southeast clouds should have a sharper cut-off on their northwest side than the GFS is painting; hopefully that cutoff is down in Georgia not Tenn. Current progs show the best clear skies right on the centerline and the Tennessee River. 

The said area will of course be a total zoo with crowds, and is a slight shift from my initial meteorological target which was north of the center. Personal plans are still south of the centerline unless clouds chase me north toward the zoo. Avoiding crossing the centerline could help avoid traffic.

Now the mesoscale presents a possible concern for the west side of the Great Tennessee Valley. NAM wants to pop TCu over the Plateau and roll it into the west side of the Valley. Might bust, hopefully, due to reduced solar insolation. While they plan to run the HRRR with an eclipse adjustment, the NAM is running on full sunshine. Anyway south winds at the surface would allow Plateau TCu under normal sun. Mid-level light westerlies are forecast which would push it east into the Valley. Again it might bust, hopefully.

Meanwhile on the east side of the Valley, surface winds will be ever so slightly downslope off the Apps. TCu may pop over the Apps and definitely over the Blue Ridge. However those mid-level light westerlies would push cloud debris east. Therefore, it is possible the east side of the Great Valley is favored especially with lower PWs. Any synoptic mid-high clouds from the Southeast would of course destroy that forecast. 

West side of Valley is farther from the synoptic clouds but closer to possible Plateau TCu. East side of Valley may not have Cu problems, but must watch the synoptic clouds. If the PW forecast backs off just a bit south of I-24 I would feel better about the west side of the Valley. I keep mentioning west side because it keeps both I-75 and the centerline out of my travel path.

Hoping to watch it from Dayton, Tenn. It is a personal preference. Tellico Plains, Etowah or Delano are east side of Valley backups. Apparently Tellico Plains is ready for a crowd. Right? If synoptic trouble comes from the south then we position farther north. Again meteorology looks best at the centerline and the Tennessee River. Watts Bar with a boat, baby!

Biggest question I heard from ppl in town today was, "Wheres the crowd". A lot of skeptics here, totals have been from a 1k to 10k, with everyone wanting an answer. Water I believe could be an issue, but I hope the planners have got that in control...past events doesn't have a good track record on that subject lol. Regardless of where people "see" the eclipse, I believe the skyway will be full this weekend. Thanks for your updates.

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People will show up in Tellico Plains later Sunday or Monday morning. I know it is 3 day event, and today sounds interesting too, but they will come!

19 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Biggest question I heard from ppl in town today was, "Wheres the crowd". A lot of skeptics here, totals have been from a 1k to 10k, with everyone wanting an answer. Water I believe could be an issue, but I hope the planners have got that in control...past events doesn't have a good track record on that subject lol. Regardless of where people "see" the eclipse, I believe the skyway will be full this weekend. Thanks for your updates.

I am down to Lebanon, Tenn as a back-up. It is east of Nashville between two reservoirs and at a lower elevation, west of the Plateau. Missouri is dropped. Primary target remains the Tennessee Valley over here. Dayton remains favored (personal choice) with an option to move to Etowah on the other side, or anywhere we see fit. Tellico Plains sounds fun if traffic permits..

Lebanon seems to have lower Cu risk because Plateau stuff would tend to move east away from it. However, a few more high clouds are forecast that far north. Southern high clouds are greatly reduced on the progs. Tennessee Valley has lower high cloud risk. However Cu could move off the Plateau. Believe once we see HRRRX runs with the eclipse factored in, maybe this evening, the Valley will look a lot better. East side of Valley could escape that Plateau concern too, and I think any Smoky Mountain clouds would move east away from the Valley. Dayton is west side south of centerline crowd; Etowah to Tellico Plains is east side. If that HRRRX punts Plateau clouds it might be easier for me to get to Dayton than Etowah/TP from Chatty. We’ll see how I-75 and US-411 look.

