BlunderStorm Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Nine and a half days til the eclipse. I imagine now forecasts are becoming relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 MJO forecast Jax posted previous page is verifying, despite my wishcast it would go away. Now, the goal is for it to pass on through, kind of like those charts had by eclipse week. The weeklies and ensembles also hint at a just-in-time regime change. But will it be in time? Ridge tries to build from the Southeast to the Midwest, but lifting out of the Southeast somewhat as the process evolves. Upper height weakness trapped over the Valley would not be favorable. Ideal solution would be for a surface ridge to slide down under rising heights. Chances are something in between, perhaps timing a front. Eclipse Day gets into the Euro Op starting next run. Should get a better idea over the weekend. Looking for fair weather should be easier than looking for a storm, allowing confidence to increase a few more days out compared to tracking a storm. However in this tricky pattern, might be a long several days trying to reel in fair skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 I ended up finding a hotel in Hartwell, GA. We are driving up there the night before. Worst case the hotel location gets 1m40s ish of totality. We will try to get closer to the center in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Evening GFS runs are showing widespread rain in the valley region during the Monday the 21st time frame. Too early to tell but it's been a rainy, cloudy month to date and that doesn't look to let up a lot over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 I live in Tellico Plains and member of the fire dept...we have been having meetings with EMA and Forest Service. For anyone planning on going up the Skyway, the Forest Service as of right will close most of the areas mentioned (Buck Bald, Stratton Meadows, Wauchessi, so on) on Eclipse day, also no parking will be allowed anywhere up the mountain. My advice is stay away from that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 19 hours ago, TellicoWx said: I live in Tellico Plains and member of the fire dept...we have been having meetings with EMA and Forest Service. For anyone planning on going up the Skyway, the Forest Service as of right will close most of the areas mentioned (Buck Bald, Stratton Meadows, Wauchessi, so on) on Eclipse day, also no parking will be allowed anywhere up the mountain. My advice is stay away from that area. What on earth is the reasoning for this? Why would they close off one of the best viewing areas in the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 They are saying due to the high volume of traffic, that cars will get stuck due to not being able to turn around. The Astronomical Society is going to setup in town instead of up on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Cold front dropping down think our area in Tn might be ok,it's not written in stone THOUGH.I'd be more concerned for our folks NE GA and SC.Below map is total cloud cover,Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Boundary drops in over the weekend, but might retreat back on Monday. 12Z runs have a trend of faster front in Fri/Sat vs Sat/Sun. Unfortunately they also retreat it back north faster on Monday. Regrettably the Euro followed the GFS. This is absurd in August! Considering the Plains. MCSs are possible overnights, but just get in the subsidence and clearing Monday. Of course I really prefer locally in East Tenn. This has to be the first time the board has wished to reel in fair weather, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Boundary drops in over the weekend, but might retreat back on Monday. 12Z runs have a trend of faster front in Fri/Sat vs Sat/Sun. Unfortunately they also retreat it back north faster on Monday. Regrettably the Euro followed the GFS. This is absurd in August! Considering the Plains. MCSs are possible overnights, but just get in the subsidence and clearing Monday. Of course I really prefer locally in East Tenn. This has to be the first time the board has wished to reel in fair weather, lol! Sounds like I'm going to be in a precarious situation on Monday being down in NE GA. Hartwell, GA to Andersen, SC area is where I got my hotel. Hoping it stays fair and it's good exlipse watching g weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 We have a place reserved in a field in Niota, TN. Hoping for fair weather in order to enjoy the 2:36 of totality at that location. Good luck to all who are chasing and or observing this once in a lifetime event! On a side note, I purchased a 10 pack of certified eclipse glasses in April for $12 in preparation for this event and that same 10 pack is now selling at the same vendor for $100! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Okay guys I've have been really lazy in making plans for this event. Do y'all have any suggestions on a good location to view the eclipse from. I really wanted to go to the Smoky Mountains but it seems like traffic will make it a logistical problem if it ends up being cloudy and I have to move. Is a location on the plateau better? I kind of wanted to get to a place where you could see out in the distance a good ways. Also is there any local places like hardware stores that are selling the glasses? I fooled around and didn't order any online and now the prices have skyrocketed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 We have a place reserved in a field in Niota, TN. Hoping for fair weather in order to enjoy the 2:36 of totality at that location. Good luck to all who are chasing and or observing this once in a lifetime event! On a side note, I purchased a 10 pack of certified eclipse glasses in April for $12 in preparation for this event and that same 10 pack is now selling at the same vendor for $100! Hey kv!Do you know if there is any more spots available at that location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Five days out, it is time for a preliminary target which is of course definitely subject to change. Crossville to Kingston to Ft Loudon, Tenn. and surrounding area. (not Kingsport out of totality!) First of all I prefer the Great Valley lower elevations. Climo is a slightly fewer clouds in the afternoon vs higher elevations. Morning climo low clouds is of no concern. Avoiding afternoon Cu is paramount. Crossville on the Plateau is just the opposite, but should be considered for different reasons. Now, where in the Great Valley, or go Crossville on the Plateau? Mesoscale details are still in flux, but here is what looks likely. Pool of higher theta-E air (hot/humid) will reside from I-24 south, so from Nashville to Chattanooga. Up the whole atmosphere, precipitable water will be greatest just south of I-24. Fortunately BNA precip water (in totality) is less than that of Chatty, which is not in totality anyway. Mid-levels may be fairly dry. It is hard to get at that forecast on free sites and I'm not sure if Pivotal has it. I get it from sounding forecasts (energy vendor) and the BNA NWS briefing slides. Anyway dry mid-levels could be a huge savior here. Cu building should be somewhat slowed by the partial phases blocking sunshine. Squashing effect is greater in drier air. Now the low levels will be a humid mess, but perhaps dry mid-levels will help as heating is reduced leading up to totality. I would expect all the benefits, luck, blessings, whatever you call it, to be best the farther northeast one goes (within totality) in the Tennessee River Valley. Surface dews should be lower. Precipitable water will be lower. Mid-levels are driest up that way. Another possibility is up near Crossville. Dry mid-levels may give a greater benefit. Elevation hurts on initial Cu but may help on squashing it thanks to more temp drop. Otherwise Kingston to Loudon Tenn. On 8/14/2017 at 5:57 PM, LithiaWx said: Sounds like I'm going to be in a precarious situation on Monday being down in NE GA. Hartwell, GA to Andersen, SC area is where I got my hotel. As for GA/SC, farther downstate SC might be better, but your location is already off the Escarpment (good 2 avoid clouds). Get away from the Blue Ridge or Coast, so central SC. Elevation disco is same as Tennessee above, lower is better. Except avoid sea level with the sea breeze. If an obvious lee trough develops, which would be downslope, then Hartwell to Anderson is golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Really appreciate your insight nrgjeff!!! I had plans to be in Tellico Plains for the event but could do an adjustment this weekend. Do you think Tellico Plains at the foot of the mountains will possibly be a bad spot for cloud formation? Again...thanks for your input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 3 hours ago, 1234snow said: Okay guys I've have been really lazy in making plans for this event. Do y'all have any suggestions on a good location to view the eclipse from. I really wanted to go to the Smoky Mountains but it seems like traffic will make it a logistical problem if it ends up being cloudy and I have to move. Is a location on the plateau better? I kind of wanted to get to a place where you could see out in the distance a good ways. Also is there any local places like hardware stores that are selling the glasses? I fooled around and didn't order any online and now the prices have skyrocketed. Well, my original plan was to go up the Cherohala Skyway but in light of (possible) blocking or no parking I may go to Athens, view it on a lake or on the Cumberland Plateau. No matter where you decide to go keep your plans dynamic and able to change at a seconds glance of a cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 4 hours ago, 1234snow said: Hey kv! Do you know if there is any more spots available at that location? Hey Snow...check your messages! I'm really interested to see how bad the traffic will be Monday morning. I expect it to be horrendous, though I have been wrong before. I told my wife it will be an adventure, if nothing else! Clear skies everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Previously I wrote.. 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: ..Another possibility is up near Crossville. Dry mid-levels may give a greater benefit. Elevation hurts on initial Cu but may help on squashing it thanks to more temp drop. Otherwise Kingston to Loudon Tenn... Crossville is conditional on no orographic forcing. Crossville is on the relatively flat Plateau but be mindful of the wind direction. Just read Cu can drop off as much as 30% or more before Totality, which is more optimistic than my first thought. Works best on flat terrain or plains, where risk of any orographic forcing is low. Great Valley anyone? So, I am learning more on my lower elevation under lower precipitable water vs even flat Plateau. Still open to the latter, closer to that mid-level dry air. Probably be a day ahead decision based on high resolution convective allowing models. Finally the 30% cloud reduction works best on Cu, not stratus or mid-upper level clouds. 5 hours ago, waltrip said: Really appreciate your insight nrgjeff!!! I had plans to be in Tellico Plains for the event but could do an adjustment this weekend. Do you think Tellico Plains at the foot of the mountains will possibly be a bad spot for cloud formation? Again...thanks for your input! Tellico Plains is below the mountains. Ridges are nearby but the town is in the valley. Will depend on wind direction at different levels. Low level winds could be upslope, downslope or neutral. Mid-level winds influence clouds forming on the mountains. High-res models should pick up on things a day or two ahead (over the weekend). I would not give up on Tellico Plains if you got a spot, unless the weather dictates a reposition. Synopic wx note: the 12Z model suite still favors Kingston to Loudon for a balance of 2 minutes goal, and lower moisture all levels of the atmo. More tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Jeff bringing the heat today. Thanks for an outstanding early forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 I live in Tellico and been watching the