Really most areas, especially lower elevations look good. NWS at both Morristown and Nashville seems more optimistic than the graphics models. NWS has about 20% cloud cover. Tabular (hourly) forecasts look nice!

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Final target: Etowah, Delano, Englewood, with Tellico Plains option for their big event. Last minute adjustments will be on Monday.

HRRRX still pops Cu over the Plateau despite the eclipse in the model. It is notoriously too juicy, so probably won't verify, but we will not take the chance west side of the Great Valley. VIS today shows the east side of the Great Valley quite clear. What we saw at 1pm Central or 2pm Eastern Sunday should be the Cu field at the same time Monday. Then it will decrease slightly, so it really looks like a good day everywhere. East side of Valley is slightly favored though.

High clouds are the other issue, more toward Kentucky, less toward the East Valley. Precip water minimum is forecast over our target area. No vertical velocity is forecast there. Little if any clouds are forecast for our target area.

Many of us have waited years, even decades for this event. Time to relax and enjoy. Let cloud anxiety fade and be at peace knowing it will be a gorgeous day. Even if a small Cu blocks, chances are some corona pokes out. Wispy high cloud will still show the dramatic black disk over sun. Either scenario still offers sunrise/set every direction and bright stars/planets. Odds are really good it will be clear at those precious 2 minutes anyway. This may be my last forecast post for the event. Good luck to all!

I am praying that everyone enjoys good weather and a spectacular eclipse. If there is anywhere faith and science meet, it is forecasting for the eclipse and certainly experiencing Totality.

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Alot of unhappy merchants and ppl in Tellico who thought they would get rich this weekend, comparing it to the Y2K hype. Traffic and visitors have been light for an August weekend. I honestly think the media did a poor job with this event, scaring alot of ppl with "traffic apocalypse" stories, and not focusing enough time to inform ppl of the difference about a partial and total. A lot of ppl today are still confused with the 99% is good enough mentality.

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Observing weather here this afternoon. Clouds started building over the 3000+ feet areas around noon and by 2:30 they'd expanded several miles east out from those peaks, the sun was mostly obscured for 2-3 hours between 2-5. If traffic is okay I'm going to the Lenior City/Loudon area. If it's bad, I'll go into Morgan County. Will get around 1:20 of totality there and there are some great views from the rim of the canyon at Lily Bridge just NW of Lancing.

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My dad and I made it to Etowah in good time. (4-1/2, hours) it seems at least to some extent the traffic jams and general chaos were exaggerated to our surprise. Tomorrow may tell another story of course. This evening despite traffic along overlooks we enjoyed the Cherohala Skyway going both ways. Originally we were going to attempt to settle on Huckleberry Knob but to our surprise not only was the parking lot taken, so was the mile leading to it and away from it. Originally we had booked on NC closing the shoulders of the skyway as TN did, however this was not the case, so any plans to sneak up the mountain in the wee hours of the morning were shot down. Of course, we had some what expected the possibility of this occurring so we will happily settle in Tellico Plains for the event. I must say I am pleasantly surprised by our prospects of seeing the eclipse in Tennessee, it would seem as though it is one of the best places if not debatably the best. (Dare I say) to view the eclipse east of the Rockies. Anyway, that's enough rambling for tonight. I wish a happy eventful day with clear eclipse viewing skies to everyone. Here we go! :sun::guitar:

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I found a place to camp about 10 miles south of Crossville. There is probably a few hundred people camped out here in this big field on a farm. You can see in all directions for a good distance. They had a big bonfire this evening. Wish today's weather can repeat for tomorrow. Hopefully CU buildup won't be a major problem but you never know. 2 minutes and 40 seconds of totality is forecast here.

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Set up on a hill in a cleared field in Niota. Great vantage point. Traffic was light this morning from Knoxville. Somoene just said it was really ramping up now, however. Amazed at the professional camera/telescope rigs set up around us. Puts my 400mm dslr lense to shame! Nothing to do now but wait! Enjoy, everyone!!!

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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