models closely, Typical summer pattern looks likely to me and on those days normally areas along Athens to Madisonville, along with the mountains form clouds quicker. As long as I've studied the micro climates here locally, I believe it's due to a ridge (Starrs Mt) that runs through these areas aiding in the formation of clouds from upsloping due to south/southwest winds. Tellico sits in a bowl so the downsloping tends to slow the formation. The park service has will close some areas to vehicle traffic, but allow foot traffic. Also, glasses can't be found anywhere in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Okay, I've been all over Kingsport and not a store has the glasses left. I really messed up on this one. Any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 hour ago, 1234snow said: Okay, I've been all over Kingsport and not a store has the glasses left. I really messed up on this one. Any suggestions? Go to an eclipse party/viewing event/popular destination and bum a pair off someone. Most folks I know who bought eclipse viewers bought them in packs of 5, 10, or more to guard against damage and to share with observing neighbors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Go to an eclipse party/viewing event/popular destination and bum a pair off someone. Most folks I know who bought eclipse viewers bought them in packs of 5, 10, or more to guard against damage and to share with observing neighbors.Thank you for the reply. I just found a bunch at a gas station in Church Hill, TN for 5 dollars a pop. That was the only place I know of that still had them. Lowe's said every store from Wytheville, VA to Knoxville was sold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 I went way overboard and bought 500 glasses 6 months ago for this. Only have 40 left for our party on Watts Bars. Don't want to jinx myself but I'm starting to feel confident we may be able to enjoy the eclipse at our home. Not like driving to the mountains in the winter for snow. I've enjoyed reading everyone's opinion and analysis on this site for the last 4+ years. Hope everyone has a wonderful Monday and a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 I feel oddly optimistic today, not because of the forecast but because I know it will be a wonderful day. The excitement is building and it is not empty hype. I am at peace whatever happens because it is going to be amazing no matter what. Primary target remains Kingston to Loudon. Meteorology is the same. However we have friends near Dayton, Tenn. Hoping to be able to do it from there but the forecast is still better on the north side of totality. Nashville NWS remains pessimistic. MRX strikes an optimistic tone, which makes sense with the forecasts. MRX even forecasts better than climo clouds and precip. MRX forecast is approaching better Nebraska climo. Love it! Eclipse is Day 5 and the models have nudged the boundary, clouds and scattered thundershowers just south of totality. In winter models like to go south about day 5 then back north. Please not this time. Thankfully expect less change in summer. Plus models show rising 500 heights. One can trust the 500 level pretty well. Bodies of water can help subdue Cu. Watts Bar Lake is great if you have a boat. Also the approaching deep partial phases should subdue Cu. We have building heights which should mean shallower than average Cu. Then partial phases can go to work from there. Now a few models have some high clouds. If the choice is between mid-high clouds and early Cu no rain, I would gamble* with Cu dissipating slightly. Mid-high clouds are not affected much by the actual eclipse (unless they are decreasing anyway). Cu should decrease as much as 30% in the partial phases. While the low-mid levels look drier north, the high cloud forecast must also be watched. Target is based on north being better at all levels. If high clouds are forecast north I might gamble* on the Cu farther south. Right now based on lower precipitable water and lower elevation, still favor Kingston-Loudon. If Crossville looks obviously drier despite elevation, might consider their Cu would decrease more. Again, all is subject to the high cloud forecast. * Gamble is a calculated risk in this instance, but gamble sounds more fun and exiting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Thanks Jeff...I really enjoy your write ups. I'm going to be about 5 miles east of the plateau and on Watts Bar Lake north of Spring City. It seems that I'm in a favorable location. Hopefully it pans out. I'm going to watch those model updates and hope for low dew points at the surface and at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laissezpasser Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 On 8/11/2017 at 9:10 PM, nrgjeff said: ... allowing confidence to increase a few more days out compared to tracking a storm. What are the confidence intervals for cloud cover parameters of GFS, GEM, etc., at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24 hours out? The reason I ask is because I'm trying to build decision points (stay/relocate) into my plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 12z GFS indicating dry air at 700mb leading up to and at 2 pm on Monday. With the sun being more than halfway through partial eclipse, maybe this will suppress the Cu like Jeff indicated. Dew points at the surface are also showing low to mid 60's. I noticed that small windfield vortex in W. Tennessee. Is that what's pulling in the dry air from the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 16 hours ago, 1234snow said: Thank you for the reply. I just found a bunch at a gas station in Church Hill, TN for 5 dollars a pop. That was the only place I know of that still had them. Lowe's said every store from Wytheville, VA to Knoxville was sold out. How many did you buy? Have any extra's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Better have some pics in this thread when this is over...or even better pre-eclipse and during! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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